Thursday, September 30, 2010

Why Switzerland Has The Lowest Crime Rate In The World

Eureka! They Get it!

From NBC -
The village of Schaumburg bucked the national trend of raising taxes and fees to cover rising expenses when its board unanimously approved a 4.4 percent reduction to the 2010 property tax levy

You read that right: reduction.

But that's not all. Village officials also did away with vehicle sticker fees and moved to have property taxes cover garbage removal.

The tax reduction is actually part of a plan. Village big wigs promised to reverse the property tax when officials first established it last year to brace against the sagging economy. The village traditionally hasn't employed a property tax.

Now officials say revenues from hotel (up 6.2 percent) and sales (up 3 percent) taxes were large enough to cover their nut, so they don't need the property tax to make ends meet.

The proposed tax levy for 2009 was $23.7 million. In 2010 it's just $22.7 million. That means a home owner with a $250,000 home will pay about $12 less than last year. Couple that with $180 savings from the garbage fee and $20 a year for village stickers and some residents will experience a nice boost.
The Real Effect
A good start, but since they didn't need the tax before, they should eliminate the tax now to really pump up their economy. Think about it, if you want to be competitive you must lower your cost to your customer. You don't get competitive by jacking rates up, that's just idiotic.

Israel and World War III - Part 8, Act 1b: The US Response

Phase IV - The US counter attack 
  • B2 bombers from Diego Garcia using bunker busters to break up all suspected "nuclear" sites
  • Bombing runs by F-18s from aircraft carriers in the gulf
  • Attacks come from the countries of Georgia (US special forces), Afghanistan, Iraq, Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan (Mostly US forces)
    • US forces are in 11 countries - Iraq, Afghanistan, Turkey, Kuwait, Pakistan, Aszerb, Armenia, Turkmenistan, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kyrzastan
  • If Russia is not on board, the area near Azerbaijan will be critical for the U.S. to control if Russia attempts to resupply Iran in a war. Russia rolled mobile nukes into the theater in response to the Georgia's war with Russia (U.S. Spec Op)/Russian War of 888. 
  • Seize Tehran for regime change. Gain access to sea.
  • If US forces in Iran are cut off, nuclear weapons will be fired to relieve the pressure

Phase V - Russian/ Chinese response (Syrian, Lebanese, Hezbollah attacks) Where is Egypt in this?
  • If the Russians have been persuaded to look the other way then this step is ignored
    • If not things are going to spill over into Georgia - Poti
  • Iran moves to bomb route from Kuwait to Baghdad? (Resupply corridor)
There is a very strong chance that this will lead to a Russian invasion of Israel

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Engdahl on Austerity Anger: Demand To Foot the Bill For Banks' Corruption

The US Spirals the Drain, the Endgame Is In Play

Denninger runs the numbers -

Our total debt service is projected (it's not quite over!) to be 4.63% of the budget, or about $165 billion. That's approximately 7% of revenues, incidentally.

That's an effective interest rate of about 1.27%.

Yes, 1.27%.

Now what happens if we take no more debt at all but rates normalize to 5%?

That would be $672 billion, or about $500 billion more than it is today. Incidentally, that's fifty-two percent of all (personal and corporate) income taxes, up from today's thirteen percent.

Of course the CBO says we will run about $1 trillion in deficits for the next ten years. Let's presume it's five years, and we'll give it the $1 trillion, although I think that's low - maybe by 25% or more.

So let's add $5 trillion to the total, for $18.5 trillion, and apply a 5% rate to it.

That comes to $925 billion, or dangerously close to all personal income taxes, which are $1.061 trillion.

Got it folks? All personal income taxes, or if you prefer all FICA and Medicare taxes, will go only to pay interest. 
We won't get there. Before that day comes the world, which buys our debt as a "safe haven", will discern this math and cut us off. It is a certainty. Look at what happened with Greece, where literally within days short-term interest rates went to 10% - a rate that, were it to happen here, would cause The United States to blow up monetarily and politically right here and now.
Even Ambrose Evans-Pritchard sees the wall now -

I apologise to readers around the world for having defended the emergency stimulus policies of the US Federal Reserve, and for arguing like an imbecile naif that the Fed would not succumb to drug addiction, political abuse, and mad intoxicated debauchery, once it began taking its first shots of quantitative easing.

My pathetic assumption was that Ben Bernanke would deploy further QE only to stave off DEFLATION, not to create INFLATION. If the Federal Open Market Committee cannot see the difference, God help America.
The Real Effect
What individuals don't get, is that when it becomes obvious that we are screwed as a country, it's too late to do anything about it. For instance, when CNBC comes on the air and basically states 'Welcome to the American Union" do you really think that you are going to have a dollar to spend? Let me rephrase, you could have a million dollars in your hands, is anyone going to accept it?

Let us consult the whipped horse of prognostication, circa 2008 -
The long and short is they are bleeding the real assets out of the United States and passing them into foreign control. Make no mistake, they will bleed this country dry. Savings, checkings, 401K, gold, assets, they want it all and will not stop until they get it. The only companies that survive will be those that primarily serve the industrial military complex. Overnight this country will be transformed into the new prison state for the Global Order. Get food, get water, get a gun and get ready to defend yourself.
We're running on fumes folks...

Israel and World War III - Part 7, Act 1a: The Iran Play

The Theater
Front 1 - Mideast
Front 2 - Gateway to Asia/Mideast; Specifically India/Pakistan (Wikileaks documents release)
Front 3 - Asia (China, Russia) - Japan, Taiwan and South Korea will probably trade sides
Front 4 - Northern America/Central America

Objective Targets:
  • Qom (uranium enrichment facilities)
  • Natanz (Nuclear Reactor)
  • Esfahan (gas storage development)
  • Bushehr (lightwater reactor)  
  • Cities include - Tehran, Shiraz, Mashad

Phase I - Israeli attack on Iran
The big question is how - They will use the southern attack route (They upset Turkey, so unless the US is offering some sort of bribe, the northern route is out) Plus, they would need to seek U.S. authority to enter Iraqi airspace, an act that would upset the Muslims in the area and probably destabalize the region. As noted at 'The Officers' Club' is, Israel has no element of surprise so I believe the will resort to unorthodox tactics. Consider the following -
Israel, whose arms agreements with Turkey mounted to nearly $5 billion dollars over a period of years, had been training pilots in Turkey for bombing attacks on Iran. During these training missions, Israel was smuggling aircraft through Turkish airspace.
And the Stuxnet worm -
The government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has since set cyber warfare as a national priority, "up there with missile shields and preparing the homefront to withstand a future missile war", a senior source said on condition of anonymity. 
Disclosures that a sophisticated computer worm, Stuxnet, was uncovered at the Bushehr atomic reactor and may have burrowed deeper into Iran's nuclear programme prompted foreign experts to suggest the Israelis were responsible.
Phase II - US denial of involvement/political support of Israel, Hezbollah counter attacks
  • Iraq - The Eastern border with Iraq is going to split wide open
    • Cluster attack possible on Iraqi bases
    • Destabilize Iraq by flooding the region with special forces and heavy arms, the resistance to the occupation becomes stronger.
Phase III - Iranian counterattack against Israeli (Gaza)/US forces closing of gulf (Turkey, Saudi Arabia)
  • Will lead to closing of the Straits of Hormuz, 
    • Gas up to $7 -10 a gallon
    • attacks on our aircraft carriers (I'm guessing they will be placed strategically to get shot up by their new attack boats by being too close to the shores of Iran.) We will most likely lose a Nimitz aircraft carrier.
  • Barricade/Mine the Strait of Hormuz. This would be an assertion of Iranian dominance
  • Probable Iran attacks Saudi refineries in retaliation for logistical support of the Israeli plan
  • Super Sunburn Missiles longer range Shahab 3 and 4. Tor M-29 &; Tor M1 9M330, SCUD-B launchers, At one point Iran possessed possibly 100 missiles
    • Shahab-3, a variant of North Korea's No Dong missile. It can be outfitted with high explosives, nuclear devices, EMP's (Electro Magnetic Pulse), and chemical weapons
This would be a problem for the U.S. military. Why? According to Scott Ritter -
"in 1991 not a single Iraqi Scud missile was successfully interdicted by any aspect of American military action (airstrike, ground action or antiballistic missile), and in 2003 the U.S. military had mixed results against the far less capable Al-Samoud missiles. Israel was unable to prevent Hezbollah from firing large salvos of rockets into northern Israel during the summer 2006 conflict"

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Apple Fluctuations and General Market Volatility

Apple crashes hard, twice -
The flash crashes will continue until market confidence returns (this is the second one in Apple today). Who is even trading this insanity anymore? This entire market is about to break hard: any piece of bad news can topple Apple like a house of cards, and that, as we noted earlier, will take the entire market with it. Oh yes, this is supposedly the second most liquid name in the market!
The Real Effect
This demonstrates the general volatility underlying the markets at this point. When individuals and corporations are committing rampant fraud, politicians are looking the other way and Central Banks are pumping the economy like a doctor trying to bring a corpse back to life is it any surprise when common sense seems to have taken a dirt nap?

After being repeatedly correct in the month of August, we failed to anticipate the absolute insanity of the front running HFTs hell-bent on keeping the game going as they extended the ramp job into the stratosphere and proclaimed a new "bull market". Yeah right. Just remember the short term is much more volatile than the long term picture.

With consumer confidence collapsing again, the housing market in shambles, and gold making aggressive moves, the curtain isn't all that far away for many individuals as they realize the folly of their blind faith in their leaders.

Look for all sort of shenanigans as the rats become desperate to keep the ship upright, but things continue unraveling in the bond market, the dollar hits the death cross, stocks, corporate bonds, pensions and all things Americana as the people realize they've been had.

Monday, September 27, 2010

Republicans Position to Stab the Tea Party in the Back

The Republicans are up to the same old junk -
Sensing victory this fall, the Republicans have released a Pledge to America in imitation of the Contract With America that helped trigger the 1994 congressional landslide. Although Obama's unpopularity is such that a blind and flatulent wombat with a criminal record could probably win election so long as it was running as a Republican, the Republican leadership clearly wants to set the stage for claiming some sort of mandate should they take control of both the House and Senate, as appears likely. 
Since the country is messed up, do the Republicans offer a substantive difference in governance?
No. What is on offer is nothing more than a promise for even more federal micromanagement of the economy that we witnessed during the course of the Bush and Obama administrations. Only this time, they're going to do it right! "A plan to create jobs, end economic uncertainty and make America more competitive must be the first and most urgent domestic priority of our government." In other words, the Republican leadership is still clinging to the hoary old Keynesian myth that the government can somehow improve the operation of the economy through its actions. 
And although they vow to stop out-of-control spending and reduce the size of government, the fact that they already see fit to carve out "common-sense exceptions for seniors, veterans and our troops" means that virtually nothing is going to change. Reducing spending by $100 billion per year may sound significant, but only reduces the federal budget from $3.55 trillion to $3.45 trillion. Since revenues were $2.38 trillion in 2010, this promised spending reduction will still leave taxpayers facing a deficit of $1,070 billion. Republicans would have to cut spending by more than 10 times the promised amount to even begin eliminating the growth of the public debt. (Emphasis mine)
Get that? Republicans are "pledging" to cut a pittance of what Obama put in. Vox goes further and nails the problem -
The unfortunate fact is that cutting "government spending to pre-stimulus, pre-bailout levels" simply isn't enough. It won't suffice to fix the problem because it was the "pre-stimulus, pre-bailout levels" of government spending that caused the problem to occur in the first place. The depression – and it is a depression, the belated declaration of the Business Cycle Dating Committee that the recession ended more than a year ago notwithstanding – is not the result of recent bad policies, but of fundamental structural flaws with the financial system and the economy.(Emphasis mine)
The Real Effect
We addressed this issue back in January with the election of Scott Brown -
In 1994, Republicans surged into power with the Contract With America amid promises of shrinking the size of government, promoting lower taxes, greater entrepreneurial activity, tort reform and welfare reform. While one can quibble that this was achieved to a degree, the overall net effect during this time was the exact opposite. Government largess grew exponentially, myriads of wars were started, Federal departments were created and liberty was slashed to a nub. Towards the end of 2008, all that remained were entitled carcasses of what was in effect "dead" politicians.

Just like the ring of power, Republicans seized the power and then the power seized them. This is why we the Democrats were able to route the Republicans in 2008 amid "Hope and Change".

Now in 2010 we have individuals that are at best, moderates, clothing themselves in liberty dress in an attempt to garner votes. And we think this is going to change anything? Hardly.

The new Tea Party, 9/12, Turner, Hannity, Limbaugh, Petraeus, Palin, Beck, O'Reilly and Brown; these individuals are all Benedict Arnolds to the cause of liberty and will sell you down the river if the right situation arises.

Let us also not forget that the Republicans voted for war with Iran recently, (Just eight in the House voted against war) just after they proclaimed that the Iraq war was 'wrong',the Great Republican savior Scott Brown voted for "stimulus", Bush signed onto Medicare Part D, and so on...

While I agree with Vox's conclusions, I would also add that the GOP head is setting itself up for plausible deniability, if they don't aggressively handle the economic bomb in the U.S., they can pin things on Obama and his "Reign of Terror" much akin to the current administration's tendency to lay blame at the feet of Bush. I'm sure they will be all too willing at that point to implement, austerity.

After all, how could they have known, that they were in a depression? No one saw it coming...

Friday, September 24, 2010

'America Will Collapse'

America's Economic Foundation Cracks

The Washington Times looks at unemployment -
The tally of newly laid-off workers requesting unemployment benefits rose last week for the first time in five weeks as the job market remained sluggish.

Initial claims for jobless aid rose by 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 465,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. Many economists expected a flat reading or small drop.

The rise suggests that jobs remain scarce and some companies are still cutting workers amid weak economic growth. Initial claims have fallen from a recent spike above a half-million last month. But they have been stuck above 450,000 for most of this year.
and housing -
Separately, the National Association of Realtors said sales of previously occupied homes rose 7.6 percent in August from July, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.13 million. Still, it was the second-worst month for sales in more than a decade. July was the worst month for sales in 15 years, a factor unchanged by a slightly upward revision.
The Real Effect
I love how people can look at the obvious and still miss it completely. Housing is trashed and seeing as how it was in a bubble, it is not going to lead this country out of the depression. Oooops, that's right, the recession ended in June of last year. Will someone tell the people collecting these numbers that they're collecting bad data! The recession is over, therefore the numbers are supposed to be good.

But at least our credit isn't tanking. And our dollar is still strong...

Or is it possible that this has been only a slight blip up on a bigger train ride down? Sorry, but that's reality and I'm sticking to it.

Wednesday, September 22, 2010

The Brick Wall Cometh - US Starts the Negative Feedback Loop

The brick wall has been found as everywhere bad news pours in -

Today the

The Real Effect
Let's explain this simply:

The common wisdom has held that the dollar has never defaulted, therefore it won't/can't. Therefore a huge amount of foreign equity hoping to avoid overseas turmoil has plowed into the bond market, propping up US bonds and making borrowing for the Federal government easier. Like it always does, the Feds look at this through the 1-2 year goggles and assume they have good times ahead and spend, spend, spend.

Now, we stand at a crossroads -

Our dollar is diving and it is becoming conceivable that the once-great US just might not be able to float this much national debt. When this becomes obvious to all, there will be an enormous capitol flight OUT OF the dollar (bonds) and into something else, presumably precious metals. This will leave the government in the position of being unable to fund their debt at choice rates.

It as at this point that great cuts to services will be done (think healthcare/food) in order to "balance the budget." and "Restore fiscal sanity". Needless to say, many of the bureaucrats will keep their cake.

As I have stated -
However state and local governments don't have the benefit of an unlimited checkbook. Basic boil down - the consumers are broke, this is breaking the states and the Fed will back some amount of state debt. This is and will lead to a Federal debt bubble. This is the last line of defense and when this bubble breaks, all hell will break loose. The question I have is, who's head will be in the noose?

I have already explained what's going to happen, but to reiterate, now we move now from bleeding, to butchering as what's left of the US gets sliced up for the bankers.

Tuesday, September 21, 2010

9/11 - Foreknowledge

The Lone Gunmen -

Monday, September 20, 2010

Give It All to Us!

The following comes from over the pond -
Here's a way for the government to be sure it gets its due: Her Majesty's Revenue and Customs - the United Kingdom's version of the IRS - is proposing that all employers send employee paychecks to the government, which would deduct the amount it deemed appropriate and then forward it to the employee.
The Real Effect
Remember this bit?
The long and short is they are bleeding the real assets out of the United States and passing them into foreign control. Make no mistake, they will bleed this country dry. Savings, checkings, 401K, gold, assets, they want it all and will not stop until they get it.
At this point, all pretense has been formally dispensed with as you effectively become an employee of the government. Of course, they will see to it that you are paid (an adjustable percentage of) your wage in a timely (or somewhat less if "national security" demands it) manner.

Let us also remember that we tend to go the same route as our British cousins.

Give! GIVE to the gaping maw!

Ron Paul - "This Is Much Bigger Than The Great Depression!"

Thursday, September 16, 2010

Dow, Now Where Is That Brick Wall?

We pick up where we left off...
So far, we are right on target. As the market has fluctuated around the 10,000 level. If this target holds, and there is no reason to believe that it won't, we should have some major stock rumblings in very short order here.

The Dow closed up 255 points, a major move indeed and it could fulfill the ramp job I was talking about, just from a much higher position. For now, I laugh at your pathetic little jump as stocks are now massively overbought and have that much higher from which to plunge!
Stock rumblings indeed. The very morning I posted that the Dow jumped 255 points and since then has gained 558 points or a 82% retrace from the August 9th high of 10,698 on declining volume. It seems we may have already gotten our ramp job and now we are going to plunge. Even though the HFT algo market masters are desperate to not let this end, I smell death here.

California Jumps the Shark With Insane Calpers Move

From the Land of Fiscal Insanity -
California's $211 billion pension fund for public employees has been speaking with Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger's administration about providing it a $2 billion loan to help close the state government's $19 billion budget gap, a spokesman said on Wednesday.

The spokesman for the California Public Employees' Retirement System, best known as Calpers, said the talks about the loan plan, proposed by Schwarzenegger, are informal and that it is uncertain the fund can lend the money.

"We do have significant concerns about legal issues and actuarial soundness issues," the spokesman added.
 Legal issues? Gee you think?

The Real Effect
This is pure insanity. Of course the devil is in the detail so I would need to see a lot more before I could be resolute in my declaration, but I think we're pretty safe in making a few assumptions here.
  • This will not fix California's budget problems.
  • This will only delay the reckoning day.
  • I'm guessing that the security would be the partial funds in the Calpers fund itself, therefore weakening the fund even more significantly.
 Looks like they're going to get your retirement funds one way or another.

Thursday, September 09, 2010

FBI Admits No Evidence Linking Hijackers To 911

The official plot is full of a lot more holes than many would like to think - 
In an April 19 speech delivered to the Common wealth Club in San Francisco, Mueller said that the purported hijackers, in his words, 'left no paper trial.' The FBI director stated flatly: "In our investigation, we have not uncovered a single piece of paper - either here in the United States or in the treasure trove of information that has turned up in Afghanistan and elsewhere - that mentioned any aspect of the Sept. 11 plot." In describing Mueller's evidence fiasco, Los Angeles Times reporters Erich Lichtblau and Josh Meyer, whose article was reprinted in The Washington Post on April 30, note that: Law enforcement officials say that while they have been able to reconstruct the movements of the hijackers before the attacks - all legal except for a few speeding tickets - they have found no evidence of their actual plotting. The Times reporters acknowledge that Mueller's comments "offer the FBI's most comprehensive and detailed assessment to date of its investigation, remarkable as much for what investigators have not found as for what they have." The FBI director explained away the absence of evidence by making the disingenuous assertion that the hijackers used "meticulous planning, extraordinary secrecy and extensive knowledge of how America works" to conceal their scheme.
Then there's the whole issue of many of the hijackers still being alive or four of the hijackers being trained at Pensacola Naval Air Station.

On Koran Burning

Do we seriously need to address this issue? I guess in light of the Mosque story, the Shadow Religious war and other issues, looking at this would be prudent. Back in May, we examined this in part -
Keep your eyes open folks and get to the bottom of every story. These are the times in which the world's "rules" are rewritten by the victors of the upcoming war.
On these issues, what is important to understanding why things are happening is not what actually happened as much as the perception that is being created and who stands to benefit from it. For instance, let's look at Drudge's top story -
Hundreds of angry Afghans burned a U.S. flag and chanted "Death to the Christians" on Thursday to protest plans by a small American church to torch copies of the Muslim holy book on the anniversary of the Sept. 11 terror attacks.
What is not in dispute is what is happening, what is in dispute is why these things are happening. Let's listen to Gerald Celente for a moment -
“You hear someone like General Petraeus saying burning the Koran could be dangerous to American troops – hey General Petraeus – how about invading Arab countries and occupying them and killing innocent people? You think that could be dangerous to American troops? Oh no no, our foreign policy has nothing to do with this – they don’t like Americans because we go to Disneyland and shop at Walmart.”
Let's dissect for a moment:
  • The Christians have a right to burn the books and the Muslims have a right to protest.
    • They are protesting the burning AND our invasion.
  • The Muslims in Afghanistan are occupied. (Why is not important.) This is an important fact and should inform all our fact gathering actions.
    • A couple hundred Muslims are hardly representative for the entire religion which claims billions of adherents. (A claim which will probably be made)
  • This will likely color the Christians of the West's opinion of the "Jihad crazy" Muslims.
  • This creates the perception that - All of Islam wants to kill all of Christendom.
    • Any activity by the Muslims will be interpreted to support that perception.
      • See the Mosque rhetoric.
  • Considering that more people die annually from cancer than died in 911, we would do far better to leave the Muslim's lands and spend the money waging a War On Cancer. (Not that I support that.).
It is interesting that Petraeus is being positioned opposite the Muslims in this story? Is he running for President in 2012 as the rock-solid military man who will decisively deal with the 'Arab threat'?

When a national event happens, all that some Hitler leader need to do is cry 'The Jews Arabs did it.' and the country will fall in line. Do we need reminders of what happened then? Or did we mean it when we said 'Never again.'?

Wednesday, September 08, 2010

Nigel Farage shows Barroso 'true state of the Union'

States Going Belly Up Part 12 - The Endgame

Jefferson County, Alabama finds the brick wall, with their face -

An Alabama Circuit Court judge said he intends to appoint a receiver to manage Jefferson County’s insolvent sewer system, two years after the bondholders’ trustee sued to improve the system’s operation and boost fees to repay more than $3 billion of debt.

Judge Albert Johnson said in court today in Birmingham that he will interview people for the position and decide on the receiver’s authority.

Jefferson County, which includes Birmingham and has more than 600,000 residents, has struggled to avoid the biggest U.S. municipal bankruptcy after a sewer refinancing arranged in 2002 and 2003 by JPMorgan Chase & Co. collapsed during the credit crisis.

Interest rates on the county’s floating-rate bonds rose to as much as 10 percent when companies guaranteeing the debt lost their top credit ratings because of losses on unrelated mortgage-backed securities. Derivatives tied to the debt worsened the crisis by further increasing borrowing costs.

Bettye Fine Collins, the Jefferson County Commission president, said her biggest concern is that a receiver would impose an immediate increase in sewerage charges. The commission governs the county.
The Real Effect
This county has been shafted repeatedly and individuals have gone to jail for the bribes and fraud that has been committed here. Here's where we need to pay attention though, notice several things in this story -
  • The debt to the banks is assumed to be valid (As in not fraudulent)
    • Who here thinks $3 billion for a sewer system is on the up and up?
  • The judge could be bought off. (And when there is $3 billion at stake, who knows)
  • The bank could take possession of the asset. (The sewer system)
So here we have an asset, the sewer system, which taxpayers pay for through their sewer bills, being viewed as the security on a debt. What is to stop the banks from being "repaid" by taking the whole thing over and used to add to JP's bottom line?

Law? What law? The one that was discarded when fraud was being committed?

This is the reality that we are looking at as the bailed out institutions can become monopolistic entities controlling whole swaths of the American landscape. All that is needed is a few dollars on the side to get the judges to look the other way.

Irish Default Coming?

Interesting news making the rounds -
Société Générale, a market-maker for Irish sovereign bonds on behalf of the National Treasury Management Agency, has suggested Irish banks could default on a limited amount of "state-owned" debt after the government blanket guarantee expires on 29 September.
The Real Effect
Whooooah. Default? If only we could have seen that coming, like back in June -

The spiral continues as debt becomes more and more expensive to service, it becomes more and more likely there will be a default. Look for news to start spreading that the "contagion" is spreading again, taking other countries with it as the wagons circle for the inevitable global crash.
Incidentally, Denninger seems to feel that it will occur around the end of 2011 a very interesting time period that somewhat mirrors my beliefs as well. To very briefly explain what I believe is occuring in a very rough time frame I offer the following -
  • Late 2010 - American/European imbalance (Economic "awakening" as individuals begin to notice the huge elephant in the room.) This will be characterized by continued riots, protests and editorials which begin to grasp the nature of the economic reality that we are in.
  • 2011 - Depression deepens, War/Talks of war - As desperation sets in, wars break out both civilly and externally as "Peak" everything becomes the understanding. (Peak oil, water, food) The idea becomes that nationally, assets must be seized before the "other side" seizes them. This leads to...
  • 2012 - World War III - Characterized by massive death and depopulation. There is a real possibility that this will culminate in some eugenic religious war, where the Muslims and Christians duke it out to end the world of each other thereby setting up the global Phoenix-Alpha religion.

Tuesday, September 07, 2010

Israel and World War III - Part 6b, The Player's Motives

  • Adherents: The Roman Catholic Church, Orthodox, Evangelical and Protestant faiths.
  • Moral Problems - Individual and Corporate greed, lack of adherence to faith, promiscuity, rampant divorce, low birth rates, widespread torture, empire building and other issues.
  • National Players - 
    • US - Obama election year push
    • Israel, most of Europe
  • Motives
    • Invasion of sovereign countries/empire building.
    • Return of Jesus, Jewish messiah. (Dominionism is one form of this)
RE From July, 2006 -
This also extends the Bush doctrine of "If you're not with us, you're with the terrorists.", except this will be converted into a worldwide call against organized religion and eventually be specifically targeted against Judaism and Christendom.
This idea has given way to further invasions as defense is now standardly used as an excuse for offense under the phrase "preemptive war". Indeed this idea has even begun to permeate our law enforcement with such concepts as "pre-crime" .

  • Adherents - Various sects - Shiite, Sunni, Wahabi, etc.. 
  • Moral Problems - Rampant renegade sects, massive infighting, murder
  • National Players
    • Iran - Ach needs the Iranians to rally to his side, so an attack would actually help his career.
    • Syria (Russian allied)
    • Lebanon (Hezbollah - Shi'ite)
    • Gaza (Hamas is the democratically elected leaders) (A good question will be - Will Egypt want to reconquer Gaza after 43 years of Israeli domination?)
    • Iraq - (US allied)
    • Egypt - health of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, elections? Who do they view as a bigger issue - Israel or Iran?
    • Saudi Arabia (Lightly US allied)- Being squeezed by the US from the south in Yemen, to the north in Iraq. Who do they view as a bigger issue - Israel or Iran?
    • Turkey - They have a major weapons contracts with Israel, flotilla incident.
    • (Indonesia, areas of Asia)
    • Motives
      • Return of the 12th  Imam

    Please consider the following data:
    Turkish police detained about 50 military commanders Monday in a crackdown that once would have been unthinkable, accusing the suspects of planning to blow up mosques in order to trigger a military takeover and overthrow the Islamic-rooted government.

    The detention of 49 senior military officers, according to CNN-Turk television -- including members of the elite class known as "Pashas," a title of respect harking back to Ottoman times -- proved, at the very least, that such officials are no longer untouchable.

    WTC 7 Explosion

     Did NIST edit the prior footage to this?

    NYPD officer Craig Bartmer (Audio)-
    "I was real close to Building 7 when it fell down... That didn't sound like just a building falling down to me while I was running away from it. There's a lot of eyewitness testimony down there of hearing explosions. I didn't see any reason for that building to fall down the way it did -- and a lot of guys should be saying the same thing. I don't know what the fear is coming out and talking about it? I don't know -- but it's the truth."

    Monday, September 06, 2010

    Stings or False Flags - When Portraying Terror, Does It Matter?

    More "terror" in New York -
    The jury in the Bronx synagogue bomb plot case was told Wednesday that the informant who provided the four suspects with phony bombs and missiles was paid $97,000 by the FBI.

    The FBI gave Pakistani immigrant Shahed Hussain $44,000 for expenses and $53,000 for "his services" over a three-year period, agent Robert Fuller said.

    Fuller, the first prosecution witness in the trial that started Tuesday, showed the jury one of the unexploded bombs the would-be terrorists planned to use to blow up one of two Riverdale

    Defense lawyers contend that without the informant - who they say entrapped the suspects - their bumbling clients would never have tried to blow up two synagogues in Riverdale and shoot down missiles.

    James Cromitie, 44, and co-defendants David Williams, 29, Onta Williams, 34, and Laguerre Payen, 28, were caught in May 2009.

    Hussain met them at an upstate mosque, where he was sent by the feds. The trial continues today in Manhattan Federal Court. The four suspects face life in prison if convicted.
    The Real Effect
    We're so lucky that we have the FBI to pay arrest these individuals and arm disarm them. Almost every one of these headline seizing terror plots have a Federal agent lurking in the background dispensing taxpayer cash to "terrorists". Let's view the simplified terror cycle of progression -
    • A Federal agency either suspects, or drums up an inkling that their might be some "terrorists".
      • The agency has an interest in catching "terrorists" as this increases their budget and salary. A conflict of interest when it comes to being a witness.
    • In order to catch these "terrorists", the agency hires an "informant". These individuals are generally quite shady and perhaps may have been "terrorists" themselves at one point, but offered a deal to go catch more "terrorists".
      • What informant in their right mind would pass up freedom and cash to go prison? An obvious conflict of interest.
      • The more "terrorists" he catches, the more useful he is and the more pay he gets.
      • If things look sketchy, the informant can always carry out the act himself.
    • The "informant" sets up the "terrorists" by asking and sometimes outright bullying individuals into expressing interest in attacking targets.
      • The "informant" is supplied ammunition by the agency.
        • This ammo should be fraudulent, but could be real.
        •  If real, this provides a previously non-existent terror risk. The very thing the agency is supposed to be preventing.
          • If things go really wrong, you can always blame it on the "terrorists".
    • The agency catches the "terrorists" or if business is slow, the "informant".
    • The media stops the presses and proclaims the good news to the public. 
    • The public perceives there is a large real existential risk that exists.
      • They demand more protection from the agency. 
      • They pay more protection money in the form of taxes and increased security presence. (Think Homeland Security) 
      • The agency gets raises and grows. (After all, lots of "terrorists" out there.)
    • Go to step 1.
    As you can see, there are quite a few incentives for the agents, the informants, the terrorists and the businessmen behind the security to promote terror. In our example above, the informant got $97,000 from the FBI and was going to blow up synagogues, a fact that I'm sure the ADL was quick to trumpet as anti-Semitic. This creates the perception that the Muslims are out to get us, regardless of the truth.

    Video of World Trade Center 7 Released Showing Michael Hess Calling Down For Help While He is Stuck in the Building

    Michael Hess, clearly visible, is stuck in the building.  This corroborates the story they told that on the way down trying to evacuate the building, an explosion occurred inside of the building which trapped them.  The stairway, where the explosion occurred, blew out the last floors in the stairwell.  Barry Jennings gave an exclusive interview with Loose Change creator Dylan Avery where Barry stated that when he was finally found by firefighters, they stepped over dead bodies in the lobby on their way out.  After the video publicly aired, Barry Jennings mysteriously died just before the BBC aired a piece about World Trade Center Building 7...

    WTC 7 Collapse

    A building which had not been hit by any planes and had at best sporadic fires, collapsed at free-fall speeds defying not only all expectations, but the laws of physics as well.

    Friday, September 03, 2010

    Marc Faber on the State of Silver, Gold, and Commodities

    Israel and Iran Still On the Front Burner - Is War Iminent?

    Back in the beginning of August, there were several situations in the Israel/US vs Iran/Lebanon/Syria script that warranted keeping a good eye on. Indeed, just a few days ago there were some escalations.
    With Ramadan ending September 10th, a new moon Sept 8th, is it possible that we will "retaliate" 9 years after 9/11 on Sept 11, 2010? Or will we wait for October 7th? Whatever happens, time is running out for this scenario

    We have the following lengthy excerpted reports from the AOreport...
    On Monday (8/30) the Hezbollah leadership under Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah issued a “State of War Alert” to all Hezbollah militia forces. Syria is also reportedly on its highest state of alert. The alert status is reminiscent of the situation just hours prior to the start of the war in June of 1967 known more often as “The Six Day War.”
    According to various Western, U.S., Arab and Israeli intelligence reports, Hezbollah has been making final preparations for a large-scale sneak-attack against Israel. The only questions now amongst informed analysts revolve around the “when” and “where” of the expected attacks. (I love how the "debate" to whether there will be an actual attack is over. Get them before they get us!)
    Many sources out of the Mideast hypothesize that a surprise attack could come late Thursday evening or perhaps more likely on Friday, September 2, 2010. Why Friday?

    Friday is the last day of Ramadan which concludes with a festive, celebratory feast that ends the holy period of Ramadan. It is also known as “International al Qods Day” or “Jerusalem Day.” It is a day of Islamic solidarity with the Palestinian people in their quest to secure Islamic control over all of Jerusalem. This day of consecration to that endeavor was conceived originally by the leader of Iran's Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. It is part of Iran’s master plan to be the leading nation of the Islamic world.
    Such an attack would be viewed as a holy consecration to the task of retaking Jerusalem from Israel as well as destroying Israel. It would likely be viewed as the opening day of a war that Islamists would hope to conclude by the Jewish holy days of Rosh Hashanah (9/8/10) and Yom Kippur (9/18/10).
    2nd Optional Attack Date:

    The second optional time point for launching a sneak attack against Israel would be on the eve of Rosh Hashanah which begins on the evening of September 8, 2010. This date marks the end of a 62 year period since the UN declared a homeland for the Jews back in November of 1947. Some Bible prophecy watchers suggest that this coincides with the Prophet Daniel’s prediction of a 63 year period that precedes a 7 year period of Tribulation. It should be noted that from this year of Rosh Hashanah forward for three and a half years would see “signs” in the heavens – namely lunar and solar eclipses during Jewish holy days in 2014 and 2015 including Passover. Such astronomical events are perceived by some as coming fulfillments of Biblical prophecies relating to signs in the sun and the moon.

    While we find these timing hypotheses to be highly intriguing but we prefer to not make dogmatic assertions that such coming events are indeed to the “the” prophetic fulfillments of those prophecies, but we do admit to such possibilities.
    It continues...
    Indicator #1.= Israeli Troop Deployments

    First of all, there are numerous reports from within the Islamic media outlets of the Middle East claiming that Israel has deployed an additional full armored division along Israel’s northern border with Lebanon and Syria.

    Indicator #2. = Iranian – Hezbollah War Councils

    U.S., Western and Israeli intel reports note that Iranian leaders have been pressuring Hezbollah leaders to launch attacks against Israel. Various Iranian military commanders have made numerous visits to meet with Hezbollah leaders in both Lebanon and also the Syrian capital of Damascus.

    Indicator #3. = Hamas Drive-by Terror Strike

    Hamas leadership in the Gaza Strip claimed responsibility for a terror attack in the West Bank where 4 Israelis were shot dead in a drive-by shooting.

    Indicator #4. = Hezbollah Troop Movements

    All of Hezbollah’s full-time troop forces are now at forward positions along the border with Israel in violation of UN agreements.

    Indicator #5. = Hexbollah Reserve Call Up

    Hezbollah has issued a call to duty for all of its part-time troop reserves.

    Indicator #6. = Hezbollah Commando Forces Positioning

    Hezbollah has placed its entire Commando Forces into special ‘strike’ positions for:

    a. amphibious beach landings rapidly moving inland into central Israel

    b. commando rapid strike forces from the border into northern Galilee

    Indicator #6. Iranian officers activities

    The Iranian commander of its “al Qods” (Jerusalem) Brigade – foreign division for Iraq, Gaza and the Palestinian Authority has spent the last 12 days in Damascus (since 8/19)
    Along with the chief general of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps conducting War Councils with Hezbollah and Syrian officers.
    The Real Effect
    Observations -
    • Christians have a soft side when it comes to Israel. In many of their eyes, the nation of Israel can do no wrong. (This position is strongly refuted in scripture.)
    • Both sides are being played. There are well meaning individuals on either side that are compartmentalized and believe they are serving their country's interests. (After all, why take chances when you can influence and cajole?)
    • Both sides have a right to protect their respective countries. (Read as pre-emptive war is NOT on the table.)
    • Israel has been caught repeatedly provoking other countries.
    • BOTH sides are very twitchy and have the potential to spark things off. Although this does raise an interesting question. If two armies are facing off and one sneezes, is the side that sneezed responsible for the bloodshed that follows and the other side justified in any actions it takes? Contemplate that for a while.
    • If the Arabs attack during a peace conference, things are going to look horrendously bad publicly for them. I believe this is a possibility, but significantly less likely than an accidental skirmish which escalates into a war. 
    I am unsure at this point if Ramadan ends today or next week. My gut tells me next week, so I'll go with no major developments with this for now.

    The Prodigal Boomers

    Surely one of everyone's favorite parables is the The Prodigal Son. Well consider the inverse situation with the following statistics -
    Boomer Statistics
    • $400 Billion: Amount that will come out of annual U.S. consumption as thrifty boomers push savings rate from 1% to nearly 5%.
    • 47%: Boomers share of national disposable income in 2005 before the bubble burst. Boomers contributed only 7% to national savings.
    • 2.4%: Forecasted GDP growth over the next three decades as boomers ratchet back. GDP has grown 3.2% a year since 1965.
    • 69%: Portion of boomers aged 54 to 63 who are financially unprepared for retirement.
    • 78%: Boomers' share of GDP growth during the bubble years of 1995 to 2005
    Those stats are from a McKinsey study, and there is nothing remotely inflationary about boomer demographics.

    Nor is there anything inflationary about Generation X demographics. Generation X's have seen boomers blow it. By sharply curtailing spending, generation X at least has chance to right the ship before retirement. It's too late for most boomers. Time ran out.

    Now consider generation Y with 19% of the population. Think the income levels of generation Y are going to catch boomers or generation X?

    The Real Effect
    Let's consider that for a moment shall we? What can we surmise?
    • Boomers were spending a significant amount of money on things. They were good consumers. (47%: Boomers share of national disposable income in 2005) This bought things like boats, cars, vacations, fancy dinners, "investment" properties, etc. This is their right to do so.
    • Boomers are beginning to figure out they were had in a giant ponzi scheme and they're going to be broke. In order to participate in the ponzi scheme, they had to sell their children into bondage via -
      • Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Unemployment,
      • Legacy pension plans, government bulk, Educational Tenure
      • Bailout programs (SNL, 2008, FDIC, Fannie/Freddie)
      • Empire building (Myriads of wars to support cheap goods)
      • Artificially low interest rates (ZIRP is the most recent which destroys their pensions)
      • Job outsourcing for cheap consumption (NAFTA, GATT, FTAA leading to Wal-Mart)
    • Boomers have not prepared for "retirement", yet are fully expecting to retire. (Boomers contributed only 7% to national savings, 69%: Portion of boomers aged 54 to 63 who are financially unprepared for retirement.)
    • They will most likely fully expect their children, Gen X, to "take care of them". (Read as "support their lifestyle".)
    • Their children, Gen X, have been dealing with the ramifications this issue for the last 20 - 30 years and a good percentage of them plan on rewarding their parents in the manner that they themselves were treated. (Here's a cot, find a corner)
    • I don't believe the boomers have much of a clue this is coming. In response to this, Gen X is now getting into the driver's seat.
    I believe that in investigating this it will become more and more apparent that the Boomers have relied on "The System", be it in the form of Treasury Bonds, 401ks, Public Pensions, Corporate Stocks, Social Security, Housing and so on. The problem with all of these institutions, is that they are all only as good as their funding and with fraudulent rulings calling the shots, the institutions have already spent the dough in one way or another.

    What a shock this is going to be to all those who were brought up on this mentality as "The System" dumps them faster than they can say Chappaquiddick.

      Thursday, September 02, 2010


      Israel and World War III - Part 6a, The Players

      The two majors players are Islam and Christianity. There are other minor players as well, but for now we will deal with these sides.

      Side 1: Christian/Judaic -
      • The United States
      • Israel
      • The Crown Countries (Canada, Australia, New Zealand)
      • European Union (United Kingdom, Germany, France, Greece, Spain, Portugal, Sweden, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Ireland, Norway, Netherlands, Netherlands Antilles, Poland)
      • Others - Georgia, Colombia
      Side 2: Muslim/Communist -
      • Russia
      • Asia (Afghanistan, Pakistan, South Ossetia)
      • Mideast (Iraq, Iran, Syria, Lebanon, Palestinian Territories, Gaza)
      • African Union (Yemen, Niger, Ethiopia, Somalia, Mauritania, Mali, Algeria, Libya, Djibouti, Morocco, Uganda, Tunisia, Cote d'Ivoire, South Sudan, Sudan)
      • Europe (Albania)
      • Central/South America (Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Guatemala, Panama)
      Side 3: Indo-China
      • China
      • North Korea
      Swing players -
      • Asia (Ukraine, Japan, Taiwan, India, Hong Kong, Thailand, South Korea, Malaysia, Mongolia, Kyrgyzstan, Belarus, Indonesia, Singapore)
      • Mideast (Egypt, Turkey, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain)
      • Europe (Italy)
      • Central/South America (Mexico, Haiti, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Honduras, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Brazil, Peru, Bolivia, Paraguay, Chile, Argentina, Uruguay, The Falkland Islands, Philippines)
      Non players - (Holy See, Greenland, Iceland, Switzerland)

      Undecided -  Andorra, Angola, Antigua and Barbuda, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahamas, The, Bangladesh, Barbados, Belize, Benin, Bhutan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Botswana, Brunei , Bulgaria, Burkina Faso, Burma, Burundi, Cambodia, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros , Congo, Democratic Republic of the, Congo, Republic of the , Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Dominica, East Timor, El Salvador, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Estonia, Fiji,  Gabon, Gambia, The, Ghana, Grenada, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Guyana, Hungary, Jamaica, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kiribati, Kosovo, Laos, Latvia, Lesotho, Liberia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Macau, Macedonia, Madagascar, Malawi, Maldives, Malta, Marshall Islands, Mauritius, Micronesia, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Mozambique, Namibia, Nauru, Nepal, Nigeria, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Qatar, Romania, Rwanda, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Samoa , San Marino, Sao Tome and Principe, Senegal, Serbia, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Slovakia, Slovenia, Solomon Islands, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Suriname, Swaziland , Tajikistan, Tanzania, Timor-Leste, Togo, Tonga, Trinidad and Tobago, Turkmenistan, Tuvalu, Uzbekistan, Vanuatu, Vietnam, Zambia, Zimbabwe

      Note: This is not an exhaustive list and I may add more countries to the list at a later date. I will of course note that fact if I have done so. 

      12/13/2011 - Added Tunisia to Side 2.
      10/17/2011 - Added Uganda, Belarus. Updated with links to uprisings.
      2/21/2011 - Added Albania, Libya, Tunisia, C'oite de Oivre, Mauritania, Djibouti and Morocco to side 2, Bahrain, Kyrgyzstan and The Falkland Islands to the "swing players" side. 
      1/15/2013 -  Removed repeat Bolivia. Added undecided list. Added Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Ireland, Norway, Netherlands, Netherlands Antilles, Poland to Side 1.Added Cote d'Ivoire to Side 2. Hong Kong, Indonesia, Kuwait, Philippines, Singapore, South Sudan, Sudan to swing players and Holy See to non-players.

        Wednesday, September 01, 2010

        Is The Fed Bad for U.S. Economy? - Judge Napolitano VS Gasparino

        States Going Belly Up Part 11 - Running Out of Gas

        California swirls the drain some more –
        City officials in Half Moon Bay say the municipal budget is such a mess that it may make sense to disincorporate and turn the place over to San Mateo County.

        And the myopic Unionists lead the way -
        A side note: unions have revived legislation in Sacramento that seeks to prevent cash-strapped cities from declaring bankruptcy (Municipalities would have to get permission from a labor-dominated commission first). The consequence of that legislation, were it to pass, might well be to promote more disincorporations -- that is, the shutting down of cities -- since bankruptcy would be all but off the table.
        Perhaps they should start charging fees for people to exercise their rights, oh wait...

        ...desperate for cash, Albany began enforcing a little known clause in its sales tax code that calls for a tax on sliced bagels or whole bagels consumed at the place of purchase, according to The Wall Street Journal.

        When an audit found New York chain Bruegger's Bagel in violation of this often unenforced clause, the state demanded owner Kenneth Greene cough up a "significant" amount in taxes to cover what the state figured he owed, according to the Journal.

        Florida -

        The city of Miami is so broke it's forcing employees to take pay cuts, even though they're under contract. Mayor Tomas Regalado said he's never seen a financial mess like this before, and his options are grim.

        “It's either that or we layoff 1,000 employees or we raise taxes to the max, and we're not raising taxes to the max,” the mayor said.
        The Real Effect
        You can kick, you can scream, but you can't drain blood from a stone and if you kill the golden goose, soon you will be out of eggs. Just where do these people think this money is going to come from? Our cutting edge High School science washouts? The Public Unions are shooting themselves in the head here as they flat out refuse to see the camel in the tent here. The public is in a depression, they make half the money you do and do far more work in far less time. Protectionist strategies only delay the inevitable and make the fall that much worse.

        The public may be a tad slow, but they're getting out of 401k Dodge while they can and everyone is starting to notice that everyone else is heading for the exits. The only thing left is the panic as everyone realizes everybody has aces up their sleeve.


        Continuing the review of the Dow prediction from August 11th-
        Watch for the Dow to crash through support levels at 10,636 then 10,366 before it meets some resistance at 10,098 with a slight bounce around mid-September. Then all hell breaks loose as it violently crashes through any support that is offered realizing 300-1000 point drops as it rejoins the downward trend in October before finally meeting firm resistance at 9686. When that resistance finally gives way, say around November, look for increased panic as assets are sold off left and right to meet the dread margin calls as foolish investors get scalped.
        On the 24th, we looked further -
        Now that we have our 140 point haircut (134 points today to close at 10,040), There is a real strong chance that the Dow will give up enough to get to our projected low of 9686. However, we run smack dab into two problems -
        • The psychological barrier of 10,000
        • The previous low of 9686.
        In order to get to 9686 we need to realize a 350 point drop from Tuesday's level. That is quite a dip. But I think it's important to realize that there’s not a whole lot propping up the current price level.

        So we have several scenarios that are possible:
        1. The market gives it all up in one massive shot. Say down to 9620 by losing 350 points in one or perhaps two sessions. Given the way the market kept bumping into the 10,098 as though it were a ceiling (red line on the chart above) lends credence to this thought.
        2. The market takes it's time and gives it up slowly over the course of the next few weeks.
        The latter scenario has been the action plan of choice over the last year, but the trend is towards the former scenario. I'm going to play it safe and go with scenario 2.

        More importantly, once that barrier is breached, (say by early-September) I fully expect there to be a massive ramp job from 9620 bringing us way back up to around 10,200. (A 600 point gain and in line with the predictions I made earlier. I would think this could sow some massive confusion as the Dow darts back and forth between 10,000 several times.
        The Real Effect
        So far, we are right on target. As the market has fluctuated around the 10,000 level. If this target holds, and there is no reason to believe that it won't, we should have some major stock rumblings in very short order here.

        Update - 
        The Dow closed up 255 points, a major move indeed and it could fulfill the ramp job I was talking about, just from a much higher position. For now, I laugh at your pathetic little jump as stocks are now massively overbought and have that much higher from which to plunge!