The Real Effect

Tensions Rising In the Gulf as the US Builds Its Forces

2012-01-31T10:30:00.000-08:00

A massive and expensive buildup of troops in the immediate area around Iran -

While quietly casting lines to draw Tehran into talks on their nuclear dispute, PresidentBarack Obama is reported exclusively by DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s military and Washington sources to have secretly ordered US air, naval and marine forces to build up heavy concentrations on two strategic islands – Socotra, which is part of a Yemeni archipelago in the Indian Ocean, and the Omani island of Masirah at the southern exit of the Strait of Hormuz.

Socotra is situated 80 kilometers east of the Horn of Africa and 380 kilometers southeast of the Yemeni coastline. It lies athwart the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. A military base there is in a position to oversee the shipping moving in and out of those strategic naval waterways.

Western military sources familiar with the American buildup on the two strategic islands tellDEBKA-Net-Weekly that, although they cannot cite precise figures, they are witnessing the heaviest American concentration of might in the region since the US invaded Iraq in 2003.

Then, 100,000 American troops were massed in Kuwait ahead of the invasion. Today, those sources estimate from the current pace of arrivals on the two island bases, that 50,000 US troops will have accumulated on Socotra and Masirah by mid-February. They will top up the 50,000 military already present in the Persian Gulf region, so that in less than a month, Washington will have some 100,000 military personnel on the spot and available for any contingency.

US air transports are described as making almost daily landings on Socotra and Masirah. They fly in from the US naval base of Diego Garcia, one of America's biggest military facilities, just over 3,000 kilometers away. The US military presence in the region will further expand in the first week of March when three US aircraft carriers and their strike groups plus a French carrier arrive in the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea: They are theUSS Abraham Lincoln, USS Carl Vinson, USS Enterprise and the Charles de Gaulle nuclear-powered aircraft carrier.

A fourth US carrier will be standing by in the Pacific Ocean, a few days' sailing time from the water off Iran's coast.

The Real Effect
At a bare minimum this is a bare threat against Iran in case they decide to get upset and defend Syria if NATO decides to ~~invade~~ help. This way, Iran has to at least think twice before they decide to come to Syria's aid. However, given the extreme amount of chaos that the Regime Changers have been causing in Iran lately, I am more inclined to think that the direct target is Iran. (Not that Syria won't be invaded)

Are We Responsible?

2012-01-30T10:30:00.000-08:00

We kicked off 2012 with the following -

Yearly Theme: Are we responsible for our own actions?
This question becomes the fundamental litmus test for most every action and decision in the future.

Following this, we move to the dictionary, that long forgotten instrument that standardizes communication among us lowly proles, that we might understand one another when we converse about, ya know, things.

Responsible -
adjective
1. answerable or accountable, as for something within one's power, control, or management (often followed by to or for ): He is responsible to the president for his decisions.
2.involving accountability or responsibility: a responsible position.

Policy -
noun
1. a definite course of action adopted for the sake of expediency, facility, etc.: We have a new company policy.
2. a course of action adopted and pursued by a government, ruler, political party, etc.: our nation's foreign policy.

Authority
noun.
1. the power to determine, adjudicate, or otherwise settle issues or disputes; jurisdiction; the right to control, command, or determine.
2. a power or right delegated or given; authorization: Who has the authority to grant permission?

And to explore these definitions, we move to our story -

Mustang Public Schools officials said a ninth-grader snapped a photo of a snoozing substitute with a cellphone last Friday at Mustang Mid-High School.The student was later suspended.

However, officials said, "A student may possess a telecommunication device while on school premises, but the use of a telecommunication device is not permitted during the school day."

The Real Effect
Let's begin by assuming a random person, Bob, exists. Bob, according to our Declaration of Independence and Constitution, is born with a certain set of rights. We'll identify them with letters, ABCD. Now simply by virtue of the fact the he exists, Bob possesses these rights.

For the sake of argument, Bob gets married to Jane and in doing so, he gives control of right "D" to Jane. This ownership is conditional upon the marriage and its validity. At this point, Bob has rights ABC but has subjected D to Jane. Bob might permanently or temporarily transfer these rights. For example, Bob has given control of his finances to Jane and in doing so Jane has authority over his finances. Why? Because Bob gave them to Jane.

So now Jane has ABCD + (Bob)D rights. But in gaining (Bob)D, she also gained (Bob)D responsibility. Put simply, Jane cannot resource pillage Bob's rights and then throw Bob to the side of the road because those rights come with responsibilities. If she were to do this, she would rightly be reviled as a thief and fraud.

To cope with this, Jane then decides to implement a policy that states she can take all of Bob's money and ditch him. Does this have any bearing on her responsibility? No, of course not. Only Bob can release her of that and he has done no such thing. So Jane's personal policy that states it's ok to rob Bob is entirely irrelevant.

So returning to our original story, parents have given right "D" to a school to educate their children. They pay for this via taxation and as dutiful employers, have a right to a certain product. I think we can all assume that "sleeping" is not that product. So the recipient of one of these services, the student, documents poor performance utilizing his cell phone. In essence, the teacher is committing fraud against the parents and student.

When confronted with this information, the school blows the dust off it's policy book and states - Yes, you may possess a phone, but you may not use it. And since you used it, you broke our policy and we get to assess a penalty against you.

What?!? Should be the correct response to the school. Are you nuts? You caused the condition that required documentation (camera) to prove that you're robbing us! For you to attempt to preemptively punish us is abject lunacy!

One would think that this is the way people would think, but in this ever "complicated" (read as uninformed) world in which we live, the charlatans are running the show.

Prove things? They often scoff. We'll make it so hard for you to do that, you're stuck with us no matter WHAT we give you! And if you succeed, we'll ruin you.

And at this point, the problem and its symptoms come squarely into view.

Problem
Who is responsible?

Answer
Let's follow the chain....
Parents -> Government -> School -> Administrator -> Teacher

Ah, we see that the correct party is being held to the fire. In response to this, we have the school attempting to free itself from that responsibility. But a nasty little thing happens when you try to get away from responsibility, you lose your rights as ownership defaults to the last person to possess them.This in turn creates many symptoms which often become crisis.

Symptoms
Parents - Why should we take our children to school, why should we pay taxes on a non service, why should we trust government AT ALL?

In failing to defend the parents rights, the school has destroyed the justification for its very existence.

Additionally, they have created a conflict of interest for the administrators. Just who do you support, the student or the teacher. After all, the policy says no using phones. And those teachers have it really hard. It is this conflict that turns a productive relationship into an unproductive one. This is demonstrated in the fact that the child is now less educated. Apply this out for a few generations and soon you have a system that takes money from one group and gives it to another for the sole purpose of existence. That is properly understood as a leech. And really, other then fish, who likes leeches?

Government should exist to enforce the ramifications of the contracts agreed upon. Not to draw up new ones itself or to direct policy. Quite frankly it should have no pony at this show.

Yet here we stand in 2012 and people just don't get it.

Real GDP increased 1.7 percent in 2011 (that is, from the 2010 annual level to the 2011 annual level), compared with an increase of 3.0 percent in 2010.

Got that? Growth is half of what it was last year and that's only because government is spending money like an 18 year old stripper. $52,409 is what each person "owes" the Federal government. But do they really owe this? The correct answer is yes and no. And therein is where people usually check out.

You see the banks via the Federal Reserve have stolen rights, in the case of Bob, rights C and D and left us with A and B. Additionally, they dislike the responsibility that goes along with those rights. The government, our employees, cannot simultaneously claim that they are "in charge" or "leaders" while passing the bill to us. In doing so, they are seizing the power via fraud, spending the spoils on junk (lots of it), lying to you about the situation and when you finally find out, they try to imprison or kill you.

You do not owe fraudulent debt. Period. You did not incur that debt, they did. Many times in complete defiance of your stated wishes. They are rogue. They are usurpers.

The correct way to deal with these ilk is to 1) Expose them 2) Arrest them 3) Try them and finally 4) Administer justice

Until we do this, we are just wasting time and resources.

Egypt Cracks Down On US "Democracy"

2012-01-27T04:30:00.000-08:00

Egypt makes a move -

Six Americans working for publicly funded U.S. organizations promoting democracy in Egypt have been barred from leaving the country, provoking angry demands in Washington that Cairo's new military rulers stop "endangering American lives".

Do you think it has something to do with this?

A month after police raided the Cairo offices of the IRI, NDI and eight other non-governmental organizations, it raises the stakes for Washington, which had already indicated it may review the $1.3 billion it gives the Egyptian military each year if the probe into alleged breaches of local regulations went on.

'You're going to investigate us? Then we'll just stop sending the checks.'

And whose hands are all over this?

John McCain, the leading Republican senator who chairs the IRI...

Of course, he's outraged at such things -

...voiced "alarm and outrage" at a "new and disturbing turn" which included a travel ban on Sam LaHood, the group's Egypt director and son of President Barack Obama's transport chief.

The Real Effect
"(O)rganizations promoting democracy" indeed. This makes one wonder if the Egyptian government is disposing of US (CIA?) assets that helped the revolution start in the first place? Goodness know that George Soros is up to his eyeballs in the stuff. We've covered that in the past-

The American Embassy in Cairo helped a young dissident attend a US-sponsored summit for activists in New York, while working to keep his identity secret from Egyptian state police.

On his return to Cairo in December 2008, the activist told US diplomats that an alliance of opposition groups had drawn up a plan to overthrow President Hosni Mubarak and install a democratic government in 2011.

Almost one year ago, we posted the following in response to a bloody uprising (The start of the "Arab Spring") -

History indeed. It is very telling that there is a revolt in Egypt of all places. With the Coptic Christian murders on the 1st (New Year) precluding this seeming evolution of this country, one doesn't have to think very hard to see some parallels to some sort of magical thinking here.

...with dead Christians in the wings, the Egyptian army firing on its people and the Pharaoh seemingly stepping down, people need to take notice because this could get ugly fast.

And boy did it get ugly fast. There were more insurrections, overthrows and wars then a person could shake a stick at. The Ivory Coast, Bahrain, Syria just to name a few. Of course the magical implications of the Libyan operation took the cake -

Of course the timing of this has nothing to do with the so called Supermoon that was present that day. Nor does the fact that it's called Operation Odyssey Dawn mean a whole lot to the astronomically inclined among us. (Nor the new "suns" created in the Fukushima incident.)Think of this a sort of magical invocation, conjuring the spirits of war and death.

Naturally anyone who had read the Religious Wars Series would have realized that this was coming. Look up and down the coast of where these events are happening and you quickly get an idea of why things are going the way they are. With Libya more-or-less conquered and Egypt somewhat in line, the only country left to beat on the way to the Iranian prize is Syria.

Bankrupt Nations Scramble To Bailout Other Bankrupt Nations

2012-01-26T16:00:00.000-08:00

Portugal Pops

2012-01-26T11:00:00.000-08:00

Portugal goes the way of Greece -

As the world awaits resolution out of Greece and the debt exchange offer which even if passed today would have to cram 6 months of actual work into 54 days, the global bond vigilantes are not sticking around, and continue to attack the next weakest link - Portugal, whose 10 Year bonds just passed 15% in yield, and were trading well below 50 cents of par with CDS hitting a new record of 1350 bps.

So if one does use Greece as a benchmark how long does Portugal have? As the third chart shows, the last time 10 year GGBs passed 15% was back in August. So Portugal has 6 months. Give or take.

The Real Effect
I would say that it's fun watching so-called "experts" predict recovery and the like only to fall flat on their face just a year later. The down side to that is that these are not companies, these are countries inhabited by people. Let's go back to late 2007 and Vicente Fox again -

NAFTA has been good, as a matter of fact we should have a new vision, go further, integrating and working together to build a better future for both. "That happened with Spain and with the European Union with them joining the union and having access to those huge cohesive bonds, they were able to overcome poverty and today Spain, or Ireland or Greece or Portugal are all very successful nations, what you need is a little bit of solidarity." Stewart then went on to ask "Would you like to see a North American Union with the U.S. Mexico, and Canada, you want Canada in there?" To which Fox responded "Yes long term, yes."

This interview was given where the little red circle is in the chart below. Note what comes next...

Namely a 50%+ drop in the markets. At this time, this sight and this author were being lambasted as "crazy", "conspiratorial" and "tin-foil hat wearing" What are you talking about? They would say. Market collapse? Tyranny? Uh yeah, that about sums it up.

More importantly, compare Vicente's observation of "poverty destruction" with the following -

...the EU's first summit of 2012, to be held on Jan 30, will focus on finding ways to kickstart growth and create jobs across the 27-country union, which is on the brink of recession and has average unemployment of 10 percent, rising to 45 percent among the young in countries such as Spain.

Half of these young people are unemployed. HALF.

Let that sink in for a second because the same is true over here. Most of the reason why we have not witnessed the proverbial crud hitting the fan yet is precisely because Europe is that much worse. Yet we have these liars on stage parading again telling you that it's "your fault" because you want services that you paid for. It's businesses fault, not Wall St., for not hiring you and being selfish. It's the rich people for not paying enough. Of course all of this is pure class warfare from ALL sides, not just the left.

The left would have you believe that it is noble to dwell in poverty because you aren't "hurting" anyone.
The right would have you believe that it is noble to steal because, 'We need it'.

Of course, the solution will be to plunge the American hemisphere into a totalitarian dictatorship just like Europe.

A SC Mayor, Gingrich and the Globalists

2012-01-24T10:30:00.000-08:00

Consider the following for a moment -

The Times and Democrat of Orangeburg reports that Norway Mayor Jim Preacher was stopped for speeding on Wednesday. After the traffic stop, Norway turned on the blue lights and siren in his vehicle and pulled the trooper over.

Norway acknowledges he was speeding, but says he was acting in his capacity as the town's chief constable.

The Real Effect
Now what does this have to do with Gingrich? Let's look at the following -

Mr. Gingrich, a former House speaker, on Tuesday morning threatened not participate in any future debates with audiences that have been instructed to be silent. That was the case on Monday, when Brian Williams of NBC News asked the audience of about 500 people who assembled for a debate in Tampa to hold their applause until the commercial breaks.

In an interview with the morning show “Fox and Friends,” Mr. Gingrich said NBC’s rules amounted to stifling free speech. In what has become a standard line of attack for his anti-establishment campaign, Mr. Gingrich blamed the media for trying to silence a dissenting point of view.

As the Drudge Report is aptly pointing out, this isn't exactly unprecedented.

At the start of the Sept. 26, 2008, debate Jim Lehrer explained: “The audience here in the hall has promised to remain silent, no cheers, no applause, no noise of any kind, except right now, as we welcome Senators Obama and McCain.”

Once again, you may ask, what does one have to do with the other? Easy, both demonstrate the symptoms of the overall problem in American politics. Using the power of the law to get what you want.

In the first example we have a mayor, obviously torqued because he was pulled over. So he decided to show that trooper who his boss was by returning the favor. This is not justice. This is not equity. This is a raw use of power to send a message, I am above all this.

In the example provided with Gingrich, we see the same dynamics at work. Gingrich routinely throws out the moral outrage card in an attempt to sway his audience into taking his side. This has nothing to do with what actually happens in these situations, it has everything to do with taking control. Again and again we see this in Gingrich's private life and public. He doesn't care for the situation so he aggressively tries to gain control so that he can 'right' things. Of course opposing him is the equivalent of opposing America. Never mind the sort of idiots that feel marriage should be a federal issue support an individual such as Newt should be in charge of this sort of nonsense. After all, what could be wrong about having a foreign army defending a country they neither love nor reside in?

It is no small wonder then, that most discussions start not with questions of justice or law, but rather appeals to authority and the 'good of society' in an attempt to avoid the relevant issue of justice.

As a final note, perhaps John Stewart can shed some sort of light on this.

The Daily Show
Get More: Daily Show Full Episodes,Political Humor & Satire Blog,The Daily Show on Facebook

Rand Paul 'Detained' By the TSA

2012-01-23T10:30:00.000-08:00

Are the sides being drawn?

Texas Congressman and current Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul – Sen. Rand Paul’s father – placed a post on Facebook about the news as well. “My son Rand is currently being detained by the TSA at the Nashville Airport,” Ron Paul posted. “I’ll share more details as the situation unfolds.”

Ron Paul adds, via Twitter, that the TSA detained his son “for refusing full body pat-down after anomaly in body scanner.”

The Real Effect
I love the situation in this. A sitting US Senator is 'detained' by a quasi-gestapo like agency that is supported by the supposed conservatives who wish to 'keep America free'. This is exactly why these agencies are such a horrific idea. They inevitably turn into tools that the government can use to repress another group, be it liberal, moderate or conservative. This action to protect our 'safety' and simultaneously removes our liberty, turns into the exact mechanism that ultimately consumes our safety. Any semi-interested student of history knows this in a heartbeat with minimal effort.

The irony that is present in a system being espoused by the so-called freedom lovers that would see one of its own representatives possibly jailed over a so-called discrepancy on a DNA wrecking scanner and yet maintains a policy of systemic murder over its unborn children and southern border citizens is not just palpable, it's downright disgusting.

If we cannot trust the individuals that make the laws that govern our society, who can we trust?

Thank you Rand for giving an incredibly public face to this atrocious issue.

Iran - Current Military Actions

2012-01-20T10:30:00.000-08:00

Here is a brief and expanding history of the recent U.S./Iranian conflict.

Jan 27, 2012 - Iran to pass law halting sales of oil to Europe.
Jan 24, 2012 - India is the first buyer of Iranian oil to agree to pay for its purchases in gold instead of the US dollar. China is expected to follow suit.
Jan 23, 2012 - The USS Enterprise is heading to the Persian Gulf region in a direct message to Tehran.
Jan 23, 2012 - A 43-year-old Iranian military officer, Raze Ali Fimani, was killed when motorcyclists reportedly fired shots at a group of soldiers who were headed to an air force base.
Jan 23, 2012 - A senior Iranian official said Iran would “definitely” close the Strait of Hormuz if an EU oil embargo disrupted the export of crude oil. (Notice the "if" part of the statement. Iran is basically saying 'Attack us financially and we will respond militarily')
Jan 23, 2012 - The EU has agreed to freeze the assets of the Iranian central bank and ban all trade in gold and other precious metals with the Iranian Central Bank and other public bodies in Iran.
Jan 22, 2012 - The USS Abraham Lincoln passed through the Strait of Hormuz and entered the Gulf without incident. In addition, the HMS Argyll, a Type 23 frigate from the Royal Navy, a guided missile cruiser and two destroyers from the US Navy completed the flotilla, along with one warship from the French navy.
Jan 20, 2012 - The Pentagon admits that a new US commando team is operating near Iran.
Jan 20, 2012 - The Obamaadministration is considering closing the U.S. Embassy in Damascus, Syria.
Jan 19, 2012 -Large armor movements are witnessed in Santa Cruz.
Jan 18, 2012 - The US aircraft carrier, USS Lincoln, arrives in the Gulf, bringing the total to 3.
Jan 13, 2012 - Russia has claimed that NATO is preparing to impose a no-fly zone in Syria to protect rebel fighters.
Jan 12, 2012 - A senior U.S. official said that the latest round of American sanctions are aimed at shutting down Iran’s central bank.
Jan 12, 2012 - IDF chief of staff Benny Gantz testified in closed session to the Israeli Knesset’s foreign affairs and defense committee that Israel was engaged in sabotaging Iran’s nuclear program through a series of “unnatural” acts
Jan 12, 2012 - A massive buildup of forces in the area.

The aircraft carriers USS Abraham Lincoln and CVN 70 Carl Vinson which has arrived by way of Hong Kong are joining the area.
9,000 US troops including airmen, missile interceptor teams, marines, technicians and intelligence officers are scheduled to land in Israel in the coming weeks.

Jan 11, 2012 - Iranian nuclear scientist Prof. Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan, deputy director of the first uranium enrichment facility at Natanz, was killed after a magnetic bomb was attached to the side of his car by two men on a motorcycle. (Israeli sources close to Jewish writer Richard Silverstein point to Mujahedeen-e Khalq (MEK) and the Mossad.)
Jan 10, 2012 - The IAEA- Iranian officials earlier said the Fordo plant, deep inside the mountains near the central Iranian city of Qom, was build to produce 20-percent uranium needed for a research reactor in Tehran, which produces medical isotopes to treat cancer patients.
Jan 9, 2012 - Iran says it will no longer accept the U.S. dollar as payment for its oil shipments to India, Japan and China.
Jan 9, 2012 - Iran has begun uranium enrichment at a new underground site built to withstand possible airstrikes
Jan 9, 2012 - Iran has sentenced alleged CIA spy, 28 year old Amir Hekmati, to death.
Jan 9, 2012 - The Russian carrier Admiral Kuznetsov anchored at Syria’s Tartus port along with the destroyer Admiral Chabanenko and frigate Yaroslav Mudry.

Dawoud Rajha was received on the deck by a guard of honor of marines under a flyover of Russian Su-33 and Su-25 fighter-bombers

Jan 9, 2012 - France consigned an air defense destroyer Forbin to the waters off Tartus”
Jan 8, 2012 - Defense Secretary Leon Panetta says is not yet building a bomb and called for continued diplomatic and economic pressure to persuade Tehran not to take that step.
Jan 8, 2012 - RQ-4 Global Hawk UAV, took off from the USS Stennis aircraft carrier for for a Broad Aerial Maritime Surveillance Mission (BAMS) over the coasts of Iran.
Jan 8, 2012 - Ali Ashraf Nouri, a senior commander in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, told Khorasan daily on Sunday that the Iranian government has decided to close the strategic Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Persian Gulf if the country’s oil exports are blocked.
Jan 8, 2012 - Philip Hammond, the UK's Defence Secretary, warned the regime in Tehran that Britain will not tolerate the ‘very significant consequences’ if it fulfils a threat to block the Strait of Hormuz.

The HMS Daring is a Type 45 destroyer that has the world’s most sophisticated naval radar is sent to the Gulf.
French Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier is dispatched to the area as well.

Jan 7, 2012 - Iran launches security exercises on Afghanistan border. Mohammad Pakpour, commander of the Revolutionary Guards' ground forces, said the "Martyrs of Unity" exercises near Khvat, 60 km (40 miles) from Afghanistan, were "aimed at boosting security along the Iranian borders," Fars reported.
Jan 6, 2012 - Forces with the USS John C. Stennis aircraft carrier strike group, the target of Tehran's threat, rescued 13 Iranian fishermen from Somali pirates days after passing through the Strait.
Jan 6, 2012 - Rear Admiral Ali Fadavi, naval commander for the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps announces wargames, The Great Prophet, to coincide with the joint US/Israeli Austere Challenge 12 in February.
Jan 5, 2012 - Iran via Turkey, announces its willingness to negotiate with the U.S.
Jan 3, 2012 - Iran threatened to take action if the US aircraft carrier USS Stennis which "moved to the Sea of Oman because of our drill returns to the Persian Gulf." Army chief Lt. Gen. Ataolla Salehi said:" Iran will not repeat this warning."

The USS Bataan and USS Makin Island are also in the Sea of Oman

Jan 2, 2012 - The Rial was widely reported to be trading down 12% in the black market from Saturday's rate, and Mehr news service reported that housing prices had tumbled 20% during the last few weeks.
Jan 2, 2012 - Last days of the 10 day Iranian drills.

Iran tested its Qader missile, a long-range sea-to-shore missile, and the surface-to-surface Nour missile.

Dec 31, 2011 - Obama signs the NDAA into law. It contains sanctions against Iran's oil sales by companies that trade in Iran. (An act of economic and therefore actual war)
Dec 28, 2011 - The USS Stennis transited the Strait of Hormus and entered the Sea of Oman where Iran was staging a naval drill.
Dec 24, 2011 - Iran launches 10 day military drills.
Dec 22, 2011 - Iran announces military drills to be held in the Persian Gulf.
Dec 21, 2011 - A U.S. missile hit an oil depot in the southwest village of Abadan.

Two rockets reportedly hit the village of Manyuhi near the border of Iraq’s al-Faw Peninsula near the Persian Gulf and the Iraqi city of Basra.
“In the border city of Arvand-Kenar, the invading American and British airplanes violated the airspace of the Islamic Republic of Iran three times,” a commander told the Islamic Republic News Agency.

Dec 19, 2011 - Former CIA and current DOD head Leon Panetta announces that Iran will have a nuclear weapon within a year and the U.S. will not rule out a military attack.
Dec 13, 2011 - Iran is reported to have closed the Gulf, oil spikes and the report is soon retracted.
Dec 12, 2011- Iran unveils footage of the captured US drone. Barrack Obama demands the drone's return, Iran subsequently declares the drone Iran's property.

Iran said its new Abadan refinery will raise its daily output of high-octane gasoline by almost 12,600 barrels by January 20, 2012. (The same location is hit by a missile 9 days later)

Dec 11, 2011 - Blast hits Iranian steel plant in Yazd, killing 7 wounding 12
Dec 5, 2011 - Iran moves to a war footing.
Dec 4, 2011 - Failed US UAV drone (RQ-170 Sentinel) overflight, which which is shot down over 140 miles into Iranian territory. (Of course the US denies it, they deny that they had advanced warning of the bombings on Pearl Harbor until historical truth bites them in the rear end. Also of particular note is the US attacks on Pakistan troops just a few days earlier.)

NATO command in Afghanistan released a terse statement Sunday: "The UAV to which the Iranians are referring may be a US unarmed reconnaissance aircraft that had been flying a mission over western Afghanistan late last week. The operators of the UAV lost control of the aircraft and had been working to determine its status."

Dec 2, 2011 - Europe prepares oil import embargoes against Iran.
Dec 1, 2011 - The US Senate unanimously passes sanctions against Iran.
Nov 30, 2011 - UK, Germany, Italy and France all recall their ambassadors from Iran.
Nov 29, 2011 - Protesters attack the UK embassy in Tehran, Eight UK embassy staff taken hostage.
Nov 28, 2011 - Explosion in an Iranian nuclear facility in Isfahan.

Multiple eyewitness accounts of the Israeli military moving large missiles into position outside of Jerusalem and in the West Bank

Late Nov - British Special forces have met up with members of the Free Syrian Army (FSA), the armed wing of the Syrian National Council. The apparent goal of this initial contact was to establish the rebel forces' strength and to pave the way for any future training operations.
Nov 24, 2011- Iran's intelligence ministry had arrested 12 CIA "spies." The alleged spies were trying to cripple Iran in the nuclear, military and security areas.
Nov 21, 2011- US names Iran as an area of "primary money laundering concern", a step designed to dissuade non-U.S. banks from dealing with it
Nov 12, 2011 - Explosion at an Malard Iranian military base outside Tehran that killed about 30 members of the Revolutionary Guard, including General Hassan Moghaddam, the head of the Iranian missile defense program. (Note - Missile defense, not offense.) It is believed that Israeli Intelligence is responsible. L.A. Times adds the U.S. as the culprit.
Nov 8, 2011- IAEA report - Based on documents found on a laptop by MEK and Israel in 2004. The documents stop in 2003.
Oct 18, 2011 - UK's decision to freeze $1.6bn of Iranian assets
Oct 11, 2011- Iranian plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador in Washington. (A used-car salesman attempted to recruit a Mexican drug cartel to carry out the hit. The man representing himself as a cartel operative turned out to be a paid informant of the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA).)
Aug 10, 2011- US attempts to blame Iran for 2 downed Navy Seal helicopters. (No evidence)
July 2010 - It is believed that the M Star Japanese oil tanker carrying oil from Saudi Arabia was damaged by Revolutionary Guards speedboat from the island of Abu Musa by firing a single missile in the northern outlet of Hormuz.
June 2011 - The former speaker of the US House of Representatives Newt Gingrich said that the US should "sabotage" Iran's oil and gas infrastructure as part of its efforts to bring down the government.
Summer, 2010 - Stuxnet virus
2009 - Green revolution.
2008 - Congress funds destabilization efforts against Iran. "a CIA plan that reportedly included a coordinated campaign of propaganda, disinformation and manipulation of Iran’s currency and international financial transactions, according to ABC News."
Early 2008 - Bush administration officials held a meeting recently in the Vice President’s office to discuss ways to provoke a war with Iran. The “meeting took place in the Vice-President’s office. ‘The subject was how to create a casus belli between Tehran and Washington,’”
Jan 6, 2008 - Iranian Revolutionary Guard boats harassed and provoked three U.S. Navy ships in the strategic Strait of Hormuz,” Pentagon officials said. According to one official, “Five small [Iranian] boats were acting in a very aggressive way… and causing our ships to take evasive maneuvers.”
March, 2007 - America is secretly funding terrorist groups in Iran in an attempt to pile pressure on the Islamic regime to give up its nuclear program.
March 23, 2007 - Iranian naval forces captured 15 British Royal Navy personnel for trespassing into the Iranian territorial waters off Iran-Iraq border coast. (The sailors were released April 4th on compassionate grounds after Iran broadcast their apology for trespassing Iranian territorial waters.)
July 31, 2006 - Christian Zionists lobby for attacks against Iran.
June 15, 2006 - Iran and Syria sign a mutual defense pact.
Wargame rehearsals by the United States and Israel against Iran for at least the last 4 years (2011, 2010, 2009, 2008)

Videos
General Iran reaction.

Note: This is a resource and will be updated as needed.

Newt and the Election - Character Matters

2012-01-19T10:30:00.000-08:00

While I do not subscribe to the virtuous candidate rhetoric as much as some of my counterparts, Newt is finding out the hard way why character makes a difference -

In her most provocative comments, the ex-Mrs. Gingrich said Newt sought an "open marriage" arrangement so he could have a mistress and a wife.

She said when Gingrich admitted to a six-year affair with a Congressional aide, he asked her if she would share him with the other woman, Callista, who is now married to Gingrich.

"And I just stared at him and he said, 'Callista doesn't care what I do,'" Marianne Gingrich told ABC News. "He wanted an open marriage and I refused."

Marianne described her "shock" at Gingrich's behavior, including how she says she learned he conducted his affair with Callista "in my bedroom in our apartment in Washington."

"He always called me at night," she recalled, "and always ended with 'I love you.' Well, she was listening."

The Real Effect
While I cannot speak to Mr. Gingrich's love for his wife at the time, the more critical component that we need to take note of is that he is a user. As others and I have been saying for decades, this is a man that has two sides, his public and his private. His outward projection of 'love' or 'patriotism' is subjugated primarily to his devotion to himself. This is not a warrior, nor a faithful husband. This is a man that creates a paradigm that others view him in and then carries on in his own manner as he sees fit. The key word we are looking for is conviction. Or perhaps more succinctly - fraud.

It is via this metric that we discover that his fidelity to his wife only bears on his job performance in as much as it demonstrates that when the stakes really matter, Newt will back....well, Newt. Of course his history tells us as much. From 2010 -

Fool me once, shame on you.

In 1994, Republicans surged into power with the Contract With America amid promises of shrinking the size of government, promoting lower taxes, greater entrepreneurial activity, tort reform and welfare reform. While one can quibble that this was achieved to a degree, the overall net effect during this time was the exact opposite. Government largess grew exponentially, myriads of wars were started, Federal departments were created and liberty was slashed to a nub. Towards the end of 2008, all that remained were entitled carcasses of what was in effect "dead" politicians.

Just like the ring of power, Republicans seized the power and then the power seized them. This is why we the Democrats were able to route the Republicans in 2008 amid "Hope and Change".

Put simply, this is exactly the reason why I support Rep. Paul. He is the only Republican candidate that wants to destroy the ring of power and the reason why he is being marginalized is because he will actually do it.

WSJ Economist: Ron Paul's 0% Income Tax = Massive Insourcing of Jobs into America

2012-01-18T10:30:00.000-08:00

The Real Effect
Exactly. For starters an income tax is a repugnant idea. It basically holds that you "owe" another entity, in this case the Federal Government, a bill because you had "income". Put another way, the Federal government is entitled to a percentage of each and every trade that is made to improve our social conditions. This is an outrageous idea on it's face and part of the reason why I staunchly oppose most flat taxes and the like. Those plans view the problem as this -

Well, the government "needs" 30% to stay afloat, so we have to "pay" for that somehow.

While true that the government has debt, it ignores the much larger issue in the room. Government is supposed to benefit the people, not vice-versa. And who can really argue that the people are benefiting from the government at this point? It is exactly this type of top-down approach that gets the initial question wrong, therefore any solution that follows may succeed in a sense, but is ultimately doomed to fail.

This is what we learned in the last 100 years of socialist experiments. When you allow the state to control the means of production through either outright or overt methods, the bloodshed and war that intrinsically follow literally consume the people's prosperity. It is to this end that the government is established, to prevent this from occurring not enable it.

The question that we must ask is not what can government afford, but what can the people afford? With millions of us unemployed, on food stamps and in some cases literally starving how can we as a nation justify not implementing this 0% tax?

Ultimately, we need to do what is right for the people, not the banks or the government.

Europe Is a Mess - Collapse Coming Soon

2012-01-16T10:30:00.000-08:00

Let's look at just a few stories out of the fascist front -

On Jan. 13, 2012, we lowered to 'AA+' the long-term sovereign credit ratings on two of the European Financial Stability Facility's (EFSF's) previously 'AAA' rated guarantor member states, France and Austria.

The EFSF's obligations are no longer fully supported either by guarantees from EFSF members rated 'AAA' by Standard & Poor's, or by 'AAA' rated securities. We consider that credit enhancements sufficient to offset what we view as the reduced creditworthiness of guarantors are currently not in place.

We are therefore lowering our long-term issuer credit rating on the EFSF to 'AA+' from 'AAA'. We are also affirming the 'A-1+' short-term rating on EFSF.

In short, the 'lifeboat' to save Europe also has holes in it. Guess that's what happens when you propose a global ponzi scheme to save a global ponzi scheme.

Next, we move to Greece -

Time for the dominos to fall where they may: head of sovereign ratings at S&P Kraemer spoke on Bloomberg TV, and said the following:
KRAEMER: GREECE, CREDITORS `RUNNING OUT OF TIME' IN DEBT TALKS -BBG
KRAEMER: EURO LEADERS HAVEN'T TACKLED CORE UNDERLYING PROBLEMS -BBG
KRAEMER SAYS EUROPE MUST DEAL WITH IMBALANCES, COMPETITIVENESS -BBG

Portugal can't feel left out now...

Portuguese 10Y bond spreads to bunds just broke 1250bps, +180bps on the day and at record wides. Given the subordination concerns as ESM is accelerated, it is perhaps no surprise that the ECB's SMP has seemingly decided that Portugal has crossed the Rubicon into Greece territory

The Real Effect
As noted in a post from Dec of 2010 -

This is going to gain steam now, Portugal and Germany are blowing out, China is finally starting to slow and Yahoo is laying off 10 - 20% of its employees.

The music has stopped, now where are the chairs? If I were you, I would get cash, on hand. Buy silver, buy gold, and items to protect yourself because we're going in for a crash landing.

Further, this was predicted back in 2008, before the US crisis hit it's nadir and was identified as an actual 'crisis' -

European Union -They will be hit by this economic downswing, but where the US will be ravaged by this downturn, the EU will "weather the storm" precisely because they are the EU. This will lead for calls to imitate them with the North American Union in order to survive. (Timeframe: 1 - 3 years)

The groundwork is being prepped for Europe's phoenix moment. But like the mythical bird of lore, before the new can come into being, first the old must burn.

Elections 2012 - The Candidates

2012-01-16T08:00:00.000-08:00

Updates: 1/19/2012 - Perry is rumored to drop out today. Gingrich was surging in the polls, but this interview with his ex-wife is going to destroy him in the south.

Front runners
Rep - Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, Rick Santorum
Dem - Barrack Obama, Hillary Clinton, ?

Potential Republican Candidates for President (Run/Win)

Ron Paul - Texas Representative (9/7)

Only candidate that saw the "economic crisis" coming.
Polls high in NH.Second place in Iowa.
Most likely candidate to defeat Obama.
Will be portrayed again as weak on national security.
Candidates are trying to be him

Herman Cain...impeachment...
Rick Perry...end the money printing..

Mitt Romney (10/5)

He will be in
Flip flopped on -

Abortion

Claims he's pro-life
Attended a Planned Parenthood fundraiser in 2004
He even instituted tax-funded abortion on demand two years after his orchestrated “pro-life” conversion.

Support for Islam, or not?

Rammed through State run health care in Massachusetts (Will be in dead in the water vs Obama) and still supports it. (Obamacare is based on Romneycare)
Believes the theory of anthropogenic global warming is real

Has an economist adviser - Greg Mankiw who in 2007 wrote an op-ed for the New York Times entitled “One Answer to Global Warming: A New Tax.”
He advocates carbon taxes through a “tax-swap plan” and declares that resultant “higher energy prices would encourage energy efficiency.”
“the first and only state to set CO 2 emissions limits on power plants.”

Wants to implement austerity

Supports Federal intervention into marriage.
Used to support gay marriage, flipped recently.(2)

Refuses to sign petition to oppose gay marriage

Mormon
Supports gun control

He describes his position on assault-weapon bans as the “same as [Sen. John] Kerry and [the late Sen. Ted] Kennedy.”

Supports the War on Drugs?
Supports war with Iran
His foreign policy team consisting largely of recycled Bush-era veterans, including: former CIA Director Michael Hayden, former Department of Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff, former Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Eric Edelman, former Pentagon comptroller Dov Zakheim, former State Department Policy Planning Chief and North Korea expert Mitchell Reiss.
Support -

Former Salt Lake City mayor Rocky Anderson, who ran an ad in which he said, “Take it from this liberal Democrat. If you want an amazing leader, vote for Mitt Romney.”

Quotes

1998 - “Hillary Clinton is very much right, it does take a village.”
“[T]hose who are here contrary to the law should seek to establish legal residence,” the document claims he said, “and if they do so, I’d be delighted to provide support.”

Rick Santorum (5/4)

He's in...
Comes in 2nd in Iowa, falls dramatically in New Hampshire
Flip flops

Abortion

No abortions even in cases of rape; one violence is enough. (Aug 2011)
Exception for rape & incest ok, even though they take a life. (Sep 2006)

2008 bailouts - Supported

2005: Fannie & Freddie should create housing affordability. (Jan 2012)
TARP was biggest government intrusion into private sector. (Oct 2011)
Tax credits to promote home ownership in distressed areas. (Apr 2003)

Marriage

Supports Federal intervention into marriage.
Marriage is a federal issue; we need one definition, not 50. (Jan 2012)
Marriage Protection Amendment is last resort, but needed. (Apr 2006)
No-Fault Freedom: doing whatever we want damages society. (Apr 2006)
Leave marriage definition to state legislatures & the people. (Jul 2004)

Does not support the Constitution

Dislikes the 2nd Amendment

Voted to mandate locks on handguns in 2005
In the 90s, he voted to support the Lautenberg Gun Ban

Dislikes the 4th Amendment

Supports the Patriot Act

Voted YES on reauthorizing the PATRIOT Act. (Mar 2006)

Voted YES on extending the PATRIOT Act's wiretap provision. (Dec 2005)
Pro torture

Voted NO on requiring CIA reports on detainees & interrogation methods. (Sep 2006)

Dislikes the 10th Amendment
First Executive Order: suspend ObamaCare. (Jul 2011)
Voted YES on recommending Constitutional ban on flag desecration. (Jun 2006)

Supports the War on Drugs

Voted YES on increasing penalties for drug offenses. (Nov 1999)
Voted YES on spending international development funds on drug control. (Jul 1996)

Is pro-life
Supports the Federal Reserve
Department of Homeland Security fixed an internal mess. (Sep 2011)
Supporter of Medicare Part D
Supporter of No Child Left Behind
Is pro-war

Terrorism is an asymmetric threat; we need worldwide bases. (Jun 2011)
Don't cut one penny out of defense spending. (Oct 2011)
Supported the invasion of Iraq
Want's to "confront" Iran

Giving money to Iran rebels is not enough. (Nov 2011)
No apologies for past American interventions in Iran. (Aug 2011)
Iran has been at war with us since 1979. (Aug 2011)

Voted YES on Strengthening of the trade embargo against Cuba. (Mar 1996)

Supported Sen. Arlen Specter in 2004
Supports the IMF, NAFTA

Voted YES on $17.9 billion to IMF. (Mar 1998)
Voted YES on implementing CAFTA for Central America free-trade. (Jul 2005)
Voted YES on establishing free trade between US & Singapore. (Jul 2003)
Voted YES on establishing free trade between the US and Chile. (Jul 2003)
Voted YES on extending free trade to Andean nations. (May 2002)
Voted YES on permanent normal trade relations with China. (Sep 2000)

His nephew supports Ron Paul
Cut all corporate tax rates to zero. (Sep 2011)
Pro amnesty

Welcome legal immigrants as part of made-in-America plan. (Nov 2011)

Economics

Pro National Sales Tax

84% of Americans pay more tax if we have national sales tax. (Oct 2011)

Likes to spend when he agrees with it

Voted YES on $3.1B for emergency oil assistance for hurricane-hit areas. (Oct 2005)
$90M to study effects of media violence on kids. (Apr 2006)
Fund reverse-commuting for distressed suburbs. (Apr 2006)
Voted YES on restoring $550M in funding for Amtrak for 2007. (Mar 2006)
Voted YES on targeting 100,000 hydrogen-powered vehicles by 2010. (Jun 2003)
Voted YES on more funding for forest roads and fish habitat. (Sep 1999)

Pro austerity

Means testing: reduce Social Security benefits for wealthy seniors. (Jan 2012)
1994: Proposed raising retirement age, despite unpopularity. (Sep 2011)

Newt Gingrich (7/2)

Going to be out soon...
Testing the waters
Fading fast...
Is a bigger moral hypocrite then most.
He's lost his campaign staff
Pretends he dislikes the Federal Reserve
Supports carbon taxes
Supports an ethanol mandate
Doesn't know what he thinks on Libya
Likes to spend lots of money
Has attended Bohemian Grove

Drop outs

Rick Perry - Texas Governor (10/8)

He's considering, he's almost there, he's in...is he out? Nope. But NOW he is...

He supports Gingrich, baaad choice.
He's positioning to take the Republican "savior" role.

Doesn't believe in law
Believes in an "Economic Recovery Package"
He does not honor his campaign promises

Violated his pledge not to run for President in 2012
Did not attend to the massive issues with the Mexican border

Bliderberg Attendee (2007 & 2010)(In doing so, he violated the Logan Act)
Supports the Trans-Texas Corridor (A key leg of the NAU superhighway)
Supported mandatory Gardasil vaccines for Texas school children. (Via executive order) (Flip-flop)
Helped almost double the size of Texas spending ($49 billion in 2000 to $90 billion presently) and debt for a debt to GDP ratio of 22.9%.
He's raised taxes and fees again and again
He supported Al Gore for president by running his Texas campaign in 1988 (2)
He's pro-lightbulb liberty
FLDS El Dorado raid (2008) – Another massive attack on parental rights and peaceful home schoolers; Religious Oppression. 438 children ripped away from parents and traumatized for months.
Supports No Child Left Behind Act and Dept. of Education
Supports Sobriety Check Points
Supports the Patriot Act
Vetoes Texas Eminent Domain Bill
Signs Hate Crimes bill
Endorsed Rudy Giuliani for President in 2007
He's a money making machine. (Question - Just who is giving him the money?)

John Huntsman - Governor of Utah (5/3)

He's in...
...and he's out.
Was a member of the Council on Foreign Relations
He gave money to Democrats
Climate change believer
Opposed the Tea Party
He supported Obamacare in Utah Will not sign pledges

Michelle Bachman (7/4)

She's in...she's out
She wins Iowa poll.
Doesn't understand the 4th amendment
A former tax collector.
Supports the Patriot Act
Supports Federal intervention into marriage.
Pro stimulus
Supports "blockading" Iran

Gary Johnson (9/6)

Former Governor of New Mexico
Libertarian leaning
Heavy on vetoes

Herman Cain (9/8)

He's in......and he's out.
He's pro-choice
Does not support the Second Amendment.
Past President of the Kansas City Federal Reserve

Favors no oversight or audits on the Fed and lies about not supporting an audit.

Supported the TARP program
A Security and Prosperity Partnership (SPP) steering group member (Information unclear)
Seems to support a pro-Israeli platform
Is about as politically bright as Perry.

Sarah Palin (8/3)

She's 'On fire' and she might be in. She's out. (Building "support" for a late entry?)
She has the "It" factor
Has supported many successful "Tea Party" candidates
Is getting foreign policy advice from Henry Kissinger
Supported the Libyan "No-Fly Zone"
Is firmly in support of Israel

Paul Ryan (7/5)

He's thinking about it..he's out
Fairly conservative
Not honest about the facts underpinning his economic recovery plan
Charges town hall attendees $15 to access their Congressman?
Is generally pro-war., as long as it's a Republican leading the way.

Voted for war with Iran.
Voted for war with Iraq.

Tim Pawlenty (9/3)

He's all in...he's out.
A moderate at best.
Refused to sign a pledge to enforce the Defense of Marriage Act by the National Organization for Marriage

Haley Barbour

He's out

Mitch Daniels

Mike Huckabee (9/5)

He's out

Bobby Jindall (7/3)
Rudy Giuliani (7/4)

Scoring high in polls
His claim to fame is that his city was attacked while he was Mayor.

General Patreaus (7/7)
Chris Christie (5/4)

He's thinking about it...still thinking about it...
Somewhat moderate
Pro-immigration

Arnold Schwarzenegger (5/5)

Fathered at least one out-of-wedlock child.
A wild card. He has made no secret about his desire for the presidency.

Jeb Bush (4/4)

He's thinking about it.
Fatigue on all things "Bush".

Rand Paul - US Senate (SC) (3/4)

Significantly unlikely.

John McCain (4/3)

He's thinking about it

Other important players

Glenn Beck

Supports carbon taxes, VAT taxes

Donald Trump

He's out

Potential Democrat Candidates for President (Run/Win)

Barack Obama (9/5)

His "family is ok with one term"
Israel is furious with him
Bilderberg Attendee (2008)
He has personally presented an inauthentic (Fraudulent?) long form birth certificate
Bin Laden story keeps shifting

Hillary Clinton

The Issues

The Debt (National, State)

The economy (Unemployment)
Entitlement programs
The college bubble

Foreign policy (4 concurrent wars - Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, Libya)

Syria, Yemen, Iran

Property Rights

The Real Effect
Week 12 - 8/12/2011 - Finally, some fireworks as we get the first Republican debate in Iowa. Not a whole lot to write home about but the results are somewhat encouraging. (Bachmann 4823, Paul 4671, Pawlenty 2293, Santorum 1657, Cain 1456, Romney 567, Gingrich 385, Huntsman 69, McCotter 35, (Perry got 718 write-in votes)) Yet Paul is treated as a media side-show by everyone under the sun.
In relevant news, Perry finally got into the race.

Week 9 - 7/22/2011 - The periphery is heating up as Obama is falling in the polls like a rock. The Republicans are hunting for a viable candidate even as they continue to give away the farm on the debt ceiling negotiations. 'Tanks in the streets' is the verbiage that is being used to bully the people into supporting even greater levels of debt. Look for more candidates to get involved as it becomes obvious that America is going down. Yet, the new candidates are just new window dressing on the same ideas that got us into this mess in the first place.

Week 8 - 7/15/2011 - Wow, a month goes by fast. Not a lot has changed over the past few months. Thankfully the candidates positions are being fleshed out and this is allowing us to see just where everyone stands.

Week 4 - 6/17/2011 - Ric Perry cashed in on the momentum of the previous week by giving what is being hailed as a 'Reaganesque' speech that all but solidified his entry into the field.

Week 3 - 6/10/2011 - Rick Perry showed up in a big way when Newt's crew ditched him to hypothetically join Perry's non-campaign. Coincidentally, the Bilderberg meeting is occurring at the same time.

Week 1 - 5/27/2011 - Up to now, we've seen quite a few dropouts in the fields with Donald Trump showing that he was nothing more then an establishment distraction, Schwarz being pushed aside because of his extra children, Daniels feeling the pinch of his state's Supreme court ruling effectively declaring war on his citizens and Huckabee falling out. Paul Ryan continues to obfuscate, but his off grasp/honesty on the Medicare issue going to remove him anyways. Herman Cain continues to draw in nominal Conservatives that aren't doing much research. At this point it's becoming obvious that the debt and property ethics are going to be THE campaign issues on the people's mind.

Note: This is a resource and will be updated periodically. Originally published 5/6/2011.

1/16/2012 - and now John Huntsman is out with South Carolina looming.
1/4/2012 - ...and the first round in Iowa goes to Mitt Romney with second place going to Santorum? Michelle Bachman drops out with Perry eying the exit as well.

1/3/2012 - And now Santorum is surging in an attempt to bleed evangelical votes from Ron Paul. It's the first Primary in Iowa and Paul is pulling ahead.
12/19/2011 - I removed all the irrelevant candidates from the running list. Gingrich has enjoyed his 15 minutes of adoration and now everybody remembers just why they hated him so much. Paul is surging and looks certain to win in Iowa, possibly New Hampshire.
11/10/11 - Between Perry's gaffes, Cain's women issues and Romney's liberalism it's a wonder the party still exists.
10/5/2011 - Palin is out, Cain also shoots himself in the face with the OWS crowd.
9/27/2011 - Rick Perry shoots himself in the face over immigration, Herman Cain wins the poll if Florida, Ron Paul continues to gain.
8/22/2011 - Paul Ryan is out.
8/14/2011 - Tim Pawlenty is out, Rick Perry is in, Michelle Bachmanm wins Iowa straw poll.
7/22/2011 - Jeb Bush throws his name into consideration, added Chris Christie
6/21/2011 - Added John McCain, added Jon Huntsman, added Rick Perry announcement, added Gingrich data.
6/14/2011 - Added Michelle Bachman announcement, Obama 1 term.
6/9/2011 - Added Newt Gingrich campaign staff walkout and rating, Rick Perry potential, Hillary Clinton World Bank idea.
6/8/2011 - Added Herman Cain issue (No Audit the Fed)
5/27 - Added Michelle Bachman as Rep. candidate. Added Mitt Romney running. Ron Paul poll. Rick Perry, Rudy Giuliani potential run. Haley Barbour drop out. Added running analysis at the bottom. Added front runners section.

Ron Paul Surges Past Santorum, Youth of America Pave the Way

2012-01-13T11:00:00.000-08:00

The establishment has to be getting worried -

Ron Paul has surged past Rick Santorum into the top tier in South Carolina, gaining a staggering 11 per cent in the last week alone to climb to third with a total of 20 per cent, with Mitt Romney’s first place position at 29 per cent looking increasingly vulnerable.

After being heralded as a favorite in South Carolina, Santorum has sunk to just 7 per cent. Having at one stage been as low at 8 per cent, Paul clearly has the greatest momentum going into next Saturday’s primary.

The Real Effect
The "conservative" talk show circuit has been a set of logic for decades that basically correctly concludes that the more liberty oriented a candidate is, the more likely they are to win. In general this is true. Candidates know this and have practiced it in politicking for decades as well. It has led to the rise of a general strategy in which one ~~lies~~ campaigns to the base in order to secure votes and then subsequently finds his governing 'style' by moving to the middle.

Consider if you will how this would play out at your oil change place. The mechanic tells you that for $20 you can get an oil change and quick inspection. While your vehicle is being drained of its lifeblood, the mechanic looks at the books and gets pragmatic. 'I'm sorry,' he tells you 'but I also represent my boss' interests and he wants $100 for this oil change. In the name of partisanship, I am charging you $50. Normally, we charge $60, but I'll give you a deal at $50 so you're getting 20% off! Just think of your savings!'

Most people would have one word for this. FRAUD.

This is the political reality that these candidates find themselves in. The bait-and-switch tactic has worked admirably for so long why change it? Except there is a larger generational war brewing here. In fact in terms of sheer momentum, it's not a war, it's a potential massacre.

Nearly half of all voters under 30 went for Paul in the first two states to vote, helping to propel him to a second-place finish in the New Hampshire primary and third place in Iowa’s leadoff caucuses.

Chew on that for a few minutes. That's not a blip, that's a revolution that's just getting started. These youth realize that the Boomer generation has taken Carpe Diem to ridiculous new heights and have not prepared to take care of themselves. They rightly surmise and fear that the this historical voting populace will turn to the state gun to legally screw their generation over.

To this extent, the Boomers are perplexed. The world is collapsing. Why are these randy youths making matters worse voting for uncle nutsy? Iran will get the bomb, the banks will collapse, Medicare will collapse! They must be stopped at all costs!

It is in this last thought that the problem becomes all too clear. Call it what you will, the true problem here is not Democrat, or Iran, or patriotism, terrorists, the Depression or anything else.

The true problem lie in personal responsibility.

In most things, the Boomers want someone else to fix the problem. 'Talk to the police. Get insurance. Attend church and school board meetings. Vote for Medicare.' In all things, the Boomers believe in the efficacy of the System. We must move as a whole, not as individuals within a whole. Taken in this light, it becomes stunningly clear why the problem will never be resolved. They will continue to empower those who promise to 'make it better' and pay any cost to do it including sacrificing their own children.

It is because of this that the children rightly wish to dismantle the parts of the system that are illegal and immoral. Many of them have a deep and biding respect for the law, they just choke on the concept of legalizing slavery again! Many of them simply want to be left alone to fix their own problems. This is the definition of responsibility.

The system must be pruned dramatically. Not abolished. To the extent that it recognizes personal responsibility and keeps the consequences for actions nearest the primary actors will be the extent that our country will recover. The edifices of archaic 'law' that seeks to enslave one party to cover another parties risk must be done away with completely if we are to survive.

Iran Propaganda debunked in less than 6 minutes

2012-01-11T04:00:00.000-08:00

Iran - Current Situational Analysis - Poisoning the Asian Well

2012-01-10T10:30:00.000-08:00

I recently posted an update to the Iranian military action page (along with reordering it so that recent actions appear first). There is a world of maneuvering going on over the last few days -

Jan 10, 2012 - The IAEA- Iranian officials earlier said the Fordo plant, deep inside the mountains near the central Iranian city of Qom, was build to produce 20-percent uranium needed for a research reactor in Tehran, which produces medical isotopes to treat cancer patients.
Jan 9, 2012 - Iran has begun uranium enrichment at a new underground site built to withstand possible airstrikes
Jan 9, 2012 - Iran has sentenced alleged CIA spy, 28 year old Amir Hekmati, to death.
Jan 9, 2012 - The Russian carrier Admiral Kuznetsov anchored at Syria’s Tartus port along with the destroyer Admiral Chabanenko and frigate Yaroslav Mudry.

Dawoud Rajha was received on the deck by a guard of honor of marines under a flyover of Russian Su-33 and Su-25 fighter-bombers

Jan 9, 2012 - France consigned an air defense destroyer Forbin to the waters off Tartus”
Jan 8, 2012 - Defense Secretary Leon Panetta says is not yet building a bomb and called for continued diplomatic and economic pressure to persuade Tehran not to take that step.
Jan 8, 2012 - RQ-4 Global Hawk UAV, took off from the USS Stennis aircraft carrier for for a Broad Aerial Maritime Surveillance Mission (BAMS) over the coasts of Iran.
Jan 8, 2012 - Ali Ashraf Nouri, a senior commander in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, told Khorasan daily on Sunday that the Iranian government has decided to close the strategic Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Persian Gulf if the country’s oil exports are blocked.
Jan 8, 2012 - Philip Hammond, the UK's Defence Secretary, warned the regime in Tehran that Britain will not tolerate the ‘very significant consequences’ if it fulfils a threat to block the Strait of Hormuz.

The HMS Daring is a Type 45 destroyer that has the world’s most sophisticated naval radar is sent to the Gulf.
French Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier is dispatched to the area as well.

Jan 7, 2012 - Iran launches security exercises on Afghanistan border. Mohammad Pakpour, commander of the Revolutionary Guards' ground forces, said the "Martyrs of Unity" exercises near Khvat, 60 km (40 miles) from Afghanistan, were "aimed at boosting security along the Iranian borders," Fars reported.

The Real Effect
So what on earth is going on? Quite frankly, a large chess match. The US and Israel's goal, along with NATO, is to invade Iran. Russia and China, Syria and Iran oppose this. Let us take a quick look at the events leading up to this from Iran's perspective:

The US has invaded almost all nations surrounding Iran as part of a larger Geo-political strategy. (In existence before and NOT in response to 9/11 and the War on Terror) This is part of a much larger religious strategy designed to demonize Christianity AND Islam.
Iran is currently surrounded by US forces.
The US imposes sanctions on Iran.
It is actively looking for justification for the war. (In part by using propaganda to paint Iran as aggressors)
The US is positioning against Syria one of Iran's allies. (Part of the larger move) Israel is also joining the fray.

And Jordan

This same strategy was used recently, against Iraq and Libya.
The US has been trying to wear down your forces recently.
The French, with the Globalist Sarkozy, have positioned an aircraft carrier near your nation. (They too are part of the broader War on Terror)

It doesn't take a genius to figure out what the US wants to do to Iran. As a matter of fact, they keep screaming it from the pulpits. So where do you stand as a nation?

The revived Russian Federation says they have your back. (2) (As part of the larger strategy)
Countries are stating they will buy more oil in an attempt to bolster Iran

China might have your back. (I would think that would depend on how much they think the US will retaliate.)
Do you take a shot at the UK's 'advanced' but eminently pegable and juicy target HMS Daring?

Will NATO take the shot? And then claim you did it?

You move your cutting edge, highly expensive facilities to where the 'enemy' can't get them.
Eventually you push ahead with nuclear warheads because if you can get them, perhaps you'll be left alone or at a minimum, you'll take the other side with you.

Overall, I believe all of this is designed to inflame two parties - The Muslims in the Mideast and the Asian nations. If the US can get Iran, the focus on the war on terror shifts from the Muslims of the Mideast to the Muslims from such countries as Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan which just so happen to share a border wiiiiiith...........

China and Russia.

Round 2 - New Hampshire

2012-01-09T16:00:00.001-08:00

The media tries to correlate cook = Paul and turn his "I went" image into a joke -

Describing the news media as mob-like, Ron Paul's campaign says the candidate was shaken up by what happened this morning.

His wife was shoved by a reporter, and his stop at a diner was cut short when he was mobbed by reporters before making a clean getaway despite pleas to stay.

The Real Effect
With the Huntsman "Hate" fraud being exposed, Ron Paul is surging. Look for fraud galore as the system tries to bury Paul here. Here's a quick tool for tonight, the backstop of vote rigging is exposed -

1. Removed safeguards for its same-day registration system.
2. Ignores the law on ballot-stuffing safeguards
3. Breaks the chain of custody
4. Conceals vote-counting from the public, in violation of Article 32 of its own Constitution
5. Removed candidate recount rights (2009)
6. Made it illegal for public citizens or members of the press to examine the ballots after the election is over (2003)

2012 Terrorist Identification Chart

2012-01-09T16:00:00.000-08:00

Constitutional Crisis Brewing?

2012-01-05T10:30:00.000-08:00

Be careful what you wish for, you just might get it -.

But when Congress refuses to act, and as a result, hurts our economy and puts our people at risk, then I have an obligation as President to do what I can without them. (Applause.) I’ve got an obligation to act on behalf of the American people. And I’m not going to stand by while a minority in the Senate puts party ideology ahead of the people that we were elected to serve. (Applause.) Not with so much at stake, not at this make-or-break moment for middle-class Americans. We’re not going to let that happen. (Applause.)

The Real Effect
Well that didn't take long -

In response a Constitutional Crisis emerges

I will concede that I thought that the origin of this particular crisis would be economic in nature and not an overt power grab. Overall the result will be the same, but the rhetoric leads me to believe that time is not on our side.

Look for the Republicans to object to this grab but to do nothing about it except bluster. After all, if challenging the guy's eligibility to be president, why would they care about what he does with the power when he gets it? Why?

Because they want the power too.

Iowa Post Caucus Analysis

2012-01-04T10:30:00.000-08:00

Well, the opening salvo for 2012 has been fired and what a doozy it has been.

Observations so far:

All things considered, Ron Paul did amazing - When you factor in his complete lack of media coverage and backstabbing by the GOP, his results are all that much more encouraging.
Ron Paul won the most delegates. (Watch the Repubs change the rules)

From BI - Iowa's Republican caucuses are non-binding — they are technically just a straw poll, so once selected, delegates are free to vote for whichever presidential candidate they choose.

The "Iowa doesn't count" speech has disappeared. Convenient.
Paul is polling 2nd in NH.
Santorum doesn't have the support structure or platform to make it much further. He is the flavor of the week.
Democrats support Ron Paul because they believe in him, not because they are messing in the elections.
There might be some statistical shifting (2, 3, 4) going on. Reports are that the entry and exit polls had Ron Paul at 30%. (Consistent with Drudge) If true, I don't believe it's enormous. Perhaps 2-3% was shifted from Paul to Santorum or Romney to create a "tie" there and make the story about those two and NOT about Paul's immense showing. Of course that "outside firm" would be the one fixing the results.

Ron Paul Rockets Into the Lead In Iowa and History

2012-01-03T12:00:00.000-08:00

Not that the Powers That Be will let him keep it but the Drudge Report has Rep Ron Paul up 5% over Romney in online voting with 200,000 votes cast. In Iowa, the lead is even more stunning at 10%!

Update 3: Shenanigans.

The final Iowa vote count normally takes place at state party headquarters in Des Moines, but following dubious “security concerns” about Occupy protesters disrupting the tabulation process, the Republican Party of Iowa announced that it would be moving the final vote count to a secret undisclosed location.

The move occurred despite Occupy protest leaders confirming there were no plans to disrupt the caucuses themselves.

Update 2: "Unamed sources" and a variation on the race card again - Niiiice.

As Iowa voters head to their caucuses tonight, some in the media are asking if Iowa is "too white, too evangelical, too rural" to accurately represent the political views of the country as a whole.

Update: Who said the GOP were democratic? Rush floats the idea from Palin to force the nomination.

...and Sarah Palin said, it's time that we coalesce behind one conservative, have us all agree -- candidates and voters agree -- on one conservative to go up against Romney, after New Hampshire winning employing into South Carolina and be done with this.

Against All Odds...

2012-01-03T10:30:00.000-08:00

The man deemed 'unelectable' by the 'experts' among us -

With the New Hampshire primary just one week away, two new polls have found Ron Paul is in a strong second place behind runaway leader Mitt Romney.

Romney is practically a dead cert to take the primary, and has been for some time. Consequently Paul’s campaign and his supporters will undoubtedly be encouraged by such a strong showing with just seven days before voting begins.

The Real Effect
Let us remember in this new year who stood against Ron Paul.

The GOP - Influential members of the Republican establishment within the state are offering sweetheart deals to prominent voting blocks in key swing districts in order to “sway” the result and ensure Ron Paul doesn’t win.
John Boehner
Rick Santorum - "Ron Paul is disgusting,"
Newt Gingrich
Michelle Bachman
Iowa Governor Terry Branstad - Denounced his own state's performance if Paul were to win.
Donald Trump
Politico Strategist Roger Simon - “If Ron Paul wins Iowa, we just take it out,”
Rush Limbaugh - “right now anybody other than Ron Paul could beat Obama if the election were tomorrow — easily.” "That audience goes nuts," Limbaugh said the next day. "I think, 'Oh, my gosh, what am I watching here?' "
Glenn Beck
Mark Levin - “I will do everything within my power, as limited as it is, to fight them every damn step of the way and if Ron Paul decides that he is going to go third party, which is detrimental to this nation and pulls a million votes, which is relatively insignificant in the big scheme of things, I will do everything within my power to defat his son in Kentucky,”
Michael Savage - On December 29, Savage said on his popular radio show that Ron Paul is a racist “lunatic” who supports terrorist groups and hates Israel.
Anne Coulter
Bill O’Reilly
Family Research Council President Tony Perkins

With all of the maneuvering behind the scenes, don't look to this year as beginning of ethics in politics.

Note - This is a resource and will be updated as necessary.

2012 Predictions

2012-01-01T23:00:00.000-08:00

Welcome to the 2012 Real Effect predictions. What will 2012 hold in store for the world and the U.S. in particular? To answer this question is a daunting task and one that we strive to answer. For the last 6 months, concepts have been analyzed, positions questioned and rocks overturned to bring you the latest and greatest. Predictions are highlighted in bold. So, with that we're off to the predictions!

New for 2012!
Yearly Theme: Are we responsible for our own actions?
This question becomes the fundamental litmus test for most every action and decision in the future.

War - 2012
The idea of a World War moves into the mainstream by becoming a probability instead of a possibility. People begin to realize that the only way presented to get out of this will be to fight. Let us pray that they realize who the correct people to fight are.

War Starts With Civil War and a Resurgence of Nationalism
Civil war leads the way as regional conflicts devolve into national wars.

Nationalism takes center stage again as there is a temporary shift away from the "Union / Globalism" mentality in order to demonize and bury Nationalism once and for all. This can be observed in patriotic displays of loyalty to one's home country as the globalists demand fealty to their flag in an attempt to demonize it.

The draft discussion becomes prevalent again. "Not enough boots to go around" combined with talks of "National Pride" and "Supporting one's country"

Outright War
Start of the Asiatic war (Late Q3 - Q4) - With the US being over committed, it can't back up its positions in other countries, the East sees this and starts moving. Fires break out faster then they can be put out.

Theaters of war

Asia East - The riots and revolutions that the citizens have been participating in need an outlet. The rulers will direct this to local conflicts. Police crackdowns will be brutal, efficient and deadly.

Singapore - Led by an outright collapse in the market there.
China - Peace is easy to keep when you can throw money at it.
North/South Korea - Outright skirmishes, possibly full war. The new ruler of North Korea becomes convinced that he needs to demonstrate his and the country's resolve and the time is ripe.

Western Asia - especially deteriorate

Pakistan - Civil war OR expulsion of US troops starts in earnest. (Q2 - Q3)
Afghanistan - As the US moves into other regions, the MEK begins targeting remaining US troops.

Mideast

Syria - It appears that the road to Iran lies through Syria. The US will try to draw in Hezbollah through "regime change". (Q1)
Iran - Time will tell on this one. Iran is a tough nut to crack as opinion is running contrary to Western interests here. IF the US gets Syria, Iran is next. There has been a lot of posturing in 2011, but no one has been able to capitalize. Look for the moral justification route being presented via Iranian "guerrilla forces" "destabilizing Syria and attacking US or NATO "peacekeepers".
Iraq - Destabilizes into sectarian violence with the north being especially unruly.

Africa

Uganda

North America

Terror attacks - Like the 888 event, London's 2012 Olympics

Mexico - The War On Drugs steps up on the borders in Texas, Arizona, New Mexico and California

This authorizes a FEMA reaction to stem the violence. We might get to see U.N. refugee action (This is already starting to an extent)

South America

Venezuela

Economics
The major economic focus shifts dramatically from Europe to Asia. The economic downturn moves to Asia, setting the stage for war with these countries later. Stagflation takes hold most everywhere

Asia

China/Taiwan/US - Chinese economy fails (Even now, the government is desperately trying to cover it up)

Russia, China
Europe

The European Union implodes completely.

Global TARP (EFSF) fails as firewall after firewall is breached
Ratings Agencies continue to downgrade countries and municipalities, not based on any metrics or logical sense, but rather out of a need to recognize the already obvious collapse that is in motion.
It may cease to exist nominally as the EU, but it's Phoenix Transformation still awaits.

North America

Canada staggers

Their housing market collapses by 10 - 20%. (Already starting)

The United States

Asset prices file in giant fits (20 - 40%) as positions are sold to protect themselves

Commodities

Oil - Oil has solidified above $100. $130 - $150 is the next target with a Iran led upside of $200 - $250.
Gold - Gold and silver have temporarily bottomed. Gold takes out $1700 easily and quickly closes in on $1800. After it breaches $1900, there is a sell off as the wild market fluctuations come into play. (Q1 + Q2-) Target range is $2000 - $2300.
Silver - Silver takes off like a lion again but also suffers just as badly. Initial stop is at $48 as it takes out the previous high. At this point speculators pile on and take it to $75. After this it gets destroyed back to the low $50 range.
Copper - Decouples from industry and becomes a poor man's silver investment. (10 - 20% gains)
Cotton

US Dollar officially goes inflationary. Printing comes in one form or another
Posts first official negative GDP. (In response, the market tanks)

In response a Constitutional Crisis emerges (In truth it has existed for a long time)

More "desperate" Keynesian solutions are floated as a dramatic attempt to "shock" the economy back to life. If enacted, it will ultimately fail.
Citizens favor giving less people more power to "fix" it (Note - This is one of the goals these bloodsuckers want)
Social programs are demanded in an attempt to 'restore America' but the economic argument now trumps 'societal values'. This leads to screeching about the inherit "injustice" present in the system as the freebies come to an end in austerity.
Things break down. As resources continue to dive, local alliances are formed to compete for these resources.

Corporations now rule

Repatriate the money - Corporations attempt to hide behind the Congress and demand a return of 'offshore funds'.

At least one state (Illinois?) seriously contemplates bankruptcy (In the end it ends up being bailed out by the Fed)
Food stamp use soars
The U.S. College bubble begins to pop as longstanding institutions begin to slash their budgets to remain solvent. Some even discuss closing outright. (Start of the "education crisis".) This will be a long recovery as the perception that "education" = "money and success" will be difficult to break.

Student loans start to slow (Rate) Teachers will lead the calls for more funding to be thrown at colleges in an attempt to "save education".

Existing home sales (SAAR) plummet by at least 10% with 15-20% being the more likely range. (4.5 million units to a bottom of 3.3 million units) Certain areas that were big on expansion before the crash, begin to resemble (Chinese) ghost towns. Eventually, gangs move into these areas abandoned by the local populace.
Unemployment

Unemployment Weekly Claims rise again (450,000 to 525,000) range. (2Q)
Unemployment Rate - Note: In 2011 I intentionally predicted a rise in the rate along with all of my other stunning positions for one reason. This is a non-lose scenario. If I predicted it would stay the same, it would obviously be correct. However, seeing my stunning clairvoyance on every other issue, why would I be so wrong on this one? Simple, because the government is fudging the numbers. By inaccurately predicting a rise, when one did not occur, it stands in sharp contrast to all the other prediction. One is left pondering - Just why is this number staying the same?

Culture
The mantra "The future is our hope" begins to become center to the recovery. What is lost on everyone is that in order for this concept to work, you have to sacrifice now. You can't borrow from tomorrow at an inflated rate (interest) and expect tomorrow to be better when the underlying fundamentals have NOT changed.

Men want to marry less due to the parasitical nature of women. This results in a "marriage/woman crisis" down the road. Churches begin to brow beat men into "growing up" and "accepting responsibility". (Already happening) This leads to a further schism in the churches as many churches become void of patriarchal leadership and shift aggressively to matriarchal influence. (This does not mean that men will not lead, but rather the male leadership will be massively influenced to the "injustices" being carried out on women. They will then accordingly enforce the desires of the female population.)

Feminism takes one in the eye as mothers decide it's not economically worth it to work, but would rather stay home and raise their children.

Metrosexual males start losing market value as they begin to be perceived as weak in the eyes of women everywhere as society stops valuing "fashion".

Crime nationally rises dramatically. + 20 - 30 %(Theft skyrockets, homicides increase and assault is up. Suicides increase.)

Police become a gang (Us vs. Them mentality intensifies) Small - medium riots emerge as the police overplay their authority. (Nationalize?) The cost of policing goes up substantially due to hazard pay, deaths and low enrollment. (Already starting to happen.) This leads to turf wars - (Black vs black, black vs Mexican, cop vs gang, cop vs Fed)

Customers begin to get violent. The mantra has been get more for less these last 30 years, now individuals who have heard this their whole loves will run into the laws of supply and demand. (McDonald's raises their price of the $1 menu)

Note: I reserve the right to edit these predictions until January 7, 2011.

2011 Predictions - Second Half Review

2011-12-31T22:00:00.000-08:00

As 2011 draws to a close and 2012 comes into view, we here at The Real Effect take stock of the predictions that have transpired over the last year.

To be sure, this was a stunner of a year for us. Not only were the predictions even more specific, there were tons more of them. For instance, PIIGS had dominated the news in 2010, but the newly created EFSF wasn't even on anyone's radar, let alone the thought of most of Europe detonating.

Of course we wasted little time in pimping ourselves out, noting the massive oil gains, silver gains, and a comprehensive look at all of them at the close of the first half.

Time for review - (This is going to be a work in progress due to the enormity of the research required.)
I redacted much of the filler material and left most of the "meat" in the post. August responses are in red.

Total: (31/42 - 74%)

Economy

Europe detonates, especially in the east - (Occurring now. +1)

Eastern Europe sinks to crisis level with reports of food shortages, rioting and widespread Depression. (+1)

Hungary (10 Yr 8.02%) may be the first to go.
Belarus is the first to go.
Slovenia is down too.
Romania is swirling
Slovakia blows
Latvia has bank runs

Western Europe contracts massively, putting extraordinary pressure on the Euro. (+1) But the call out of Belgium isn't about revoking the Euro, rather about the preservation of the European Union and the need to 'pull together'. I would expect that we could begin to see propaganda calling for a United Europe in the face of "x" (economic crisis, terror, war). Ultimately in the endgame, foreign creditors feel the massive pinch as they try to protect their investments, but the lack of a favorable response by the people will lead to war with the far east, but not yet.

Bonds play an absolutely critical role with the European Financial Stability Facility taking center stage. (If that was any more accurate, I would be lethal. +1) The days of "free money" are coming to an end.

Germany (10 Yr 2.958%)- This will probably lead to massive protests by the Germans over forced foreign austerity.
Greece (Bonds - 12.01%) (5 year - 100%, 3 Year - 28.6%, 2 year 92.98%, 1 year 150%) Greek banks failing, bank runs.
Ireland (10 Yr 9.058%) ( 2 year - 23.3%, Stealing pensions?)
Portugal (10 Yr 6.682%) (2 year 19.112%, 5 year 16.214%, stealing pensions)
Italy (10 Yr 4.8%) (2 year 6.38%, 5 year 7.827%, Credit status is on a downgrade review. 10 Year 6.77%)
Spain (10 Yr 5.453%) (2 year 3.872%, 5 year 6.156%)
France (10 Yr 3.32%) (French banks failing and more)
Belgium (Dexia fails)

Greek bank run....

United States

No recovery. The public is aware, but the media begins to be aware that all of the so-called recovery talk was nothing more than statistical nonsense.(No recovery and LOTS of crisis. +1 )
Consumer spending hits a wall and continues to decline moderately.(Reports are all falling. +1)
The country faces the worst Christmas in at least 25 years. (I haven't found the numbers on this yet. +0/1)

As this plays out throughout the first quarter, this kills off many struggling chains or at a bare minimum, (barring "bailouts") sets the stage for later Corporate Death. (Even Wal-Mart is getting hit among other stores closing.)

Massive Unemployment U-3 goes to 11%, U-6 to 18.5% (Yes, I know I'm asking for it) (The trend is finally moving back up to 9.2%, not 11% yet, but when the government bond bubble pops, it will get there in a hurry. +0/1)
The Employment rate continues to plunge (Yup, less people in the workforce. +1)

Millions more people fall off the unemployment rosters.(Worst since 1984)

Actual Inflation is rampant and MASSIVE (+10-20%) (OFFICIAL inflation approached 4% repeatedly. +1)

Commodities - MASSIVE increases in cost. (+1)

Oil becomes a political issue again (Due to being dollar driven) It will easily top $100 a barrel and probably aim for $150 again. (Oil hit $114.18 in May, hugged $100 for a few months, briefly collapsed to the support level $75 (Euro crisis) and is rapidly approaching $100 again. +1)
Gold - $1800 - $2000, Silver - $40 - 60 (Gold hit $1900 - Hold at $1700, silver $48 - Hold at $32. Right smack dab in the middle of both! +1)

Expect a massive rally in the first quarter of 2011, cooling off for the summer and then another strong rally at the back half of the year.(The first two happened, the rally appears to be being circumvented somehow. Detonating MF Global?)
Silver becomes especially difficult to physically source as the Comex cracks and demand goes up. (Perhaps hitting $40 in Q1, then cooling down until winter) It's been speculated that the MF Global default was to avert a Comex default.

Cotton - Clothing becomes expensive. This will eat away at many "cheap" clothing alternatives like Wal-Mart and Target. (Nymex saw a 30 - 40% jump in the 1st half of the year, to only fall hard on the second half. +.5/1)
Food becomes more expensive, shortages continue. (+1)

Local governments collapse

Municipalities disband and declare bankruptcy to avoid liabilities. (The bond market is collapsing, Chicago and suburbs are close. Some municipalities have declared bankruptcy including Harrisburg, PA. Others are close behind. +1)

State governments stagger

Deficits swell as many budgets were predicated upon the "summer of recovery" which turns out to be less of a recovery and more of a flat-line. (We are learning now that many budgets were in fact based on growth scenarios in the range of 5-8% in some cases. Absurd. +1)

Federal government surges nominally. While appearing to die, the federal government starts consuming everything in a dire attempt to stay solvent. (Sink or swim mentality)

Pensions are gradually shifted to state/Federal funds. (Congress defaults, or illegally default , Portugal is taking pensions +1)
Bond rates collapse further (Having a hand in this is Russia dumping US Treasuries +1)
FDIC is still insolvent and its line of credit at the Treasury Dept. legally runs out (+0/1)
Food stamp rates will continue to soar. (A new record of 45.8 million people and in increase in the rate of new applicants. +1)

Foreclosure-gate rocks the world (It is entering the next phase, lawsuits. +1)

Housing prices decline nominally by at least 5% (As Vox Day points out this is the amount of the 2009 tax credit) more likely 10% and perhaps it gets as bad as 20%. (It's safe to say we got 5%, but there appears to be a dead cat bounce going on at the moment and with homes sales being revised down massively by the NAR, the contraction is coming. +1) (On a side note, "since the fourth quarter of 2007, C&D loans are down $374.3 billion or 59.5%.")
H.R. 3808 is resurrected by the Republicans and signed into law. (This will be seen as bipartisanship)(+0/1)
Individuals and companies attempt to protect their capitol by investing in anything that is inflation proof. (Silver and Gold are starting another bull run that will be eclipsed when QE3 is announced.)

Minor to moderate bank runs (This is true in Greece and most of the Eastern European countries, no overt signs here yet. +0.5/1)

Stocks sell off nominally, finally. (When priced to inflation, which is absolutely necessary, the markets are not only down nominally for the year, but tanking to the tune of 5%. While not a massive plunge, the S&P ended up down for the year. +1)

Many of these institutions are holding a certain "value" on their books with regards to housing prices. If these values start plummeting, the banks will either be forced to seek another bailout or get crushed.
HFT (High Frequency Trading) becomes a mainstream term due to increasing exposure to the concept by the mainstream media. (Adobe) (While increasing in discussion, it has hardly breached the mass consciousness. +0/1)

War
With much of the fallout from "The Currency War" devastating the global economies, the action leaves the banks and hits the courts eventually ending on the battlefield. (More towards 2012) (Starting already with 5 US wars. +1)

Worldwide, America is blamed for the global economic fallout. (CDS, MBS securities) (Russia and China continue to point fingers. +1)

This stokes anti-American/liberty resentment which will find a place to mature later.

A world war by the end of 2012 (See the Religious War Series for details) (+0/N/A)
North Korea/South Korea trade volleys, but do NOT go to war. (The North is flexing its nuclear muscles multiple times, the South is shooting at what it thinks are North Korean passenger planes. +1)

Politics

The neoconservative version of the Tea Party takes its seats and promptly sells/blows out. (+1)

To be sure there will be plenty of grandstanding about "austerity", but sacred cows like defense spending, corporate welfare and education will be supported by the NeoTeas. (We saw this recently with the support for the debt ceiling increase. +1)
Critical legislation and opportunities (Like an End the Fed bill) are torpedoed by the appropriate sides.(+0/1)
I will go so far as to say that a major 'patriot' will betray the movement. (Here you go, Mitt Romney is our man. Haley endorses Mitt, Taxed Enough Already?, Romney. +1)

January - A lot of rhetoric, but not a lot of results. Talks by Republicans will resume of obstructionism and "dirty politics" by Obama. (+1)
Presidential Race heats up - May?

The third party "change" meme becomes more palatable, but not yet as frustrations lead to a party that will eventually become the Global Party
The cry will go out that 'In this hour, we cannot afford to be divided.' (+0/1)

Religion
After a massive downturn over the last 5 years, the remnants of much of the "religious right" get fed up with the left's "societal engineering". This leads to the following -

Nationalistic denominationalism - The Christians return to the forefront with a vengeance as the Glenn Beck rally/Palin crowd embrace "Americana" nationalism and go after the infidels. (Look at that, there's Beck, whipping up the Christians and promoting war. Looks like Rick Perry is getting in on the act as well. +1)

The "founder's intent"/"What this country was founded on" ends up fueling a nationalistic religious fervor that seeks to incarcerate and make war anyone who doesn't see their light. (+0/1 Perhaps a bit early on that one.)

But the rub lies in the fact that the left and the right are destined to destroy one another and lead to a new left/right party. (+0/1 - I don't know that we'll get this before 2012.)

Culture

Worldly obsession with 'otherworldly' entities picks up steam but does not reach critical mass. Such items will include:

Aliens/Project Bluebeam (+0/1)
Angel/Demon gates (+0/1)
Of particular note is the relative juggernauts that the Denver Broncos and Green Bay Packers have become this season. Both teams are helmed by devout Christians.

In reaction to rampant criminality, virtues become fashionable/marketable again.
Crime increases - The desperate lower class sees the upper class as the reason for their suffering. Except the middle class will be their target, not the bankers. (Witness the riots in Wisconsin. #OWS in the second half.)

Healthcare
As Obamacare takes hold, in order to make the "system" solvent, the Government moves to do the following:

The licensing and eventual banning of vitamins and nutritional supplements. (Competition is a sin) (New FDA guidelines get us partway there. Banning of more supplements. +1/1)
Healthcare shortages are realized (Medicare is eyed up) as workers retire early en-masse in order to avoid being part of the system. Doctors especially become more scarce as new recruits refuse to enter the field. (And there is the evidence that doctors are leaving. +1/1)

A black market for health care becomes viable. (+0/1)

Note: This post will be updated as information becomes available.

An Indirect Metric of Paul's Popularity

2011-12-30T10:30:00.000-08:00

Notice how Kelly Clarkson, after praising candidate Ron Paul was rewarded in the market. From Amazon -

The Real Effect
This is a very easy thing to understand. Ron Paul is a legitimate man that stands in stark contrast to most of the past and all of the current crop of presidential candidates. He is genuine, he is honest and most critically, he's consistent.

Kelly Clarkson expressed genuine support for a genuine candidate. This in turn caused people to support her of their own accord! Not in some crazed PR manipulated set piece where you promise the world to people if they just go buy her album. This is genuine market growth in action and the type of organic response that is sorely needed if this country is going to rebuild itself. Do not underestimate your power or the combined power of others.

Above all this proves that if you are true to truth, you will be rewarded by it in this life or the next.

U.S Poking Around Iranian Wargames, False Flag Imminent?

2011-12-29T16:00:00.000-08:00

Beware Misleading Articles

2011-12-28T16:00:00.000-08:00

An exercise in perception -

Iran's navy chief warned Wednesday that his country can easily close the strategic Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, the passageway through which a sixth of the world's oil flows.

It was the second such warning in two days. On Tuesday, Vice President Mohamed Reza Rahimi threatened to close the strait, cutting off oil exports, if the West imposes sanctions on Iran's oil shipments.

In response, the Bahrain-based U.S. 5th Fleet's spokeswoman warned that any disruption "will not be tolerated." The spokeswoman, Lt. Rebecca Rebarich, said the U.S. Navy is "always ready to counter malevolent actions to ensure freedom of navigation."

The Real Effect
Let's examine this shall we?

For starters, notice how the article and it's content is summarized for you? This is a convenient way of framing your comprehension of the facts being presented to you. (i.e. - Iran, the aggressor against the U.S.) This is designed to help you interpret the latter content in a different manner than what is actually being presented. (i.e. - U.S., the aggressor against Iran)

But before we examine the front half of the article, let's examine the U.S. position presented

Western nations are growing increasingly impatient with Iran over its nuclear program. The U.S. and its allies have accused Iran of using its civilian nuclear program as a cover to develop nuclear weapons.

Note the word "accused". In the past, Iraq was accused of getting uranium yellowcake from Nigeria. This is the assessment that helped support the war which ultimately ended up being bogus. (Read as fraudulent) In this instance, if there was material proof that such a program was active, it would be waved from coast to coast at this point. It either doesn't exist or isn't strong enough to warrant a war.

Given the lack of evidence thus far, how has the U.S. responded?

The U.S. Congress has passed a bill banning dealings with the Iran Central Bank, and President Barack Obama has said he will sign it despite his misgivings.

and

The bill could impose penalties on foreign firms that do business with Iran's central bank. European and Asian nations import Iranian oil and use its central bank for the transactions

Now, here is the critical portion of the article that gives us the proper context.

Iran has adopted an aggressive military posture in recent months in response to increasing threats from the U.S. and Israel that they may take military action to stop Iran's nuclear program.

Iran is being existentially threatened, therefore they are naturally responding with threats of their own.

Iran's navy chief warned...

More then likely the use of the word "warned" is to create the perception that there is an outright naked threat on behalf the Iranian nation. The use of this word could be called inflammatory because the proceeding does not follow the inclusion of that word. (At least in the manner that it is being presented.)

...that his country can easily close the strategic Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Persian Gulf...

Saying something is possible is not tantamount to saying it is probable let alone a declaration of intent. In this instance, you have a sovereign country, Iran, that is already being targeted by destabilization efforts, sanctions, threats of war and a possible embargo on a necessary energy source (refined gas) and support for the nation. In this manner, Iran is acting consistently with a nation attempting to protect their "national interests".

In short, be careful what you read and how.

Ron Paul IS Winning

2011-12-23T10:30:00.000-08:00

Polls
Nevada Primary Poll - 12/22/2011 (3rd Place)
Mitt Romney 33.1%, Newt Gingrich 29.2%, Ron Paul 12.7%

California Straw Poll - 9/18/2011 (1st Place)
Ron Paul 44.9%, Rick Perry 29.3%, Mitt Romney 8.8%,

MSNBC Reagan Debate Poll - 9/7/2011 (1st Place)
Ron Paul 52.7%, Mitt Romney 16.3%, Rick Perry 13.6%

Gallup Republican Poll - 8/25/2011 (3rd Place)
Rick Perry 29%, Mitt Romney 17% (fell 6%), Ron Paul 13%, Michelle Bachmann 10% (fell 3%)

Azimuth Research Group Texas Poll - 8/17/11 (1st place)
Ron Paul 22%, Rick Perry 17%

Ames Iowa Straw Poll - 8/13/11 (2nd place)
Michele Bachmann 4,823, Ron Paul 4,671, Tim Pawlenty 2,293

Rasmussen Pre-Poll - 8/9/11 (3rd place)
Ron Paul placed third with 16%, following Mitt Romney at second with 21%, and Michele Bachmann in the lead at 22%.

USA TODAY/Gallup Poll - 8/8/11 (3rd place)
Ron Paul at third place among GOP contenders on a national level, with 14%. Second place was Texas Governor, Rick Perry with 17% and leading the field nationally is Mitt Romney with 24%. Michele Bachmann places a close fourth with 13%.

CPAC Poll - 2/16/11 (1st Place)
Ron Paul 30%, Mitt Romney 23%, Gary Johnson 6%

CPAC Poll 2010 (1st Place)
Ron Paul 31%, Mitt Romney 22%, Gary Johnson 6% , Sarah Palin 7%

CPAC Poll 2009 (3rd Place)
20% Mitt Romney, 14% Bobby Jindal, 13% Ron Paul

Note: This is a resource and will be updated as necessary.

Merry Christmas Iran - It's On Like Donkey Kong

2011-12-22T16:00:00.000-08:00

Feliz navidad, uh...happy Bombmas and stuff cuz nothing celebrates the birth of the Lord better then taking out a countries fuel supplies -

The Iranian news agency IRNA reported today that a U.S. missile hit an oil depot in the southwest village of Abadan on Wednesday. IRNA said British and American jets had entered Iranian airspace several times.

In addition to the oil depot attack, two rockets reportedly hit the village of Manyuhi near the border of Iraq’s al-Faw Peninsula near the Persian Gulf and the Iraqi city of Basra.

“In the border city of Arvand-Kenar, the invading American and British airplanes violated the airspace of the Islamic Republic of Iran three times,” a commander told the Islamic Republic News Agency.

The Real Effect
If this is in fact a legitimate story, look for the next set of chess pieces to start moving. I think it's going to be difficult to get Iran to react overtly at first because they know full well that the US will try and paint them as the aggressor. Therefore my assumption is that they may try and get the IAEA in the country sooner in an attempt to call NATO's hand.

Iran also announced on Thursday its envoy to the Vienna-based United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency will meet with the agency’s top nuclear inspector in the first week of January to arrange a visit to Iran as soon as possible. “As far as we are concerned his team can come as soon as they are ready,” said Ali Asghar Soltanieh.

If that's not possible or the hawks in Iran have their way, it's safe to assume that Iran will start directing their resources to take shots at US troops the world over in an attempt to start fires everywhere and destabilize the US military. Watch Syria, Lebanon, parts of Pakistan and specifically the Gulf as Iran stages new exercises.

Iran on Thursday announced it will hold a military exercise beyond the Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Persian Gulf. The exercise may place Iranian navy vessels within proximity of U.S. warships in the area.

According to the Associated Press, the announced Iranian exercise is Iran’s latest show of strength in the face of mounting international criticism over its controversial nuclear program.

Terrorism Charges Happening In the US

2011-12-22T10:30:00.000-08:00

The hyper-spastic reactions continue -

An American citizen from Boston suburb was convicted on Tuesday on terrorism charges, but the charges were loosely defined and the verdict may represent a significant blow to free speech rights.

Federal prosecutors claimed that Tarek Mehanna, 29, traveled to Yemen in 2004 with the hope of training as a terrorist and going on to fight American soldiers in Iraq. He failed to find any training camps, but returned home and allegedly promoted al Qaeda by writing about violent jihad against U.S. foreign policy on the Internet.

Mehanna and his lawyers instead claimed that he traveled to Yemen to receive training to become an Islamic scholar and that his writings on the Internet amounted to free speech.

The Real Effect
Never mind the fact that we're ALL terrorists under Section 802 of the Patriot Act, this is further justification for case law that will be used in ever increasing definitions against the American populace during the coming ~~Globalist Coup~~ Civil War. Why would there be a war? Because they're going to take your goods of course.

Update: You better not investigate a farm, you terr'ist, else we turn yer house into a glass parking lot!

The FBI Joint Terrorism Task Force has kept files on activists who expose animal welfare abuses on factory farms and recommended prosecuting them as terrorists, according to a new document uncovered through the Freedom of Information Act.

Something gives me this feel there's going to be a whole lot of these sorts of things coming out of the woodwork.

U.S. Citizen Assasinations - Coming to a Town Near You

2011-12-21T10:30:00.000-08:00

Begining to understand where we are going yet or is it still tinfoil hat time -

Turley said yesterday on C-Span (starting at 15:50):
President Obama has just stated a policy that he can have any American citizen killed without any charge, without any review, except his own. If he’s satisfied that you are a terrorist, he says that he can kill you anywhere in the world including in the United States.
Two of his aides just … reaffirmed they believe that American citizens can be killed on the order of the President anywhere including the United States.
You’ve now got a president who says that he can kill you on his own discretion. He can jail you indefinitely on his own discretion

The Real Effect
Lest you think this is isolated, I cite the following so you can follow the rationale -

Lawmakers in Louisiana are calling for National Guard troops to patrol the streets of New Orleans after a toddler was killed in a drive-by shooting. The last time troops were involved in domestic law enforcement in the state, they were used to confiscate legally owned firearms in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.

Think of the military as sharks. They are really good at eating and if you have an abundance of something that needs to be eaten, well, you're in luck. Do you really want to open a swimming pool with sharks?

"But wait!" you say "Think of it, there will be no fish in the pool because the sharks will eat them all."
True. But there will also be no swimmers because they will either leave or get eaten.

Such is the case with all military, if you have a need to bust heads and blow things up, they're your man and they will perform admirably. But the military, especially today's military, is not a peace keeping force. They are occupiers and that is what they will do, occupy, disarm and blow things up.

Is this a good response to a shooting??? It is if you want to kill people. History indicates that these actions will escalate the violence, not end it.

Republicans That Respect Neither the Republic Nor Democratic Reform

2011-12-20T10:30:00.000-08:00

I present to you, Abject Lunacy of the Day!

Conservatives and Republican elites in the state are divided over who to support for the GOP nomination, but they almost uniformly express concern over the prospect that Ron Paul and his army of activist supporters may capture the state’s 2012 nominating contest — an outcome many fear would do irreparable harm to the future role of the first-in-the-nation caucuses.

“It would make the caucuses mostly irrelevant if not entirely irrelevant,” said Becky Beach, a longtime Iowa Republican who helped Presidents Bush 41 and Bush 43 here.“It would have a very damaging effect because I don’t think he could be elected president and both Iowa and national Republicans wouldn’t think he represents the will of voters.”

Who cares what you think.

“I don’t think any candidate perverting the process in that fashion helps [the caucuses] in any way,” said Iowa House Speaker Kraig Paulsen, adding that he didn’t know if that’s necessarily how Paul would win.

Somehow I get the feeling that if Romney won that would be a different quote

“They’ll all go back and vote for Obama,” predicted Beach.

You again? Go away....

“If we empower somebody who turns around and elects Obama, then that’s a major problem for the caucuses,” said Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa).

Nice try King, Paul doesn't elect Obama, the people do. And if the they relect Obama, it's because you failed to present a viable candidate. (Oh my, that has a nice ring to it.)

“People are going to look at who comes in second and who comes in third,” said Gov. Terry Branstad. “If [Mitt] Romney comes in a strong second, it definitely helps him going into New Hampshire and the other states.”

The Real Effect

Nice Governer Branstad. Did you just undermine the efficacy of your own primaries for political reasons?!? Iowa, why do you have this reject in here? As I stated in another venue yesterday, watch him win on January 3rd and then they promptly start talking about who came in second.

This matter is simple, either the primary is legitimate or it is not. If it is illegitimate, then why are we holding it at a substantial cost to taxpayers and if it is legitimate, then why are we trying to pretend someone else won? This only undermines the electoral process and creates inherent instability. More importantly, this further reveals that the Republican party is not interested in "We the People..." but in truth is interested solely in "We the Party..."

This raises a serious question that needs to be examined further - Will the GOP overtly attempt to undermine the democratic process if Paul wins? Will they attempt to portray the situation as a "do over"? If so, America could be facing a far more grave Constitutional crisis at the hands of the Neocons who cry foul over Obama's usurpation.

To Those With Thin Skin - Either Examine Your Motives or Accept That You've Fallen

2011-12-19T10:30:00.000-08:00

Rationalization seems to be the primary reason why people 'turn to the darkside' -

The Real Effect
I can hear the protests now, '...but...but...the priest was ruled out of order.' Folks, this is the scam that is being run against us consistently and it's working to a large degree. Some of our "representatives" are attempting to circumvent the rules by trying to legally remove their own shackles. It is for this precise reason that these fools were shackled in the first place lest our checkbook and hides know no end to their... cough...benevolence.

This is why rules and procedures and laws are put in place, so that one entity cannot abuse another or at the very least the situation can be redressed. But what redress is available when your own 'servants' have raided your storehouses and have set themselves up as your lords?

The citizens of this country must remain vigilant, this is a dark time in which the globalists are seeking to overthrow, via a legal coup if possible, the stated desires of its populace. These sort of instances must not be allowed to stand.

Ron Paul Gets Summarily Dismissed By "Republicans"

2011-12-16T14:30:00.000-08:00

You would think, given their reaction to Dr. Paul, that the guy is Satan incarnate -

The Iowa primary is widely acknowledged as a hugely influential indication of who the eventual victor will be in the Republican race. Two of the last three winners have gone on to become the successful nominee. But according to Fox News pundit Chris Wallace, if Ron Paul wins on January 3rd – it doesn’t count.

“The Ron Paul people are not going to like my saying this,” said Wallace. “But to a certain degree, it will discredit the Iowa caucuses because, rightly or wrongly, I think most of the Republican establishment thinks he’s not going to end up as the nominee. So therefore, Iowa won’t count.”

The Real Effect

Could you be any more obvious? The man is seen as one of the most conservative individuals not only of this current Congress, but of the century. He's a doctor, he's a statesman, he's intelligent, he's consistent and most importantly HE DOESN'T LIE TO YOU. The Neocons put up candidate after candidate that claims to be a George Washington, a Defender of the People's Rights and The Most Important Person in the Most Important Position in the Most Important Election...EVAH!!!! The Great Mass hope Scott Brown...anyone, anyone!?! (Does Brown remind anyone of Romney?) Dr. Paul will be that man. He's shown it again and again and our country desperately needs his character.

What this consistently demonstrates is not as much the electability of Dr. Paul, but the character of those who oppose him. The main point of opposition being relegated to a stance on a country that no one here governs! Yet, the tired old mantras march ever forward...

He's unelectable...
His lack of support of Israel bothers me...
His foreign policy bothers me...

News flash! We're broke! A continuation of this tired interventionist policy is going to gain us a World War, several smaller wars, economic bankruptcy and most importantly millions dead. Where is the compassion in that position? Where is the Pro-Life culture?!?

That's right, you'd rather engage in the new Amerikan sacrament, bombing brown people!

US troops surrounding the Syrian border?

2011-12-15T16:00:00.000-08:00

We're Not In Iran, We're Not In...Ok, We're In Iran

2011-12-14T10:30:00.000-08:00

As if this shouldn't be completely obvious even to a casual observer by now -

Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, in an exclusive interview with Fox News, said that the stealth drone campaign along the Iran-Afghanistan border will "absolutely" continue despite the loss of a valuable and sophisticated drone to Iran.

The mysterious loss of the RQ-170 Sentinel drone has revealed not only that the U.S. was spying on Iran, but also that the program was being run from Shindad Air Base in western Afghanistan.

Panetta would not comment directly on what that drone was doing over Iran, but he said the U.S. military has no plans to halt the drone operation out of western Afghanistan.

I'm not a betting man, but if pushed, I'm guessing the drones have something to do with this -

As the US completes its final withdrawal from Iraq, American special forces troops have been diverted to positions in Jordan opposite a Syrian tank concentration building up across the kingdom's northern border, debkafile's military and intelligence sources report.

As of last Thursday, military convoys, air transports and helicopters have been lifting US troops across the border from Iraq. They have been deployed in position to ward off a possible Syrian invasion in the light of President Bashar Assad's warning that he would set the entire Middle East on fire if the pressure on his regime to step down persisted.

The Real Effect

Now what would US force possibly be doing in Jordan? Could they be thinking of invading Syria to provoke Iran? Naaaaah...

It looks like this is going to turn into one of those "Who shot first?" incidents.

Update: Does Israel know something?

“Basically, it’s inevitable,” Barak said in a telephone interview before flying Wednesday to Washington for meetings with Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and other administration officials. “The Assad family, through their own behavior, have lost their last drop of legitimacy and put themselves beyond the point of no return with their brutal slaughter of their own people. He has ceased to be something relevant.”

“It might take many weeks,” Barak added, “but it’s not a matter of months or years.”

In a separate interview, Moshe Ya’alon, the minister of Strategic Affairs, said: “It’s a matter of time and bloodshed before we will witness Assad’s departure. That is our assessment.”

Mitt Romney in Worcester 2002 "My views are progressive"

2011-12-13T16:00:00.000-08:00

Mideast Notes - Things are Heating Up, Again

2011-12-12T10:30:00.000-08:00

Troops are appearing near Syria -

Whistleblower activist Sibel Edmonds reported on Sunday that “foreign military groups, estimated at hundreds of individuals,” have taken up positions in the city of al-Mafraq in northern Jordan on the Syrian border.

An update on Edmonds’ blog, Boiling Frogs, states that a “journalist with a major mainstream media publication was told by his editors that there would be no coverage or follow up on these developments.”

The presence of foreign troops were also reported by a Jordanian military officer who asked to remain anonymous. He said hundreds of soldiers who speak languages other than Arabic were seen during the past two days (as of Sunday) moving back and forth in military vehicles between the King Hussein Air Base in al-Mafraq, ten kilometers from the Syrian border, and the vicinity of Jordanian villages near the Syrian border, including Albaej, the area around the dam of Sarhan, the villages of Zubaydiah and al-Nahdah adjacent to the Syrian border.

Of course Iran won't take that without its own display of force -

A member of the Iranian parliament's National Security Committee said on Monday that the military was set to practise its ability to close the Gulf to shipping at the narrow Strait of Hormuz, the most important oil transit channel in the world, but there was no official confirmation.

The legislator, Parviz Sarvari, told the student news agency ISNA: "Soon we will hold a military manoeuvre on how to close the Strait of Hormuz. If the world wants to make the region insecure, we will make the world insecure."

The Real Effect
This morning on political talk radio, I heard a staunch neocon correctly list the virtues of arming individuals with guns and how this act of arming would add to societal stability by deterring aggressive criminals. This same laughable neocon line of thought, would see the world disarmed in an attempt to promote "world peace". Please don't ask me when these individuals traded in their brains for a bag of hammers, but it certainly wasn't yesterday.

If one examines the situation in the gulf, you come to a few, supportable positions:

Iran is the aggressor and the U.S. is the victim.
The U.S. is the aggressor and Iran is the victim.
Neither holds true.

If the first is true, please explain how Iran has transgressed the U.S. If the latter two are true, which I believe can be thoroughly demonstrated, note how Iran, by threatening to close the gulf, has kept the occupiers at bay? Further, does not the cold war teach us that MAD will actually promote real peace? If so, shouldn't these individuals be giving Iran nukes like they did to China?

Update: It appears that others get this concept as well.

The idea that America should cross the globe solving every nation's problems is a progressive one. And it makes sense when you think about it. The left generally accepts that the government ought to have a very active role in society, alleviating poverty, ensuring a level playing field or the little guy, and so on. So why wouldn't the same be true of foreign policy as well?

This isn't just a matter of consistency in an abstract sense. The contradiction here has serious practical implications. Every Republican contender has preached about the need to cut the size of government, yet only Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) has discussed the need to cut back our military spending, which consumes one-fifth of the federal budget. The right-to-life argument comes into play here as well. The candidates all take a hard line stance against abortion, but the casualties of war, unfortunate as they war, are one of the necessary evils of achieving our international goals.

Budget Cuts Come to the DoD, Watch the Republicans Squirm

2011-12-09T11:30:00.000-08:00

Listen to the partisans thunder and roar as the sacred cows come crashing down -

With deeper budget cuts looming, the Pentagon is starting to cut back by trimming the Defense Department’s civilian workforce.

The Army said Thursday it is moving forward with plans announced in July to cut about 8,700 positions, using a mix of early retirement offers, buyouts and attrition to trim the jobs by the end of the fiscal year in late September.

The Real Effect
Really, the DoD should be called the Department of War again. But it becomes hard to justify your little incursions into smaller countries when the press is writing about War and not Defense. Let this serve as a reminder to anyone who gets confused by such things -

Defense: The action of defending from or resisting attack.

As I have long held, the Republicans are just as bad as the Democrats and in some cases, worse. Countless wars on myriads of continents at trillions of dollars in cost eventually come home to roost. We covered this earlier -

Exactly how does one project one's military power when one is bankrupt? Tactically speaking, why would you hold a position that you know you cannot defend?!?

Of course, the easy answer to this is, you can't. How can you borrow from China when China is the enemy? At best this places the country in an untenable position of either stealing to continue its binge or starting with painful cuts and seeing as how the states are already broke, things are only going to worse for the foreseeable future.

From 2005 - the Republican "Victory on the Budget"?

The following article blew my mind when I read it. It appears that House Majority Leader Tom DeLay feels that the government has declared "victory" and that there is 'simply no fat left to cut in the federal budget.' I believe this betrays many who in good faith voted for representatives that they honestly believed that they would hold the conservative line. Sucks to be deceived, no?

As I sit here somewhat shell-shocked, I wonder how many conservatives really believe much of the tripe they have been ingesting from these posers formerly known as conservatives. Honestly, did we expect anything else?

Listen to these fools if you must. I mean, how wrong can they be?

North American Union - Phase One - December 07, 2011

2011-12-08T10:30:00.000-08:00

OWS - About the Reported '30 Tons of Garbage'

2011-12-07T10:30:00.000-08:00

Perception is often not reality, from the news media on the Occupy L.A. -

Sanitation officials said Wednesday that they expect to haul away 30 tons of debris from the Occupy L.A. encampment –- everything from clothing to heaps of garbage to oddball curiosities left behind by the protesters who lived at the City Hall tent city for two months.

Andrea Alarcon, president of the city Public Works board, said workers already have removed 25 tons of belongings from the City Hall park, all of it heading straight to a landfill.

Sanitation crews also have vacuumed up about 3,000 gallons of water that had washed into a catch basin in recent days and are testing it for hazardous materials, she said.

The Real Effect
This is another chance to use our critical thinking skills. Let's lok at a clue that is presented in the article iteself.

...workers already have removed 25 tons of belongings from the City Hall park, all of it heading straight to a landfill.

This is far too amusing to even pass as news but it perfectly illustrates how the government operates. When you need to achieve a goal, change the definition. But let's get some more confirmation on this idea from someone that was actually there -

As we sat there, encircled, a separate team of LAPD officers used knives to slice open every personal tent in the park. They forcibly removed anyone sleeping inside, and then yanked out and destroyed any personal property inside those tents, scattering the contents across the park. They then did the same with the communal property of the Occupy LA movement.

Got it? The officers wrecked all the property then dispersed it so that they could perform their "sanitation" efforts. If you think that's bad, look at how the people were treated for 'resisting arrest'.

I unlinked my arms voluntarily and informed the LAPD officers that I would go peacefully and cooperatively. I stood as instructed, and then I had my arms wrenched behind my back, and an officer hyperextended my wrists into my inner arms. It was super violent, it hurt really really bad, and he was doing it on purpose. When I involuntarily recoiled from the pain, the LAPD officer threw me face-first to the pavement. He had my hands behind my back, so I landed right on my face. The officer dropped with his knee on my back and ground my face into the pavement. It really, really hurt and my face started bleeding and I was very scared. I begged for mercy and I promised that I was honestly not resisting and would not resist.

My hands were then zipcuffed very tightly behind my back, where they turned blue. I am now suffering nerve damage in my right thumb and palm.

I was put on a paddywagon with other nonviolent protestors and taken to a parking garage in Parker Center. They forced us to kneel on the hard pavement of that parking garage for seven straight hours with our hands still tightly zipcuffed behind our backs. Some began to pass out. One man rolled to the ground and vomited for a long, long time before falling unconscious. The LAPD officers watched and did nothing.

Finally, what is the criminal charge being levied???

The charge was sitting in the park after the police said not to. It’s a misdemeanor. Almost always, for a misdemeanor, the police just give you a ticket and let you go. It costs you a couple hundred dollars. Apparently, that’s what happened with most every other misdemeanor arrest in LA that day. With us Occupy LA protestors, however, they set bail at $5,000 and booked us into jail. Almost none of the protesters could afford to bail themselves out. I’m lucky and I could afford it, except the LAPD spent all day refusing to actually *accept* the bail they set.

Newt Gingrich: Serial Hypocrisy

2011-12-06T16:00:00.001-08:00

Europe Get's Put on CreditWatch - Downgrades Coming

2011-12-06T16:00:00.000-08:00

Behold the coming desolation of Europe -

Standard & Poor's Ratings Services today placed its long-term sovereign ratings on 15 members of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU or eurozone) on CreditWatch with negative implications.

We expect to conclude our review of eurozone sovereign ratings as soon as possible following the EU summit scheduled for Dec. 8 and 9, 2011. Depending on the score changes, if any, that our rating committees agree are appropriate for each sovereign, we believe that ratings could be lowered by up to one notch for Austria, Belgium, Finland, Germany, Netherlands, and Luxembourg, and by up to two notches for the other governments. [THIS MEANS FRANCE]

The Real Effect
Nice top we've gotten here in the markets the last few weeks. Got a seatbelt on? Time to take a plunge dooooooooown!

‘Occupy’ Protesters Listed As Domestic Terrorists

2011-12-06T07:00:00.000-08:00

Well, that certainly didn't take long. From the U.K. -

Occupy London demonstrators have been listed as domestic terrorists by the City of London Police, who characterized them in the same context as Al-Qaeda, the Colombian FARC and Belarusian terrorists who bombed the Minsk underground.

“The City of London Police force was facing criticism last night after including the Occupy London demonstration in a letter warning businesses about potential terrorist threats,” reports the Independent.

The Real Effect
Last week we posited the following -

Now who wants to bet that Occupy Wall Street could be construed as "acts dangerous to human life that are a violation of the criminal laws of the United States or of any State" and"appear to be intended" "to intimidate or coerce a civilian population"?

Just a few short days later and the UK is boldly going where the US will go on a later date. Don't believe me? Just six short years ago this blog was documenting the seemingly absurd concept of setting up video surveillance of all streets. Today, just go to a major highway and drive around for a bit, you'll find them real quick. For whatever reason, the UK seems to be a few years ahead of us on many of these concepts.

Anyways, I digress.

In the same article I cited earlier, I also made the following observation -

It's quite easy to understand the argument that is being made here. Because the executive branch is executing the war, they alone possess the needed intelligence and relevant policies to determine how they need to deal with an individual. The little problem with that argument though is that all U.S. citizens are protected by the Constitution. Remove that protection and you have removed the rule of law and subsequently rendered any executive decision supportable if given enough PR and time.

Enter Paul Craig Roberts -

The November 17 letter to the Senate from the Executive Office of the President says that the Obama regime does not want the authority it has under the Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF), Public Law 107-40, to be codified. Codification is risky, the regime says. “After a decade of settled jurisprudence on detention authority, Congress must be careful not to open a whole new series of legal questions that will distract from our efforts to protect the country.”

In other words, the regime is saying that under AUMF the executive branch has total discretion as to who it detains and how it treats detainees.

Exactly.

This leads into the main point of that article which is that you are now the target under these modifications of the law.

Put simply -> Open ended war via Authorization for Use of Military Force -> The executive is now empowered to prosecute the 'war' in any way it sees fit including the assassination of US citizens -> Any attempt to curtail this power is seen as a challenge on unconstitutional executive power as subsequently put down.

This is THE definition of a dictatorship. What is allowed is discussion on if these actions are necessary. What is not allowed is debate on if it exists in the first place.

This is not a left issue (since they hold the executive) nor is it a right issue (since they hold the House). This is a law issue. The Constitution was ratified in part to protect our rights and all branches of government receive their power from it. Failure to abide by it and attempts to circumvent it are unjust and illegal. Congress cannot override it any more then your local librarian can write her own warrant justifying her presence in your house.

“And how we burned in the camps later, thinking: What would things have been like if every Security operative, when he went out at night to make an arrest, had been uncertain whether he would return alive and had to say good-bye to his family? Or if, during periods of mass arrests, as for example in Leningrad, when they arrested a quarter of the entire city, people had not simply sat there in their lairs, paling with terror at every bang of the downstairs door and at every step on the staircase, but had understood they had nothing left to lose and had boldly set up in the downstairs hall an ambush of half a dozen people with axes, hammers, pokers, or whatever else was at hand?... The Organs would very quickly have suffered a shortage of officers and transport and, notwithstanding all of Stalin's thirst, the cursed machine would have ground to a halt! If...if...We didn't love freedom enough. And even more – we had no awareness of the real situation.... We purely and simply deserved everything that happened afterward.”
― Aleksandr I. Solzhenitsyn

Update: Here comes Fox news with the same concept.

One of Fox's top radio shows is "Fox News & Commentary with Todd Starnes". Starnes has been a regular contributor on TV with FOX & Friends and Sean Hannity, but he makes his name on his radio show. Starnes fits the role of a Fox News employee, he's conservative, Christian and hates President Obama. Starnes has also decided to use the internet to voice his options through his twitter account.

"Todd's #cnndebabte question "What should be done with the domestic terrorists who are occupying our cities and college campuses? #ows"

War With Iran - A Bipartisan Endeavor

2011-12-05T10:30:00.000-08:00

Who said just the Republicans have lost their minds in overwhelmingly supporting yet another war that can't be paid for -

The U.S. Senate took aim at the Iranian central bank in an effort to choke off oil exports, while the European Union stopped short of targeting crude as it tightened sanctions intended to curb Iran’s nuclear program.

The Senate bill, passed unanimously yesterday, would give the president the power starting July 1 to bar foreign financial institutions that do business with Iran’s central bank from having correspondent bank accounts in the U.S. If enacted, it could be much harder for foreign companies to pay for oil imports from Iran, the world’s third-largest crude exporter. The Obama administration opposes the legislation.

The Real Effect

Policy can be a wonderful thing. It can help to shape, mold and direct an otherwise shapeless situation. Policy without the ability to project that policy is just useless prattle at best and dangerous at worst. The US is functionally bankrupt and has been for quite some time, buoyed in the short term by massive borrowing, the productivity and cooperation of it's citizens. The apex of this funding has come and gone, but like all regimes that fall,we want to deny reality. The Federal Reserve is purchasing assets at a staggering rate, propping up the economy but assassinating the dollar. The only saving grace so far has been that all other economies feel the need to die on the economic sword as well, especially Europe. (Funny, isn't it this disjointed economic balance that led to a post WWII US to out-compete a bombed out Europe?)

With both parties slapping tape over the economic warning lights of the economy, will it be any wonder when the economic engine not only seizes, but bursts into flames? Of course, no one saw it coming. Naturally if Iran gets bothered enough, they will cut off oil exports which will in turn destroy much of the remaining economy.

Of course, we might be able to deal with Iran. I'm sure a few bombed carriers would ensure the patriotic resolve needed to get it done. But China and Russia as well? Not too bright...

Government Waging War on It's Citizens

2011-12-01T10:30:00.000-08:00

As if the aptly named "Patriot Act" shouldn't be enough, the slippery slope turns into more of a mudslide -

U.S. citizens are legitimate military targets when they take up arms with al-Qaida, top national security lawyers in the Obama administration said Thursday.

The lawyers were asked at a national security conference about the CIA killing of Anwar al-Awlaki, a U.S. citizen and leading al-Qaida figure. He died in a Sept. 30 U.S. drone strike in the mountains of Yemen.

The government lawyers, CIA counsel Stephen Preston and Pentagon counsel Jeh Johnson, did not directly address the al-Awlaki case. But they said U.S. citizens don't have immunity when they're at war with the United States.

Johnson said only the executive branch, not the courts, is equipped to make military battlefield targeting decisions about who qualifies as an enemy.

The Real Effect
It's quite easy to understand the argument that is being made here. Because the executive branch is executing the war, they alone possess the needed intelligence and relevant policies to determine how they need to deal with an individual. The little problem with that argument though is that all U.S. citizens are protected by the Constitution. Remove that protection and you have removed the rule of law and subsequently rendered any executive decision supportable if given enough PR and time.

Contrary to popular opinion, these situations are not all like the drama 24 with precious seconds ticking and a nuke waiting to go off in L.A. Even if such a situation were to exist, the worst case scenario would be several million dead. On the flip side, if the executive gets it's way we could still be looking at millions dead and tens of millions subjugated at the hands of a bloodthirsty dictatorship. Sheer numbers alone say that it is far better to take your chances and trust that empowering anyone with the means to destroy this country from within is not a terrible idea, but based on the government data from the last century alone it is highly evil.

Of course you could always take your chances that you don't fit this definition -

the term `domestic terrorism' means activities that--

`(A) involve acts dangerous to human life that are a violation of the criminal laws of the United States or of any State;

`(B) appear to be intended--

`(i) to intimidate or coerce a civilian population;

`(ii) to influence the policy of a government by intimidation or coercion; or

`(iii) to affect the conduct of a government by mass destruction, assassination, or kidnapping; and

Section 802 of the Patriot Act

Now who wants to bet that Occupy Wall Street could be construed as "acts dangerous to human life that are a violation of the criminal laws of the United States or of any State" and"appear to be inteded" "to intimidate or coerce a civilian population"?

Instant nullification of the 1st Amendment anyone?

Neocon Wars on Terror an Abject Failure

2011-11-29T10:30:00.000-08:00

This is what trillions of dollars, millions of lives and a decade of Neocon policy have bought us -

The most senior figure in the US military has warned that the number of threats facing his country and its allies have increased over the last decade and that the armed forces must be kept strong to fight back.

In his first speech since taking over as chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, General Martin Dempsey told an audience in London on Monday that meeting the new challenges in a time of austerity would require a transformation in military thinking.

He highlighted the cyber threat as one of the most pressing, and said more needed to be done to counter the dangers online.

"Our traditional alliances and partnerships around the world are the stable platform on which we will confront these challenges," he said. "Yet it cannot be lost on us that we now face known and unknown security challenges in the context of a new fiscal reality.

The Real Effect
Vox in the past has asked an excellent question - Exactly how does one project one's military power when one is bankrupt? Tactically speaking, why would you hold a position that you know you cannot defend?!? For example, Russia lost much of it's ability to wage war when it went belly up about 20 years back. The same holds true for the Old Roman Empire. What make us think we can dodge this bullet? In short, it is a fool's errand.

It does not matter how many Muslims there are or terrorists or angry protestors, at some point you have to say we are overextended. Sadly, The United States reached that position a decade ago. But rather then accept our losses and move on, we are about to learn the lesson of what happens what the horde comes knocking when you don't have enough military support.

We should close most, if not all overseas bases, eliminate four aircraft carriers, pull them back to defending out coastlines, secure our border and eliminate most of the CIA. But of course, that won't happen. Instead we will get a proposal to integrate into a Pan-American Union that will doom the US to the annals of history.

A Look Around the World

2011-11-28T10:30:00.000-08:00

Fraud rules the day as everywhere the blinders are coming off at an astounding rate -

The Federal Reserve and the big banks fought for more than two years to keep details of the largest bailout in U.S. history a secret. Now, the rest of the world can see what it was missing.

The Fed didn’t tell anyone which banks were in trouble so deep they required a combined $1.2 trillion on Dec. 5, 2008, their single neediest day. Bankers didn’t mention that they took tens of billions of dollars in emergency loans at the same time they were assuring investors their firms were healthy. And no one calculated until now that banks reaped an estimated $13 billion of income by taking advantage of the Fed’s below-market rates, Bloomberg Markets magazine reports in its January issue.

To review, we go back to a time before the loan was even heard of, Sept of 2008 -

Sooo...
How much would it cost? Prof Kenneth Rogoff, former chief economist at the IMF, says the bill would run to at least $1 trillion. This would increase the US government debt from 48pc to 55pc of GDP (under IMF measures) - still lower than that of Germany, France, Italy or Japan. (Reminds me of the argument used for gas prices)
Oh, only a 48-55% increase in government debt, well at least we're not crazy like Japan. At least we're not selling our children into slavery with interest payments via the IRS.
Let's get a few things straight here:
"They" are not "us". If the banks fail, then let them fail! It is the consequence of their consummate greed in over-leveraging these loans. This money used for the bailout is coming out of your pocketbook and going into theirs. When was the last time a bank or corporation was this nice and allowed you to set your debt aside at their expense?
"You" will be left holding the bill. Your children and grandchildren will be held responsible for paying off this debt when it comes due.
This will not fix the real problem. Do you really think giving someone a free ride when they are being greedy is going to change the behavior? There is no negative incentive for them not to participate in the behavior.
The downside to this is way above one trillion - This figure is optimistic. If things get ugly, the taxpayers are holding tens, if not hundreds, of trillions of dollars in these "toxic" loans. Oops...

Could this be any more accurate? Now that the dust has settled, the national debt has increased by 50%, the economy is tanking again (it never stopped) and we find out that what they said was going to happen, did not in fact happen.(Try factoring in the cost of Fannie, Freddie, GM and other bailouts to get a very conservative idea of just how much this is costing you.) Of course all of this is with the implicit blessings of the Republicans AND the Democrats. And now will come the clarion cry that you, oh stupid taxpayer, are on the hook for all this. This leads us to our next story...

Under the ‘worldwide indefinite detention without charge or trial’ provision of S.1867, the National Defense Authorization Act bill, which is set to be up for a vote on the Senate floor this week, the legislation will “basically say in law for the first time that the homeland is part of the battlefield,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), who supports the bill.

The bill was drafted in secret by Senators Carl Levin (D-Mich.) and John McCain (R-Ariz.), before being passed in a closed-door committee meeting without any kind of hearing. The language appears in sections 1031 and 1032 of the NDAA bill.

My oh my, the Republicans including the last presidential candidate, want to go against Posse Comitatus and start using the military on U.S. citizens? Noooo....who would have seen that coming way back in Mar of 2010 during the recovery?

At some point, the counties will have no point but to virtually declare war on these areas as they ~~first deploy their National Guard, oh wait they're in Iraq(n)~~, appeal to the Pentagon for help containing the problem. But then again, there's that whole Posse Comitatus problem.

Eventually all laws that secure liberty will be viewed as the enemy as they "prevent' the police/military from "doing their job" and will be repealed. But first, urban warfare.

Of course, The Real Effect has been covering this exact scenario for its almost seven year existence.

"But, but..." you say, we're fighting the dirty, dirty arabs. Oh really says I, then please explain this -

The same Al-Qaeda terrorists who fought U.S. troops in Iraq and helped NATO overthrow Colonel Gaddafi are now being airlifted into Syria to aid rebels there in toppling President Bashar al-Assad.

Libya’s transitional ruling authority has agreed to send weapons and fighters over to Syria to help the Free Syrian Army fight government forces.

“There is something being planned to send weapons and even Libyan fighters to Syria,” a Libyan source told the London Telegraph, speaking on condition of anonymity. “There is a military intervention on the way. Within a few weeks you will see.”

In a separate piece, the Telegraph also reports that terrorist commander Abdulhakim Belhadj, now head of the Tripoli Military Council, “met with Free Syrian Army leaders in Istanbul and on the border with Turkey,” after being sent there by Mustafa Abdul Jalil, the interim Libyan president.

You got that? The terrorists are now our allies as we start going after ~~Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, Libya,~~ Syria. (And by proxy Russia, Iran and China) Of course, we've got that covered too.

Look for continued unrest with some governments getting overthrown. But as I indicated earlier, the globalists are literally banking on this to occur. We are still not there yet though. More riots need to take place, some shots, some new faces and then, we go to war.

Getting the picture yet?

Red Alert: Liquidity Freezes Up, Behold the Slow-Motion Death of the Eurozone

2011-11-23T10:30:00.000-08:00

Too bad this was all planned in advance -

This morning Germany had a failed Bund auction. That's not particularly noteworthy; it happens from time to time.
But what's noteworthy is what happened to bond yields everywhere through Europe in response: They blew out.
The Greek and Italian "problem" is no longer about Greece and Italy. It has been creeping into Spain and more-recently France, but this morning jumped into Germany and everywhere else "all at once."
Capital has said "no more" to the lies in Europe. While this does not mean an instant implosion it does mean one important thing: The willingness of capital holders to continue to permit deficit spending is coming to an end, and with it the false "GDP" that this lie has "supported" will also come to an end.

The Real Effect
As predicted (Before the first crash)-

Notice how on the above picture that the bottom of the "Great Depression" didn't come until much later than the intial plunge? The market is reacting like an addict, convulsing with desire for more goods (I.E. - Fiat debt-based liquidity). This will only make the fall that much harder.

Just 'who owes this debt?' is at the center of this debate? The private banksters would like you to think that when profits are to be made, this is a capitalistic country, but when losses abound we all need to share the burden. This strikes to the heart of the private property issue. Anyone that believes that we should be bailing these institutions out does NOT believe in the rule of private property and as a natural extension of that, capitalism.

This is the large bulk of the OWS position and to a lesser extent the Tea Party position. What will be telling is if the people can raise among themselves principled individuals to see to it that the rule of law will be respected in this country. More then likely, corrupt individuals will see this as a chance to seize the ring of power and use it for their own ends. There are plenty of shady criminals waiting in the wings, biding their time and when the situation arises, they will speak in grand terms and talk of unification and love in order to usurp the power as their own.

Make no mistake, this IS going to blow out in the Americas and from there the call will go out to emulate the new EU model. We must resist this at all costs.

So where are we going?

All Americans would do well to consider the implications of these items in light of our current ongoing currency/economic collapse. Once the Union hooks are in, you can't get out and those politicians are going to make sure that they get their pound of flesh.

The EU will make it through this in one form or another (It might cease to be called the EU but it will still be the EU.) However, the globalists will see to it that America and vestige of independent thinking burns.

GRAPHIC: Video of brutal crackdown on Tahrir Sq protesters in Cairo

2011-11-21T10:30:00.000-08:00

And yet we think supporting "freedom fighters" is a good idea...

Police cracking down on media at OWS?

2011-11-17T16:00:00.000-08:00

US Banks Face 'Contagion' Risk From EU Banks - In Short, Nothing Has Changed

2011-11-17T10:30:00.000-08:00

My oh my, whatever will the poor 'ole banks do?

U.S. banks face a “serious risk” that their creditworthiness will deteriorate if Europe’s debt crisis deepens and spreads beyond the five most-troubled nations, Fitch Ratings said.

“Unless the euro zone debt crisis is resolved in a timely and orderly manner, the broad credit outlook for the U.S. banking industry could worsen,” the New York-based rating company said yesterday in a statement. Even as U.S. banks have “manageable” exposure to stressed European markets, “further contagion poses a serious risk,” Fitch said, without explaining what it meant by contagion.

The “exposures” of U.S. lenders to major European banks and the stressed nations of Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain, known as the GIIPS, are smaller than those to some of the continent’s larger countries, Fitch said.

The six biggest U.S. banks -- JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), Bank of America Corp. (BAC), Citigroup Inc. (C), Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC), Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley (MS) -- had $50 billion in risk tied to the GIIPS on Sept. 30, Fitch said. So-called cross-border outstandings to France for all except Wells Fargo were $188 billion, including $114 billion to French banks. Risk to Britain and its banks was $225 billion and $51 billion, respectively.

The Real Effect
A wise man once said -

This is not a recession, it is a depression. And a massive one at that. We are not at the bottom, we are on gaining momentum for the next plunge down. If you thought the last drop was bad, this one is going to strike fear into the hearts of men everywhere. The Dow will push through the last market low of 7,392.27, then 6000 and after that 3000. As capitol assets are ravished, what you will be seeing is the consumption of the golden goose in a proverbial feasting on the rotting carcass of the American consumer. If you disagree, ask yourself the following, what is holding US up?

We have proof of that final bold point here -

...banks feel compelled to level the kind of fees that alienate many consumers. "If you don't make a sufficient amount of money and don't have a good enough cash flow to maintain minimum balance, you might get hit with minimum balance fees or monthly fees," said Streit. "If you make $8 or $9 an hour, and you get with $70 in fees per month, that's painful."

$70 a month on a $500 deposit!?! That would be close to 100% annualized! (In easy speak, after a year of keeping your $500 at the banks, it would be GONE!) It really must be terrible for these banks to have to make a few data entries and then loan out that deposit at up to 300:1!!!

Nothing has changed. Nothing. Derivatives are still being sold in massive quantities, in part because the banks realize that you, the U.S. Taxpayer are the implicit backstop to their positions. Talk about moral hazard!

IMF Riots, OWS, Terrorism, Homeland Security and the American Union

2011-11-16T10:30:00.001-08:00

Perception is often times not reality -

Wonkette reports that Homeland Security likely organized the crack downs:

Remember when people were freaking out over the Patriot Act and Homeland Security and all this other conveniently ready-to-go post-9/11 police state stuff, because it would obviously be just a matter of time before the whole apparatus was turned against non-Muslim Americans when they started getting complain-y about the social injustice and economic injustice and income inequality and endless recession and permanent unemployment? That day is now, and has been for some time. But it’s also now confirmed that it’s now, as some Justice Department official screwed up and admitted that the Department of Homeland Security coordinated the riot-cop raids on a dozen major #Occupy Wall Street demonstration camps nationwide yesterday and today. (Oh, and tonight, too: Seattle is being busted up by the riot cops right now, so be careful out there.)

The Real Effect
Let's make this real simple -

Fund ~~terrorists~~ freedom fighters via an alphabet soup agency (In our "national interest)->
Freedom fighters "destabilize region" ->
Either

invade or
recognize new "duly elected government" ->

Declare freedom fighters "terrorists" ->
(If you haven't done so yet, invade) ->
Terrorists ~~fight back~~ commit "terrorist attacks" or an alphabet soup agency "helps them" (A repeat of step 1) ->

Now all of this creates "blowback", a term that loosely describes how an individual or entity gets pretty hacked off when you mess with their stuff or people. Kind of like revenge or justice in some situations. So with this in mind, let's pick up our scenario again.

Blowback is generated in which the "terrorists" seek revenge by carrying out some sort of act ->
This act is framed as an act of war and a violation of the "safety" that the politicians "promised us" ->
Departments and agencies are created to get around protective rights ->
These entities enact "policy" (not law) that oppress the "terrorists" ->
This creates more blowback (Back to step 1)

In our situation in America, we have bank(sters) that have created a policy of theft. The target of their theft, the American people, is wisening up and marching under the protection of the 1st Amendment to demand justice. The banksters, through a sophisticated command and control system, dictate the response to the ~~protesters~~ terrorists by demonizing and then removing the threat to the system. Note, this is being done with support from many citizens because they have bought into the lie that the protesters are terrorists.

This is why the Department of Homeland Security was created. This is why there is a "War on Terror". This is why you see cameras going in everywhere.

The banksters are not fools. They know that you aren't going to stand by as the Vampiric Squid sucks you dry. (Case in point, Iceland) At this point they are trying to direct your rage against each other and a foreign enemy.

Look for continued unrest with some governments getting overthrown. But as I indicated earlier, the globalists are literally banking on this to occur. We are still not there yet though. More riots need to take place, some shots, some new faces and then, we go to war.

Debt Diets & Riots: Euro Lose/Lose?

2011-11-15T16:00:00.000-08:00

The Republican Presidency In a Nutshell

2011-11-15T10:30:00.000-08:00

"We love Romney! Just check out that coif!"
Uh, he created the precursor to Obamacare in Massachusetts.

"Well, we love Trump! That man is on top of things. And the birth certificate."
He's virtually liberal. And when they unveiled the purported "birth certificate", it was obviously tampered with. Where is he now?

"We love Mitch Daniels!"
His state is basically ending the Fourth Amendment. Where is he on that issue?

"We love Newt Gingrich!"
Are you guys for real? He's a globalist!

"We love Herman Cain!!! He's so conservative and Constitutional."
The guy was a Federal Reserve Chair! You know, the one's that got us into this mess!?! Plus he doesn't even support the Second Amendment!!!

"We love Rick Pe..."
For the love of Pete, SHUT UP!!!

Update: Five months later and the same old record just keeps on spinning...

"We love Herman Cain!!! He's the man with the 999 plan!"
You again!?! Have you seen the guy talk about Libya? He's brain dead. (And you want to talk about Ron Paul's allegedly "atrocious" foreign policy.)

"Ok, we like Romney again! He's not as bad as Obama."
And Obama is not as bad as Satan. Please just stop while you're ahead!

"Here come's Gingrich! We know he's a globalist. But he tickles our ears so and we can control him."
Sure you can.

"We like NotRonPaul.... He's such a conservative candidate. Besides, Paul can't win."
He can't?!? Aieeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee......

More Can Kicking, Obfuscation and Pyramiding In the Budgets Around the Country

2011-11-14T10:30:00.000-08:00

Who says that taxes go for roads?

When the recession squeezed Miami's budget in recent years, officials reached into funds raised for road repairs and other projects to plug the shortfall.

Now, the city is paying a price. The moves triggered lawsuits and a federal investigation, in a brouhaha that holds ramifications for how municipalities nationwide maneuver around unprecedented money problems.

Cities and states across the country are using money designated for specific purposes—such as fixing roads or sewers—in order to fill financial holes elsewhere, according to public officials and records. The moves are exposing municipalities to controversy, as federal regulators and local auditors are more heavily scrutinizing their finances to protect bond buyers and taxpayers.

In Miami, the Securities and Exchange Commission is wrapping up an investigation into whether the city used funds intended for roads and other purposes to fill budget gaps elsewhere, according to people close to the probe. Bondholders are suing, saying the moves obscured the city's true finances. The city's former budget director is also suing, claiming he was fired for cooperating with the SEC and the Federal Bureau of Investigation.

The Real Effect
Readers from the beginning remember the shenanigans that the local school districts were pulling in an attempt to ~~rape~~ tax the taxpayers out of their hard earned cash. Items that needed to be budgeted were not and put to the taxpayers as some sort of "special need". Roof replacement and other usual items became the rallying point to increase the budget, not cut uneeded programs or pull back on teacher salaries and benefits. And just what was "needed"? Why everything of course. TVs, computer labs, Wi-Fi, you name it, it's ne-ce-ss-ary for the edumutation of the children!

Naturally, all of this funding had to come from someone's pocket, namely the local taxpayer and contrary to government positions, it was not a bottomless pit. So in time, a level of resistance was hit. At that point the unions engaged in demonization tactics to paint the people who paid for all of this and most importantly, their CUSTOMER as brutal heartless scum who wanted nothing more then poor people to work in their dust factories. This allowed the scam to continue for a few more years.

Well, we have reached the tipping point where so much has been consumed that there is literally NO MORE "extra" to fund, honestly, anything. So for the last 10 years government budgets have been "gimmicked" into obscurity with funds being raided, bonds being sold and rules being created that allow the game to continue. But perhaps the most crucial part of this is that the taxpayers are left holding the bag. There is a term for this....

FRAUD.

All around the world, individuals, counties, nations and now extra-national entities known as "unions" have allowed these game players to up their salaries, up their budgets and raid funds that would have otherwise been protected from their shenanigans. If you or I were financial advisers and pulled this junk, we would be in the slammer doing 20-30 years for grand theft. As we should be.

U.S. Already at War With Iran, Has Been for Decades

2011-11-11T10:30:00.000-08:00

Many of these situations are not actual peace, just less overt acts of war that the populace rarely learns about -

“Iran has irrefutable evidence that exposes the official involvement of the United States government in anti-Iran planning and the dispatching of elements to conduct acts of sabotage and terror in Iran and other regional countries,” secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Saeed Jalili said last week, promising to send evidence of “US state-sponsored terrorism” to the United Nations

“We possess one hundred pieces of irrefutable evidence that reveal the US role in directing terrorists for conducting acts of terror in Iran and the region,” Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei added.

The evidence continues...

As former CIA veteran Robert Baer explained in the documentary Vanguard: America’s Secret War With Iran, the U.S. has been at war with Iran through its terrorist proxies for years, notably the Kurdish militant nationalist group PJAK, which has been blamed for numerous attacks in Iran.

As the London Telegraph, ABC News and numerous other mainstream outlets reported back in 2007, the U.S. is also using the Al-Qaeda affiliated Sunni terrorist group Jundullah to carry out suicide bombings and other destabilization attacks in Iran, a policy crafted by the Bush administration which has been continued under Obama.

“President George W Bush has given the CIA approval to launch covert “black” operations to achieve regime change in Iran, intelligence sources have revealed. Mr Bush has signed an official document endorsing CIA plans for a propaganda and disinformation campaign intended to destabilize, and eventually topple, the theocratic rule of the mullahs,” reported Telegraph.

The Real Effect
Let's look at the history between these two countries -

1953 - Mohammad Mossadeq was overthrown in a coup named Operation Ajax organized by the CIA.
1979 - Iranian Revolution - Iranian Hostage Crisis
1980 - US attacks Iran through it's puppet state Iraq. (Which in turn was subsequently invaded in 2003) 1 million Iranians died.
1988 - USS Vincennes mistakenly shoots down an Iranian passenger jet after mistaking it for an F-14.

This is the hard part for most "conservatives" to understand. We have been attacking Iran for years and they refuse to attack back. Imagine if Iran had financed a coup against the US and then funded Mexico to openly attack our citizens that led to 1 million dead. We would rightly be outraged against their murderous activities. Yet we dislike their government and feel it's dangerous, so we reserve some sort of "right" to kill its citizens?

Yet hear we are again, funding ~~freedom fighters~~ terrorists to destabilize a legitimate government because they "might" get weapons that other nations have and because their rhetoric is too strong for our liking.

So just who is the greater menace to "world peace"?

Updated 11/17/2011 - Changed to Resource, added info.

Here Come the Bankruptcies

2011-11-10T11:00:00.000-08:00

It took some time, but mathematics is unforgiving when it comes to your checkbook -

Alabama's most populous county filed the largest municipal bankruptcy in U.S. history Wednesday, years after being plunged more than $4 billion into debt by a corruption-riddled sewer project.

Just two months after it seemed Jefferson County could stave off embarrassment by striking a deal with creditors, talks broke down over about $140 million, said Commissioner Jimmie Stephens, who made the motion to file for the protection. Since 2008, commissioners have tried to avoid the move to settle the debt, which resulted mostly from a mix of outdated sewer pipes, the lagging economy, court rulings and public corruption.

The filing does not wipe out the whole $4.1 billion, said commission president David Carrington, who wasn't certain how much the county will have to pay back. A plan would have to be worked out in bankruptcy court and approved by a judge and at least one group of creditors, Carrington said. The bankruptcy's financial burden for residents and employees likely won't be known until that plan is in place, he said.

The Real Effect
Ready for critical thinking time again?

Citizens elect representatives to represent them.
These reps might receive special training in certain areas. (Highly unlikely)
The reps decide that since they make the decisisions, you have to pay to play.
Eventually, they are busted and go to jail for bribery. (Right call)
This in part drives up the cost of the project exponentially.
The bankers that did the bribing are FREE.
Yet we are talking about "stave(ing) off embarrassment by striking a deal with creditors"?

I got your deal for you -

I, the undersigned, shall forfeit all rights, privileges, and licenses herein and herein contained, et cetera, et cetera... Fax mentis incendium gloria cultum, et cetera, et cetera... Memo bis punitor delicatum!

It's all there, black and white, clear as crystal! You stole fizzy lifting drinks! You bumped into the ceiling which now has to be washed and sterilized, so you get nothing! You lose! Good day, sir!

I'll go one better, jail the crooks and take their company away.

Restructuring of the EU Ashes Coming? Is the Phoenix Event On It's Way?

2011-11-09T10:30:00.000-08:00

The kindling is laid for the destruction of the Phoenix -

"German and French officials have discussed plans for a radical overhaul of the European Union that would involve establishing a more integrated and potentially smaller euro zone, EU sources say. French President Nicolas Sarkozy gave some flavour of his thinking during an address to students in the eastern French city of Strasbourg on Tuesday, when he said a two-speed Europe -- the euro zone moving ahead more rapidly than all 27 countries in the EU -- was the only model for the future." It gets much worse: "The discussions among senior policymakers in Paris, Berlin and Brussels go further, raising the possibility of one or more countries leaving the euro zone, while the remaining core pushes on towards deeper economic integration, including on tax and fiscal policy." Not sure how to further clarify this: Europe is preparing for its own end, and the dissolution of the existing structure of the Eurozone, which likely means an end to the EU in its current format, a reshaping of the customs union, and the overhaul of the zEURq.PK in its current form.

The Real Effect
Why is Europe burning? Because they planned to burn it in the first place! Of course this is not news to long time followers of TRE.

Aug 2011 - So, what's France and Germany's solution? Make the ponzi BIGGER!!!!

Jan 2011 - Western Europe contracts massively, putting extraordinary pressure on the Euro. But the call out of Belgium isn't about revoking the Euro, rather about the preservation of the European Union and the need to 'pull together'. I would expect that we could begin to see propaganda calling for a United Europe in the face of "x" (economic crisis, terror, war). Ultimately in the endgame, foreign creditors feel the massive pinch as they try to protect their investments...

Dec 2010 - This is going to gain steam now, Portugal and Germany are blowing out, China is finally starting to slow and Yahoo is laying off 10 - 20% of its employees.

May 2010 - I believe that we will witness a somewhat separated/isolated stage in Europe for a little while. (A month?) This will place the EU debt crisis ahead of the US debt crisis. I believe the meltdown will be fast, vicious and 'unforseen'.

Feb 2010 - The EU will make it through this in one form or another (It might cease to be called the EU but it will still be the EU.)

Sept 2008 - They will be hit by this economic downswing, but where the US will be ravaged by this downturn, the EU will "weather the storm" precisely because they are the EU. This will lead for calls to imitate them with the North American Union in order to survive. (Timeframe: 1 - 3 years)

Nov 2005 - Watch for an increase in centralization of power shifting from the United States to Brussels and the European Union, setting up the scene for the forth-coming global prince.

For a good idea of what they are planning to do, look here -

This is a game of good cop/bad cop with the current EU heads playing the part of the bad cops. Their goal is several fold:
Delegitimize any form of representative government as being 'reckless' by allowing and being subject to the will of the plebs and also inefficient/corrupt due to the massive bureaucratic nature.
Eliminate the rationale for protests and free speech as being dangerous and in line with point 1.
Slowly whittle down all effective individual liberties.
Replace those liberties with collective liberty.
Set up the rule of a monocratic rule of government with one individual effectively dictating the form of global law and worship.

Now when is a much more complicated issue. They build timetables all the time, but they discard them sometimes as quickly as they build them if it endangers the good work. 11-11-11 is very fishy (As was 888), but also blatantly obvious. Never-the-less, keep your eyes open over the next few days.

Just How Did the Boomers Get So...Wealthy?

2011-11-08T11:15:00.000-08:00

Class warfare is not my thing, but noticing trends is -

So far, today's young people aren't off to an encouraging start.

According to analysis by the Pew Research Center released Monday, younger Americans have been left behind as the oldest generation has seen wealth surge since the mid-1980s.

While it's typical for older generations to hold more wealth than younger ones who've had less time to save, the gap between the two age groups has widened rapidly.

In 1984, households headed by people age 65 and older were worth just 10 times the median net worth of households headed by people 35 and younger.

But now that gap has widened to 47-to-one, marking the largest wealth gap ever recorded between the two age groups.

The Real Effect
First thing's first. We shouldn't get too worked up about this sort of thing. After all, looking at "statistics" and trying to make things "fair" is part of how we got here. However, as we discussed in part in last year's The Prodigal Boomers, there is definitely a trend here of the Boomer generation sacrificing it's children to the fires of Molech.

Indeed, "Give it to me now!" has been the rallying cry for the last 40 years.

First, there was Free Love, a movement which sold out some of the rights of future husbands to carefree pleasure. (Result - STD explosions, AIDS and less secure nuclear families) Next we had the drug induced delirium of the 70's producing either the abortion nightmare or latch key/daycare kids of the 80s. Women abandoned child rearing in droves to 'find themselves'. (Not to mention millions of "single mothers".)

College was next as tuition became massively leveraged resulting in yearly exponential increases in college tuition. Once out of college, good paying jobs were served up as unions demanded exponential increases of pensions, benefits and seniority. Want a job? Got to get it through us first!

As the 80s came into view, the stock market became all the rage as all this money had to go somewhere. Regulations and rules began to fall by the wayside as 'retire by 65 with my nest egg' took off. Some were even so brash as to want retirement by 55. Credit expansion ruled the day as leverage expanded massively in all sectors. (Spending their future earnings today) Corporate gifts abounded as deals are cut to 'promote growth' in all sectors. 'Corporate Crime' skyrockets.

As the 90s rolled around, Free Trade became the mantra fueling massive contracts that empowered overseas slave labor which led to the Big Box Retailers. Finally, rolling in the Millennium change, house flipping and wealth extraction via HELOCs and subprime loans allowed mass scale asset stripping to rule as Boomers took over companies, housing and all real wealth assets en mass. Gone were the days of affordable housing as now new individuals in the market had to compete with the massive power base of the Boomers continually shifting the rules to favor their class.

All of this leads to the crisis of 2008. Gen X, virtually abandoned since birth had since fended for themselves realizing that the game was long since rigged by many of their parents. Jobs had since been exported overseas. Many of their parents were now not only holding their own jobs, but many of the entry level jobs that young people would traditionally take. Housing had increased massively in cost as well as the regulations that are required to open a small business leaving the unconnected among them to scrape out an existence far below that of their predecessors. True, cheap goods had benefited them in part for a time, but now the loss of employment was far outstripping the benefits of cost reductions.

At this point, the market collapses, taking millions more jobs with it. Poor Gen Y is now hopelessly outclassed and seeks the only options it knows - college. Yet unknown to them, the leverage generated by these astronomically inflated tuition is one of the few things propping up the failing market place.

Social programs are enacted that place debt burdens via taxation on this upcoming generation. When that fails to secure the ponzi level growth needed to secure system stability, new "austerity" programs are enacted to forcibly extract all wealth from Gen X and Y. Yet the Boomers insist that they paid at one point in their lives, therefore they deserve - that our pensions be funded, our Medicare be paid for, our Social Security be paid for, etc, all on the backs of the upcoming generations who pay for it via value extraction via ZIRP and QE1 and QE2. TARP is enacted to ensure that Boomers can continue to see their "value" protected on their houses.

Left without employment and little voice at the table, Gen Y marches. #OWS begins.

Irrational Israel: 'Iran has no bomb, poses no threat'

2011-11-08T11:00:00.000-08:00

Occupy Movement Comes to Paris Amid Police Violence

2011-11-07T10:30:00.000-08:00

Max Keiser Mutilates Greek Bailout Apologist: "Bring It On You Nazi Financial Terrorist!"

2011-11-04T10:30:00.000-07:00

Greece Moves Forward - Off a Cliff

2011-11-03T10:30:00.000-07:00

GPap sets the stage for the ultra-riot -

Greek PM Tells Sky News He Has Scrapped Referendum: Watch Sky Coverage Of Euro Crisis Live

The Real Effect

Where a person stands on an issue like this will tell you volumes about what they believe. If they believe that the Greeks are upset because their "gravy train" is coming to an end, they have a box of rocks between their ears. While it is true that they are upset about their benefit changes, to equate that with the reasoning behind the riots is like claiming the passengers on the Titanic were upset because they were going to get wet.

The Greeks are upset that their checkbooks are being used as a backstop for French and Italian banks. If you can't get that, there's no discussing any further.

Jericho Looks to Target Iran Again

2011-11-02T11:00:00.000-07:00

Once again Iran becomes a target as Israel becomes increasingly restless -

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is trying to rally support in his cabinet for an attack on Iran, according to government sources.

The country's defence minister Ehud Barak and the foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman are said to be among those backing a pre-emptive strike to neutralise Iran's nuclear ambitions.

But a narrow majority of ministers currently oppose the move, which could trigger a wave of regional retaliation.

The debate over possible Israeli military action has reached fever pitch in recent days with newspaper leader columns discussing the benefits and dangers of hitting Iran.

As if that's not enough, they're firing Jericho missiles too -

Israel test-fired a missile from a military base on Wednesday, two days after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned of the "direct and heavy threat" posed by Iran's nuclear program.

The noon launch near Tel Aviv, which had not been announced in advance, coincided with a week-long surge of speculation in local media that Netanyahu was working to secure cabinet consensus for an attack on Israel's arch-foe.

Netanyahu's office declined comment on the reports, which were unsourced and unconfirmed, and which some commentators suggested might be disinformation designed to jolt war-wary foreign powers into stepping up sanctions against Tehran.

The Defense Ministry described the launch from Palmachim base as the test of the propulsion system of a missile on which it declined to elaborate.

Surely the significance of the nickname Jericho, should not be lost on anyone.

UK -

Britain’s armed forces are stepping up their contingency planning for potential military action against Iran amid mounting concern over Tehran’s nuclear enrichment programme, the Guardian has learned.

The Ministry of Defence believes the US may decide to fast-forward plans for targeted missile strikes at some key Iranian facilities. British officials say that if Washington presses ahead it will seek, and receive, UK military help for any mission, despite some deep reservations within the coalition government.

In anticipation of a potential attack, British military planners are examining where best to deploy Royal Navy ships and submarines equipped with Tomahawk cruise missiles over the coming months as part of what would be an air- and sea-launched campaign.

Of course the US, has no idea why Israel is doing such things and playing the part of the good lap dog to Israel -

Fearing an uncoordinated Israeli attack against Iran, the United States is working on several levels to pressure the UN's Security Council into imposing harsher sanctions on Iran, Yedioth Ahronoth reported Monday.

A senior US State Department official said there was growing concern among Obama administration officials ahead of an IAEA report set to be published in November indicating considerable progress in Tehran's development of its military nuclear program.

The Real Effect
This is certainly sounding more and more like a done deal, but I relent in part. The neocons have been salivating over Iran as The Evil That Threatens the Whole World for the last decade plus. No matter how much devotion they try to muster, it continually proves to be the impossible nut to crack. Perhaps because the whole world recognizes that taking on Iran (and by proxy Russia and China) is sheer folly if not abject lunacy.

Undeterred at the missed opportunity at the hands of the resignation of Admiral Fox Falun in 2006 and yet another unfavorable intelligence report in 2008, the steady propagandic stream that Iran is pure ee-vil has yet to see a scenario where Iran has actually acted against the West in much of a fashion. True, there are steady reports of destabilization in various regions at the hands of Iran, some of which turned out to be pure nonsense and others hold some elements of truth. Yet how does one reconcile such reports with the fact that we have invaded every major country surrounding the Evil One and sent Spec Ops into the minor ones? (In one case almost initiating WWIII with the Russians.) Surely if Russia was staging troops in Mexico we'd be having daily conniption fits about regional stability and the like.

Yet the term sovereignty only enters the Neo-Tea Party lexicon after we've done enough to "secure" our country. (Read as steal assets from other countries to ensure another decade of Defense, Social Security and Medicare funding.) Going one step further and using our own logic against us, Iran would be justified in preemptively invading the US to stop us from invading them.

The timing on this is getting awfully close to the "dreaded" 2012 Mayan dates. Not that one should put much stock in such things, rather you should pay attention to what flag the globalists are waving. Look for continued escalation resulting in a strike that sets off the Religious War if the Israelis can get their people to look the other way. (Possible dates include the 7th - 13th of November)

Greece - Kaboooooom!

2011-11-01T10:30:00.000-07:00

Ok, so just shy of it -

Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou’s grip on power weakened before a confidence vote later this week as his decision to call a referendum on a new bailout package provoked a lawmaker rebellion.

Milena Apostolaki said she will defect from Papandreou’s socialist Pasok party. With Kerdos newspaper reporting that Eva Kaili will also abandon Pasok, Papandreou would only control 151 seats in the 300-seat chamber. Six members of the party called on the premier to resign in a joint letter, Athens News Agency said today. Ministers are due to meet this evening.

Stocks fell, the euro tumbled and Italian bonds plunged on concern that the referendum, which blindsided Greek lawmakers as well as European policy makers, will push Greece into a disorderly default if the bailout is rejected. Austerity steps imposed by creditors have sparked a wave of social unrest in the past 18 months, undermining support for the government. Papandreou won his last major vote on austerity measures by 154 votes to 144 on Oct. 20.

The Real Effect
The sky is falling....iaeeeee...look out for the molten rock!!!

As always, I am amused at the sheer predictability of all this. The cockroaches try to hide until it is mathematically impossible to hide anymore. Then they scream and yell and scurry about until they find a new place to hide. And yet, amidst all of this, we are still arguing about whether or not the cockroaches even exist! Why? Because the supposedly non-existent banksters tell them so!

Longtime readers of the blog realize that this will be another watershed moment in the EU. Like Iceland before them, the Greek people will get a vote on how their country will be run. The true test will be in whether the Eurocrats "allow" them to have their opinion after they vote. Lisbon Treaty anyone?

I think it is near impossible that a Yes vote will be achieved. In that event, look for a short spell of peace as the cockroaches try desperately to hide again.

If Greece votes down the bailout, look for all sorts of screaming by the Euro banksters as they are burned alive on the fires they started. Specifically Italy, Portugal and Spain will blow out as the speculators decimate the banks. (As well they should) More importantly, watch the Eurocrats try some end-run around the will of the people. (You see, Democracy only matters when you're voting FOR the Globalist Hydra, not against. In such cases, the will of the people is far too, unenlightened.)

Look for Europe to burn for a while (3-6 mos?) as the US gets a short lived reprieve. Except this time I believe we're going to start to see casualties. After Europe goes critical for a time, look for America to thrust itself into the spotlight again with the Supa-Committee.

Police Brutality - Handled the Way It Should Be

2011-10-28T10:30:00.000-07:00

It isn't often that I feel the need to comment on a video, but in light of the Oakland situation, this video needs to be examined by all sides.

It appears that the man running from the police is a trespasser.
The man should be criminally prosecuted for trespassing, if the property owner so desires.
The police are paid by the property owner's taxes to do a job. That job is to apprehend the alleged offender and bring him to justice, NOT execute their own justice. They don't make the rules, the people do.
The police apprehend the individual rather roughly, but some of that roughness is probably necessary.
There is no evidence visible that indicates the trespasser initiated force against the officers.
It appears the officers initiated force against the trespasser. If this is true, this is assault.
It appears the officers initiated force against the trespasser because he made them run. Again, the police don't get to make the rules, they enforce them. Running is sometimes part of the job requirement.
An individual initiates force against the officers presumably to protect the trespasser from assault.
This individual will probably face charges of assault.
Other individuals agree with the first guy and back him up. At this point, this becomes anarchy. This is not desirable for the police as they got their rear ends handed to them. Neither is this acceptable to the crowd because the same could happen to them and they have no recourse.
Mob justice is often the only recourse against a corrupt system that will pick people off one by one.
When the police abandon the law and engage in vigilante justice, they run the risk of setting off this type of situation. They alone bear the blame for this situation as they have left the populace with NO JUST RECOURSE ALTERNATIVE.
The only alternative is to hold ALL violators, including police accountable to the law. Jailing cops who take potshots at people will not embolden criminals, it will hold together the society you claim you want to protect.

Note to Oakland, NY and other police agencies. You keep pursuing this path of brutalizing protestors, you will open yourselves up to riots. When they take hold, you will NOT be able to stop them and it may cost you your life.

OWS Oakland - A Tale of Two Positions

2011-10-27T11:00:00.000-07:00

First we go to NY -

"Deeply concerned" police sergeants are coming out swinging today against obnoxious Wall Street protesters, saying they plan to "pursue legal action" against demonstrators who injure any of its members.

Ed Mullins, president of the NYPD's Sergeant’s Benevolent Association, said his group plans to pursue legal claims against Occupy Wall Street protesters should they cause injury to any of its 5,000 members.

“In light of the growing violence attendant to the 'Occupy' movements across the country, particularly as evidenced by the recent events in Oakland, I am compelled to place these so-called 'occupiers' on notice that physical assaults on police officers will not be tolerated."

"I am deeply concerned that protesters will be emboldened by the recent rash of violent acts against police officers in other cities. New York’s police officers are working around the clock as the already overburdened economy in New York is being drained by 'occupiers' who intentionally and maliciously instigate needless and violent confrontations with the police."

The Real Effect
The questions I have for the police sergeant are two-fold:

You believe your officers are citizens and are under the full protection and constraint of the law? (Incidentally, I do)
Does this status also apply to the rest of the city? Let's say veteran Scott Olsen or Sgt. Shamar Thomas? Or is this a privileged position that one enjoys being a member of the PD?

I suppose we could go even further on the line of questioning and ask the following:

How much of this is your real department policy and how much has been mandated via Homeland Security in light of exercises such as Operation Urban Warrior which was being executed in 1999, a full TWO YEARS before the events of 9/11?

Oakland Police Throw Grenade Into Crowd That Is Trying To Help Injured Protester

2011-10-26T18:00:00.000-07:00

Oakland PD Intense Standoff & Brutal Assault on Occupy Oakland

2011-10-26T16:00:00.000-07:00

Italy Gets Violent

2011-10-26T10:30:00.000-07:00

What can be said about the truth other then it provokes a nasty response -

Italian deputies exchanged blows in parliament on Wednesday as tensions over a tough economic reform program came to a head.

At least two deputies from the Northern League, a member of the ruling center-right coalition, fought with members from the opposition FLI party of speaker Gianfranco Fini. Two deputies grabbed each other by the throat as other parliamentarians rushed to separate them.

The parliamentary sitting was suspended for several minutes after the fight, which broke out because of sarcastic remarks on television by Fini alleging that the wife of League leader Umberto Bossi had retired at 39.

The Real Effect

What I will not comment on is the accuracy of their comments towards one another. What I will comment on is when you start taking pot shots at one another, the discussion is finally getting real. Much of the nastiness currently plaguing the world is like an infection. It's ugly, pervasive, a risk to the whole system and just plain ole' painful. And where pain is involved, hurt feelings and demonstrative behavior are soon to follow. Creatures don't like real fixes because in all honesty they tend to hurt. And perhaps more concerning is you don't usually hit the source of the infection immediately. Instead you have to scrape and poke and dig until you hit pay dirt. Generally at that point you find that the host has been covering it up and the infection is far, far worse then even you suspected.

Update: We get video...

Michael Maloney: "We Pay Tax for the Privilege to Have Currency"

2011-10-25T16:00:00.000-07:00

Rome Wants a World Government, Surprise, Surprise

2011-10-24T10:30:00.000-07:00

And people wonder why I don't trust the "Catholic" church very much -

The Vatican called on Monday for the establishment of a “global public authority” and a “central world bank” to rule over financial institutions that have become outdated and often ineffective in dealing fairly with crises. The document from the Vatican’s Justice and Peace department should please the “Occupy Wall Street” demonstrators and similar movements around the world who have protested against the economic downturn.

“Towards Reforming the International Financial and Monetary Systems in the Context of a Global Public Authority,” was at times very specific, calling, for example, for taxation measures on financial transactions. “The economic and financial crisis which the world is going through calls everyone, individuals and peoples, to examine in depth the principles and the cultural and moral values at the basis of social coexistence,” it said.

It condemned what it called “the idolatry of the market” as well as a “neo-liberal thinking” that it said looked exclusively at technical solutions to economic problems. “In fact, the crisis has revealed behaviours like selfishness, collective greed and hoarding of goods on a great scale,” it said, adding that world economics needed an “ethic of solidarity” among rich and poor nations.

The Real Effect
Perhaps the Vatican should pick up a few history books and see how well "Global Public Authorities" have worked over the last thousands of years. Recall my prediction from June of 2010 on the Religious Wars that I predicted which states (In part) -

For years, there has been clarion calls to "unify" under religion and while the somewhat vague calls of ending violence, war, and persecution are in themselves noble goals, mankind has demonstrated a penchant for doing the exact opposite of what he intends to do. History is replete with well meaning dictators that despite their best efforts, end up causing the very thing that were attempting to avoid in the first place through actions designed to prevent that very thing from happening.

"If only I could fix the world" is the rallying cry for many collegiate bound students and beauty pageant contestants. However, this assumes many erroneous things:

That the "world" is "broken"
That you possess sufficient knowledge to "fix" it
That others will be willing participants in said "fix"

Of particular importance is also the move away from the one solution that has truly worked, free market capitalism, and closer to the insanity that brought us tens of millions of deaths in the last century. The problem is not that there is not enough "authority" to deal with these things, rather the problem is that the duly elected "authority", and I use that term with as much sarcasm as I can potentially muster, isn't doing a damn thing about the abuse. Creating yet another layer of "authority" (I would assume appointed, not elected) would only suck more life out of an already dying system.

Crises should be an opportunity to address the effectiveness of an already existing system and make subtle and accountable changes, NOT an excuse to whip up support for your pet projects and dreams of world domination. Further, given the less then friendly words spoken of the majority of believers and the church in the book of Revelation, I'd like to see the justification for any support moving closer to fulfillment of passages which include a church drunk on the blood of the martyrs whoring around with Satan!!!

Tying It All Together (For Tom And Others On The Right)

2011-10-21T11:00:00.000-07:00

A piece by Denninger that is just far too good to pass up -

Ok, I'll be nice.
Once.
See, I'm a kinda-charitable guy, especially off-hours. Besides, there's a whole lot of "Tea Party" and other "Right of Aisle" types that really need to hear this.
I may change minds here and I may not. I ask only one thing: Read this with an open mind, then verify anything that doesn't sound right. Do not trust my figures, verify them yourself. Every source is cited.
It's July 2008. You are a "TBTF" bank CEO. You've been running a 30 year ponzi scheme using ever-increasing amounts of debt while GDP has languished in roughly the same place for the last two decades in terms of numerical growth. In the 3rd Quarter of 2007, when the S&P 500 hits 1576 and the DOW tops, the economy put about six times the amount of debt into the system as there was GDP growth, and at that point GDP had started to roll over. It had an obvious geometric progression look to it but only a few people in the blogosphere had been hollering about it. You wondered how much longer it was going to be before the people woke up.
Over the next three quarters from the 3Q 2007 GDP has actually gone negative. Debt demand has cratered and is down by almost 50%. The handwriting is on the wall; credit creation is going to go negative too.

You have tens of trillions of dollars in credit instruments on and off your balance sheet and things are looking pretty bad. You're getting pestered by people who see the credit contraction and start asking if you're good for those swaps, and the credit default swaps on your bank are blowing out. They have a point too: If credit demand actually goes negative, you're dead. You're geared at 30:1 which means you can only lose $3 out of every $100 of alleged "value" of your assets before you're broke. The collateral calls alone on the more than $30 trillion in swaps are enough to kill your capital several times over should this occur.
See, that's the nature of a pyramid. It all looks ok right up until demand starts to reverse. Then it works in reverse, just like it did on the way up. What made you $30 for every $1 of actual capital you had now loses $30 for every dollar of capital. Attempting to fire-sale assets to avoid the disaster simply tells everyone in the market you're busted and they'll pile in short, destroying your stock price and further widening the CDS. Too much of that and what you're trying to prevent will happen anyway.
Your morning includes one less coffee as you don't need any more jitters than you already have, and your evenings have an extra scotch or two before going to bed.
Then the phone rings. It's one of your Vice-Presidents; he is responsible for, among other things, your repo desk. One of your traders just came into his office and is as white as a ghost: Lehman has no collateral - they're bankrupt.
You collapse into your chair, dropping your coffee mug on the marble floor, which shatters into a hundred pieces. If your repo desk knows this so does the NY Fed, headed by Tim Geithner. That means Bernanke knows. It also means every other firm on the street knows. You look at the CDS for Lehman on your Bloomberg and shudder.
The very nightmare that has woken you almost nightly for six months has begun.
Note this well: It's July 31st 2008, or quite some time before anyone else outside of "TBTF" banks will know Lehman is about to fail. Oh sure, there have been rumors since Bear went down, but that's all they've been. Lehman's stock is trading at $17, and has been reasonably stable for a couple of weeks. It was as low as $12 two weeks previous and looked like it was headed to zero, but then stabilized and recovered by almost 50%. CNBC is chattering on a daily basis of rumors of all sorts but the market has actually been improving for a bit in tone. The VIX, which was just shy of 31 two weeks ago, is now trading at 23.
You thought maybe - just maybe - it was going to be ok.
Now you know factually that it's not.
You call your equity desk and ask them to start quietly shorting Lehman's stock. Not in size - you don't want anyone to figure out what's going on "outside" of those who already know. You figure that everyone else in the TBTF club knows this too; there's no way they couldn't. But you're cautious - while you know how much trouble you're in if credit demand doesn't turn around fast you also know that Fuld had dinner with Paulson in April - just three months ago and that there were rumors flying around that Paulson "loved" their capital raise. It didn't make sense that in just three months they had no collateral for a routine overnight repo transaction!
The rest of the world will not know, of course, for a while yet that Lehman has effectively already detonated. In fact for the entire next month the S&P 500 will actually trade up about ten points, from 1267 to 1277 in a choppy, directionless pattern.
During the next month credit demand doesn't move much.
Then "it" happens. Lehman files.
Suddenly the collateral calls begin in earnest. Credit demand takes another leg down and GDP prints negative. You're now in the hole and there's no way out. The only good news is that everyone else in the TBTF club is in there with you - hundreds of trillions of dollars of swaps, from interest rate to CDS to god-knows-what-else that was bespoke by this person or that, and they all want collateral as your credit condition is wildly deteriorating and your own CDS quote looks like the peak of Mt. Everest on the upside. Your stock price is falling like a stone and the bond desk is telling you they're getting bid lists by the dozens from people trying to liquidate to save themselves but there are no bids at any price.
In the middle of all this you get called to Treasury for a meeting. TARP has just passed and Hank and Ben want to talk with you and the rest of the TBTF CEOs. You have your assistant call the hanger and get the jet ready.
When you arrive you figure you're being nationalized. You're done and you know it. There's nowhere for you to go; there's no bid at any price for some of your assets and for those where you can get a bid the loss will wipe you out. You have CDS on some of your exposure but you're pretty sure the counterparties don't have the money -- after all, you know you can't cover everything you wrote if push comes to shove. The simple fact is that an exponential contraction of credit demand into 30:1 leverage is not survivable. You can protest all you want, but it doesn't matter; the math is going to win as the collateral calls will eventually chew up all your cash while the ratings agencies ratchet you down. With only $3 of capital behind every $100 on your book there's just no way to make the math work, the bond market is effectively shuttered with the door bricked over and trying to raise equity capital into a crashing stock market is a fools game. Even if you could get an offering off, which you can't, the interest rate on bonds would be north of 10% and the dilution on a stock offering would be hideous, never mind that you simply couldn't raise enough money going that route. The bottom line is this: There's no way to make money when you have to borrow at that price, and all banks borrow in order to lend.
When you get to DC Hank and Ben are in the room and they're smiling. You figure that the call to the board is going to end with you sending your assistant in to start boxing up your office, but when you all get there the mood is a bit different. Oh sure, your TBTF buddies all think they're dead too, but once the door closes the real intent is disclosed.

The government's going to "give" you money. It's not exactly a gift, but it's close. The mechanics of this will look like a preferred stock purchase. The reality is somewhat different. Among other things with your CDS spreads in the stratosphere you can't issue bonds without paying 10% or higher interest rates, which instantly collapses the company. But with an FDIC guarantee, which is being put on the table as part of the package, you will get the risk free rate of Treasuries, which are currently trading in the mid 3% area. That's a huge savings - 5-6% a year in interest expense! Suddenly the capital market door is open again!
Then Bernanke pipes up. Provided you do this there won't be questions about your collateral, since you'll have the implicit backstop of the government. This would go on to be worth over a trillion in direct loans; your "share" of it would wind up being nearly $100 billion, about 10% of your balance sheet, all at effectively zero interest.

You realize that what you feared - a call to announce that the regulators were seizing all of your firms as they all had no mathematical way to survive isn't what was going to happen at all! Instead, you were going to be given some $250 billion between you and the FDIC was going to take all credit risk on your new bond issues for the next year. In addition you were briefed on the TLGP which will guarantee your customers won't run your bank as it provides their demand accounts with unlimited FDIC insurance protection. This is to be "free" for the first 30 days, and after that there'd be a fee, but compared to trying to keep your deposits and issue cheap debt it was for all intents and purposes zero cost. Finally, Ben was going to let you have basically unlimited Fed credit at near-zero interest rates for the next year, meaning there would be no issue as to whether you could fund routine operations or not.
Your firm was being saved and the taxpayer was going to cover the risk - whether he liked it or not.
You were going to be asked to do a few things, however. The public would never sit for being looted like this unless it looked like it was going to hurt a lot and there was simply "no alternative." As it was Treasury and Bernanke were not sure that the public would buy it. Congress already had bought off on it, effectively; after all, Ben and Hank had corralled them into a room and threatened them with martial law if they didn't pass TARP to begin with. But it was important to make it look stringent, so there'd be no big bonuses until you paid the TARP money back and dividends would have to be cut to effectively zero.
All in you were getting a screaming deal. Not only are you getting cheap capital, all things considered (the 5% preferred coupon with that FDIC backstop when your CDS spreads are being quoted in points up front literally saves your firm!) but the FDIC insurance on both senior debt issues and deposits - that is a pure windfall of unbelievable size.
You roll the numbers around in your head. There is roughly $850 billion in deposits throughout the system that would be covered by the FDIC "unlimited" deposit insurance, and the majority of it was in your bank and that of your TBTF friends. You figure that you and your buddies in the room could issue some $300 billion in "super insured" debt through the FDIC program and the surcharge from the FDIC is only 50 to 100 basis points; with the credit condition oncoming long rates will be headed southbound fast, so the odds are you'd see a 10 year in the 2.5% or so area soon. That makes the deal damned attractive; you figure between you in the room this will easily save you $15 billion a year in the first-year financing costs (about 500 basis points on that $300 billion) or more than the coupon on the preferred stock!
It doesn't take long before the light comes on - this is a zero-cost option for you. The capital costs a coupon on the preferred but the savings on the bond issues more than make up for it and the FDIC deposit insurance makes sure nobody runs your bank.
For all intents and purposes you're being paid to take the taxpayer's money!
When you walked in the room you were sure you were going to be nationalized - or at least expropriated in some fashion, as you were dead flat broke. Now, well, let's just say that it's good to have friends in high places.
You wonder how the press is going to spin this one. This finance stuff is pretty tough for mainstream reporters; so long as nobody noodles on the numbers they probably won't figure it out. Never mind that the bonds won't all issue at once and most people will simply applaud the unlimited deposit insurance without thinking about the fact that it's essentially a gift - the 10 basis point fee (0.1%) is a bad joke. $8 billion across the entirety of the system to provide unlimited coverage on $800 billion in deposits? This much is certain: Nobody's going to be allowed to fail as that's wildly lower than the actual risk premium on that transaction.
What's not to like?
You walk out of Treasury with one of your friends from the TBTF bank down the street, yukking it up as you come down the stairs. Who would have ever thought that such a heist would be possible? Even better, the press reaction, especially from the right wing, can be counted on to get this wrong and claim that the government had stolen capitalism. That will give you cover for the fact that your firm was so far underwater when you walked into that room that you needed helium in your dive tanks lest you be narced out of your mind.
You will go on to pay record bonuses a year later, also paying back the TARP money. Well, that which everyone saw anyway. The Auto industry is a different matter of course, and there were plenty of games played with AIG, which had written a lot of credit protection. Had they blown you were dead, as they were the guarantor one way or another on far too much of your derivative stack. But Geithner will claim at every opportunity that "TARP made a profit" and the public is too obsessed with American Idol to figure out that he's lying through his teeth.
But the real problem from a budget perspective, when all is said and done, was and is in Fannie and Freddie. Although not really "TARP" funds their bailout was instrumental in preventing nearly all the 30:1 levered banks from blowing sky-high, not to mention pension funds and insurance companies, as everyone had a material amount of MBS on their balance sheets and had Fannie and Freddie defaulted it might have been enough to sink the TBTF banks all on its own and spiral the big insurers into the ground. The discounted cash flow cost of not letting them blow up through 2009 was nearly $300 billion, of which $145 billion had already gone in through direct cash infusions. This looked like "protecting the public", but it really was protecting the banks and insurers who were holding a crazy amount of MBS on their balance sheets and were able to unload them to The Fed during QE1 at a very nice profit, effectively screwing the taxpayer not only through the direct subsidy but also through the price-supported buyout in the QE program. The exact amount effectively stolen from the people in this regard is hard to determine, but it is likely close to a half-trillion dollars in total including the direct and indirect costs.
Of course it got better from there too for the banks. We now know from the Bloomberg lawsuit that there was in fact over a trillion in revolving credit doled out in the next few months to these firms, all at effectively zero interest rates since the overnight rate was for all intents and purposes zilch. This too was a benefit, as the market price of credit is never zero, and that "benefit" continues to this day. Tim Geithner, who had to know about the Lehman collateral problem in July of 08, would be rewarded for his part in all of this by being appointed Secretary of the Treasury. And Paulson? He got to keep his $500 million in Goldman stock and options when he took the original Treasury job, tax free. He has not a care in the world.
Capitalism didn't die in 2008. That's a convenient story, but it isn't true. You can't expropriate a broke man or a broke business; there's nothing to take, even if you want to.
The truth is much simpler: The taxpayer was just plain robbed by the government and banks acting together.
If you think that $750 billion was a ridiculous subsidy to the TBTFs, or that they really didn't join with the government to steal from the public during 2008, the epilogue over the next three years went from ridiculous to stupefying. From 2008 - 2010 we ran about $1,100 billion per year in additional deficits over the Bush years, for a total of $3.3 trillion. This too was sold as "for the people" but that was a lie. See, financial product credit (Z1 line Z1/Z1/LA794104005.Q) contracted from $17.1 trillion to $13.8 trillion today, or almost exactly the same $3.3 trillion. Mortgages, during the same period, would contract by about $600 billion while non-financial business credit remained pretty-much flat and State and local borrowing expanded. Put another way, the entire deficit addition over the previous multi-year baseline was literally given to the financial firms; the total amount of the taxpayer heist is over $3 trillion from 2008-2010, and as of the 2nd Quarter of 2011 we're still literally stealing from the taxpayer and handing it to the TBTF institutions via government deficit spending.

Ps: The worst part is that we didn't fix anything, especially the derivatives. In fact, with the consolidation and "swallowing" of failed firms in 08 and 09 the risks now are higher than they were three years ago, and we're further down the road with the pyramid. We stopped it from falling over temporarily, but only by shifting the debt accreation to the Federal Government and, to a lesser degree, on the backs of students. If we do not voluntarily stop the nonsense, as I pointed out in the other Ticker, it will come crashing down anyway as we squandered our opportunity to force these jackals to either cover or tear up those contracts that cannot possibly be met in full.

AVTM and UA YAL stand up to the police

2011-10-20T16:30:00.000-07:00

TSA Moves Into Tennessee

2011-10-20T11:00:00.000-07:00

Six years later, the plans that we were discussing at the time come to fruition as the VIPR hits Tennessee -

Tuesday Tennessee was first to deploy VIPR simultaneously at five weigh stations and two bus stations across the state.

Agents are recruiting truck drivers, like Rudy Gonzales, into the First Observer Highway Security Program to say something if they see something.

"Not only truck drivers, but cars, everybody should be aware of what's going on, on the road," said Gonzales.

It's all meant to urge every driver to call authorities if they see something suspicious.

"Somebody sees something somewhere and we want them to be responsible citizens, report that and let us work it through our processes to abet the concern that they had when they saw something suspicious," said Paul Armes, TSA Federal Security Director for Nashville International Airport.

The Tennessee Highway Patrol checked trucks with drug and bomb sniffing dogs during random inspections.

"The bottom line is this: if you see something suspicious say something about it," Gibbons said Tuesday.

The random inspections really aren't any more thorough normal, according to Tennessee Highway Patrol

Colonel Tracy Trott who says paying attention to details can make a difference.

Trott pointed out it was an Oklahoma state trooper who stopped Timothy McVeigh for not having a license plate after the Oklahoma City bombing in the early 1990s.

Tuesday's statewide "VIPR" operation isn't in response to any particular threat, according to officials. Armes said intelligence indicates law enforcement should focus on the highways as well as the airports.

The Real Effect
Look at that last sentence again -

...intelligence indicates law enforcement should focus on the highways as well as the airports.

Let's walk through how a lot of "intelligence" works now a days. We declare war on a country, we capture an individual that is fighting against us. That individual is designated a terrorist by virtue of the fact that he is fighting against us. We torture and threaten these individuals for months at a time until they finally "confess" something. This confession then becomes "intelligence" which is used to justify yet another incursion somewhere. (Coincidentally, a lot of this information is completely bogus.)

So what does this method bring us? Right into the place that the terrorists supposedly wanted us to go. We now have TSA in airports, football stadiums, bus stations, and insanely enough, schools.

But of course, you've known this was coming since at least 2006 -

Watch for increased surveillance cameras, biometrics and the ever-tightening noose of travel restriction. Think of the TSA but on the interstates and highways as the "officials" become more and more suspicious of "the people".

'Israelis, Saudis' behind Iran terror plot

2011-10-19T10:30:00.000-07:00

Ron Paul's Real Economic Plan

2011-10-19T04:00:00.000-07:00

This is how we fix it -

Olbermann Interviews SGT Shamar Thomas! Marine That Told U.S. Cops Stop Brutalizing Protesters

2011-10-18T16:30:00.000-07:00

War Page - Nations that the US Has Attacked

2011-10-18T02:00:00.000-07:00

Current Wars
Aggressor

Uganda
Libya (2011)
Pakistan drone attacks (2004 to present)
Iraq (2003 to present)
Afghanistan (2001 to present)

Supports Taliban

CIA/Covert actions

Mexico - Operation Fast and Furious

Possible Wars

Iran (2011)
Syria (2011)

8/17/11 - UN Ambassadors removed
8/14/11 - NATO and Turkey supporting 'rebels'

China (2012 +)

Past Wars

El Salvador (1980)
Libya (1981)
Sinai (1982)
Lebanon (1982 1983)
Egypt (1983), Grenada (1983), Honduras (1983), Chad (1983)
Persian Gulf (1984)
Libya (1986), Bolivia (1986)
Iran (1987), Persian Gulf (1987), Kuwait (1987)
Iran (1988), Honduras (1988)
Panama (1988)
Libya (1989), Panama (1989), Colombia, Bolivia, and Peru (1989), Philippines (1989),
Panama (1989-1990), Liberia (1990), Saudi Arabia (1990)
Iraq (1991), Zaire (1991)
Sierra Leone (1992), Somalia (1992)
Bosnia-Herzegovina (1993 to present), Macedonia (1993)
Haiti (1994)
Macedonia (1994)
Bosnia (1995)
Liberia (1996), Central African Republic (1996)
Albania (1997), Congo/Gabon (1997), Sierra Leon (1997), Cambodia (1997)
Iraq (1998), Guinea/Bissau (1998), Kenya/Tanzania (1998 to 1999), Afghanistan/Sudan (1998), Liberia (1998)
East Timor (1999), Serbia (1999)
Sierra Leon (2000), Yemen (2000), East Timor (2000)
Yemen (2002), Philippines (2002) , Cote d'Ivoire (2002)
Liberia (2003), Georgia/Djibouti (2003)
Haiti (2004), Georgia/Djibouti/Kenya/Ethiopia/Yemen/Eritrea War on Terror (2004),
Somalia (2007)
South Ossetia/Georgia (2008), Syria (2008)
Yemen (2009)
Haiti (2010)

And what is the true cost? $6 trillion dollars.

What's Good for the Goose...

2011-10-17T16:00:00.000-07:00

More true then it should be and fresh on the heels of our Ugandan invasion -

TRIPOLI (The Borowitz Report) Satire – As arrests mounted in the Occupy Wall Street protest in New York City, Libya’s National Transitional Council (NTC) issued a stern statement today warning the NYPD to exercise restraint.

“The Libyan transitional government regards any attempt to infringe upon the American protesters’ right to express themselves as a violation of international standards of free speech and liberty,” the Libyan statement read. “We will not sit idly by and watch this happen.”

Libyan government officials also hinted that if the arrests continue, it would consider forming a NATO coalition “to ensure the safety and security of the American people.”

While it did not state it as an explicit goal, insiders believe that if the arrests continue Libya may seek the ouster of New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg, whose whereabouts remain unknown. Perhaps in response to the Libyan statement, the U.S. State Department today responded with a statement of its own: “The United States is one hundred percent opposed to the suppression of popular uprisings as long as they aren’t happening here.”

...With Good Intentions

2011-10-14T11:00:00.000-07:00

You would think these people would learn, eventually -

It’s a question many of us ask when we go out to a restaurant. “How much should I tip?” Whether your service is good or bad, San Francisco Restaurant workers want to implement a 25% standard tip onto your bill for you. Is this fair?

Many in the food industry say “…yes, it’s about time.” However, many “foodies” are not as happy with the idea. According to an article in the San Jose Mercury News, for the most part, people, on average tip between 15% – 20% and the restaurant worker actually has to claim 15% of that to the IRS.

Oh my, that's precious. But wait, it gets better -

Not everyone is against the idea. Some have felt with the state of the nation’s economy is in, that 25% is not unreasonable.

The Real Effect
Let's think that last line through for just a second. The reasoning goes something like this -

People have less money in this Depression, so let's force them to spend more so they can have more.
<crickets chirping> Anyone??? Hellloooooo....

Brilliant. And this is what passes as "critical thinking" in today's circles. Sign me up and give me a $500k a year salary! Just think of the stimulative effect that will have!

All of these 'wonderful policies' start somewhere and this is usually where. The process goes like this:

Non-productive moron has idea about stealing someones productive money.
Moron speaks to city council, in secret.
Family on city council tries to have "family help family" and passes a law.
Patrons stop attending tipping locations.
Moron along with non-morons lose jobs.
Moron has new, EVEN BETTER idea!!!! You want to hear it?!?

Nigel Farage: United States of Europe insane politics

2011-10-13T05:00:00.000-07:00

Pakistan the next American enemy?

2011-10-12T16:00:00.000-07:00

Police "Protecting" You, Despite Your Intentions

2011-10-12T13:00:00.000-07:00

The thuggery continues -

BEVERLY (CBS) – Thieves are finding easy targets on the North Shore: Cars that aren’t locked with valuable items inside.

If your car door was unlocked, or an officer spotted your GPS, wallet, or something important in plain view, you might have found a warning on your windshield in Beverly this weekend.

Police were willing to stir-up a little proactive controversy to warn folks they were easy targets for some very busy thieves. Any car doors they found unlocked they opened up and locked themselves for the owner. They admit they did get some angry calls from drivers — who left their keys inside their unlocked cars.

The Real Effect
Of course the real egregious part of the story is the fact that they locked your doors despite you leaving them open! You can't be trusted to make decisions on your own now lest something bad happen. The absolute arrogance of that move would have me chewing some detectives ear plain off.

Once again, this is all nothing new as The Real Effect covered this back in December in Canada.