Monday, January 31, 2011

News Analysis-Egypt Uprising-01-29-2011- (Part 1)

Breaking Wind a Crime? A Free Man Driving - A Comparison of Two Ethos

For your consideration, the law that would make an inescapable human function a crime -

Breaking wind is set to be made a crime in an African country.

The government of Malawi plan to punish persistent offenders 'who foul the air' in a bid to 'mould responsible and disciplined citizens.'

The crime will be enforceable in a new 'Local Court' system which will also have powers to punish a range of other crimes in the bill set to be debated in the country's parliament.
 A crime eh? A crime... Just because a given action is desirable should not dictate that the antithesis is a crime. Yet this is exactly what passes for thinking in today's day and age. You cannot legislate perfect people, the National Socialists tried this and look where that got them.

Now, let's take the opposite end of the equation from Georgia -
A state lawmaker from Marietta is sponsoring a bill that seeks to do away with Georgia driver's licenses.State Rep. Bobby Franklin, R-Marietta, has filed House Bill 7, calling it the "Right to Travel Act."In his bill, Franklin states, "Free people have a common law and constitutional right to travel on the roads and highways that are provided by their government for that purpose. Licensing of drivers cannot be required of free people, because taking on the restrictions of a license requires the surrender of an inalienable right."Franklin told CBS Atlanta News that driver's licenses are a throw back to oppressive times. “Agents of the state demanding your papers," he said. "We’re getting that way here.”

The concepts of "papers please" and freedom are mutually exclusive. At this point we are merely negotiating the level of tyranny we would endure. The article continues with the expected "blood in the streets" talk that is expected out of those that have yet to examine the issue, in truth -
CBS Atlanta's Rebekka Schramm asked Franklin, “How are we going to keep up with who’s who and who’s on the roads and who’s not supposed to be on the roads?”“That’s a great question," Franklin said. "And I would have to answer that with a question, ‘Why do you need to know who’s who?’”“What about 12-14-year-olds who want to drive? What would stop them?" Schramm asked.“Well, what’s stopping them now anyway?” Franklin answered
Right on again. The law merely provides a tool, to prosecute those who have violated the law. They do NOT prevent individuals from committing these acts, it only provides an incentive not to commit them. An incentive that individuals have to voluntarily submit to.

The law in Malawi will not stop people from warming the environment, it will merely allow for the prosecution of those who do around others. Ergo, it will not achieve what the lawmakers intend it to.

The situation in Georgia would permit a greater degree of freedom and since less resources would be spent on compliance and waste, so by definition more resources would be available for production thereby making its inhabitants wealthier.

This is the key to pulling this country out of this Depression!

Friday, January 28, 2011

IMF Riots take Hold

With Iceland, Greece, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia and other countries going before them Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan, Syria, Yemen, Albania and Egypt take a stab at rioting -
The Egyptian dissident Mohamed ElBaradei warned President Hosni Mubarak today that his regime is on its last legs, as tens of thousands of people prepared to take to the streets for a fourth day of anti-government protests.

The Nobel peace prize winner's comments to the Guardian represented his strongest intervention against the country's authoritarian government since he announced his intention to return to Egypt to join the protests. "I'm sending a message to the Guardian and to the world that Egypt is being isolated by a regime on its last legs," he said.

His words marked an escalation of the language he used on arrival in Cairo last night, when he merely urged the Mubarak government to "listen to the people" and not to use violence.
The Real Effect

Of course, how far behind is Japan or the United States for that matter? If the Suez Canal gets shut down, commodity costs, especially oil will probably explode as the vital shipping channel stops traffic.

As I stated back in May of 2010 -
There is a fundamental change in the way the middle-class and below of the world view the world. An "enlightenment" if you will. Here is the crux of the problem though. The globalists understood that the sheep would wake up, in fact they anticipated and planned for it by naming it the IMF riot. The relevant question is, who can outflank who here? Will the people get to the globalists before they are able to pull the trigger on the full police state?
In the Religious War Series, I outlined the sides that would start moving. Notice the following countries listed -
Side 2: Muslim/Communist -
  • Russia
  • Asia (Afghanistan, Pakistan, South Ossetia)
  • Mideast (Iraq, Iran, Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, Gaza)
  • African Union (Yemen, Niger, Ethiopia, Somalia, Mauritania, Mali, Algeria)
Side 3: Indo-China
  • China
  • North Korea
    The Muslims are sure getting whipped into a frenzy. Gee, I wonder who's doing the driving? I expect that it will emerge that the U.S. is behind this via some alphabet soup agency. It appears that side 2 and 3 are getting goaded, one of the questions becomes when is side 1 (The Christians) going to receive the same treatment?

    I believe that is being positioned for possibly late 2011, probably mid-to late 2012. (As stated in 2011 predictions)
    With much of the fallout from "The Currency War" devastating the global economies, the action leaves the banks and hits the courts eventually ending on the battlefield. (More towards 2012)
    • Worldwide, America is blamed for the global economic fallout.  (CDS, MBS securities)
      • This stokes anti-American/liberty resentment which will find a place to mature later.
    • A world war by the end of 2012
    Look for continued unrest with some governments getting overthrown. But as I indicated earlier, the globalists are literally banking on this to occur. We are still not there yet though. More riots need to take place, some shots, some new faces and then, we go to war.

    Wow, that certainly didn't take long. The Telegraph is reporting the following -
    The American Embassy in Cairo helped a young dissident attend a US-sponsored summit for activists in New York, while working to keep his identity secret from Egyptian state police.

    On his return to Cairo in December 2008, the activist told US diplomats that an alliance of opposition groups had drawn up a plan to overthrow President Hosni Mubarak and install a democratic government in 2011.
    Show of hands, who thinks that the Arabs will like that we're actively messing around in their countries? Anyone, anyone?!?

    Wednesday, January 26, 2011

    People Begin Living Without Electricity and Water in California

    Government Moves to Ban Just About Everything

    Our noble leaders, upon surmising the giant hole that is the budget, look to us, the peons to fill that hole -
    After targeting distracted drivers, some New York lawmakers want to go after distracted walkers. They are looking to ban them from using iPods, music players and cell phones while walking and crossing the street.
    Oh no, distracted walkers! The humanity!!! Cue the sob story about some ignoramus that got killed - 
    At E.A.T. restaurant on Madison Avenue they still haven’t gotten over the death of co-worker Jason King, killed last month when a truck hit him as he crossed the street while listening to his iPod. 
    Jason was just 21 and his death and along with other accidents involving people using electronic gadgets while walking is why Brooklyn Sen. Karl Kruger is looking to ban things like cell phones and iPods for pedestrians crossing the street.
    “We have people who are literally dying in the street,” Kruger said.
    (What about natural selection?)

    The Real Effect
    This insanity will stop when We the People want it to stop. We must elect legislators that will NOT do the following:
    1. Legislate to fill the coffers.
    2. Legislate to pacify a powerful base. Generally for re-election.
    3. Grandstand to create a legacy for themselves.
    Instead we need more of the following.
    1. Individuals that will remove the obstacles to our liberty and economic prosperity.
    2. That will tell these self-righteous bases that want special rights for their groups to shut their pie-holes.
    3. Less crimes, less crimes, less crimes. 
    Think about it. Then if your tempted to squawk, shut your pie-hole and think some more.

    Tuesday, January 25, 2011

    Watch Housing Bubble Insanity Set To Cool Jazz

    Police, Respect Your Oaths, Protect the People

    As we enter deeper and deeper into the chaos side of Ordo Ab Chao, I present the following group of articles to explain the rough game plan of what is happening at this time. First we examine the so-called "War on Cops" -
    In just 24 hours, at least 11 cops were shot around the country.

    The most recent incident at a fugitive's house in St. Petersburg, Fla., left two officers dead and a U.S. marshal wounded Monday. Hours earlier, an Oregon officer was critically wounded after being shot multiple times during a traffic stop. 
     "It's not a fluke," Richard Roberts, a spokesman for the International Union of Police Associations, told "There's a perception among officers in the field that there’s a war on cops going on."
    What the police need to realize here, is that it is not a war on any one specific sub-group, but as the abortion statistics, police violence and ongoing wars will attest there is a war going on against all humanity. Further segregating yourselves as some sort of special overlord class will not help your case as Vox and Denninger have both pointed out.

    Perhaps an example will illustrate -
    Chris Drew, a Chicago artist, was arrested in December of 2009 for selling art on the streets without a peddler’s license and for recording his encounter with the police. He faces 15 years in prison because he didn’t get permission from the cops. Drew used an audio recorder during his arrest and now faces eavesdropping charges, a class 1 felony.

    “That’s one step below attempted murder,” he told the Chicago News Cooperative.
    For videotaping an encounter with a police officer, 15 years in the slammer, and a felony?! Good luck trying to get a gun after that, or a job for that matter. Police, you're behavior is backing the populace into the corner. You claim to have surveillance rights over us, you even go so far as to assert assassination rights, yet the same standard applied to you yields a "War on Cops". Nice.

    But we're not done yet, because cops, I know you're being goaded. It's your job to resist that pressure before the next phase enters the picture -
    Environmentalists are promoting a new historical hero in the fight against global warming, none other than Mongol warlord Genghis Khan, with the Carnegie Institution touting the emperor’s green credentials because his empire slaughtered no less than 40 million people – an act that helped lower carbon emissions and keep the planet cool.

    “We found that during the short events such as the Black Death and the Ming Dynasty collapse, the forest re-growth wasn’t enough to overcome the emissions from decaying material in the soil,” explained Julia Pongratz, who headed the Carnegie Institution research project. “But during the longer-lasting ones like the Mongol invasion… there was enough time for the forests to re-grow and absorb significant amounts of carbon.”

    Using the “knowledge we have gained from the past” in studying the positive impact of Khan’s role in slaughtering 40 million people in cold blood, Pongratz says the research will be utilized to “make land-use decisions that will diminish our impact on climate and the carbon cycle.”

    “We cannot ignore the knowledge we have gained,” she added, clearly entertaining the arcane and barbaric notion that massive programs of bloody depopulation should have any place in 21st century thinking.
    There is no need to spell this out. History is replete with this sort of data and anyone with half a brain and a search engine can figure out how this story ends.

    Friday, January 21, 2011

    Thursday, January 20, 2011

    Sean Hannity - Tax The Arabs "We have every right to go in there and frankly take all their Oil."

    Hannity reveals his contempt for sovereignty and American's supposed 'right' to oil -

    Year End Review Part 2

    Without further delay, part 2 -

    401K Collapse
    Real Effect -
    Banks will start to claim ownership of 401k and pension funds (private and public) and begin "looting" them. (Read as taking your cash and continue to "invest" as they double-double down) and the government moves to “protect” them by seizing them. I would assume they would be placed in a new 'secure conservatorship'.
    Evidence -
    • Banks will start to claim ownership of 401k
    • and pension funds (private 
    • and public) Achieved in Review I

    While it is possible to make an argument that on paper the institutions are not seizing assets outright, they are defacto taking control of these assets via their insolvency. However, to argue that they have been seized completely is another matter entirely. 

    Points (2 of 3)

    Annuities Collapse
    Real Effect -
    Annuities will begin to default and the state insurance funds will become a backer of last resort, which will bankrupt many of them. Many if not most insurance companies will go belly up. This will cause the rates at the surviving institutions to go through the roof.
    Evidence - 
    Nope, big miss on this one.

    Points (0 of 1)

    Municipalities Collapse
    Real Effect - Unfortunately, I didn't specify much beyond the title.

    Evidence - Achieved in Review I

    Points (1 of 1)

    Real Effect -
    As companies take these blows, the FDIC will frantically try to raise capital to cover the losses but will eventually be unable to cover and the first wave of defaults will take place.
    Evidence - 
    Boy this is a tough one to call. The FDIC did raise a lot of capital this year, yet the losses slowed down somewhat. What did happen was QE. Alas, we will rate this 0.

    Points (0 of 1)

    Bond Market Collapse
    Real Effect -
    Within the next 2 years, the United States will default on their debt for the first time in their history. This will cause not only domestic, but major international geopolitical issues as well.
    Evidence - I would argue that the US is in a state of technical default seeing as the only way to sell their debt is through the Federal Reserve and POMO manipulation.

    Points (1 of 2 - Pending 1)

    Tax Protests
    Real Effect -
    If the institutions don't have to pay their bills, why should I? This could get very ugly.
    Receipts will plummet and to cover governments will begin the implementation of new taxes, most notably a VAT AND a National Sales Tax in one name/form or another.

    There will begin a reduction and repeal of some Social Programs - most notably Medicare, Social Security and reductions in food stamps.
    Evidence -
    Achieved in Review I

    Points (3 of 3)

    Dollar Collapse
    Real Effect
    This will be the pivotal event that if it occurs, will destroy much of the wealth that the people of this nation possesses.
    Evidence -

    The story of October was the massive currency wars waged, with China and Russia taking aggressive stances to dump the dollar. To hold that it has collapsed would be premature, but it is possible to argue that it is collapsing. Half point.

    Points (.5 of 1 - Pending 1)

    Total Points for Part 2:  ( 7.5 of 12 with 1.5 outstanding - 63%)

    Total Points for Parts 1 & 2:  ( 12.5 of 18 with 6 outstanding - 70%) 

    Impressions -
    Wow, 2010 was a hard year to call. It was akin to trying to guess exactly when a teetering object will fall off a ledge when there is an independent entity intervening at random points. Indeed, it could be argued that some of the biggest stories of 2010 were the interventions of the Fed not only into the stock, but also the bond markets as well. 

    While the interventions made calling the top difficult, they only further ensured a larger drop to the bottom when its time comes.

    Wednesday, January 19, 2011

    Texas Lawmakers Faced With $27 Billion Budget Shortfall

    Jim Rogers: Easy to Blame the Chinese for America's Problems

    On Gun Control and Violence

    Ron Paul -
    The terrible violence in Arizona last weekend prompted much national discussion on many issues. All Americans are united in their sympathies for the victims and their families. All wonder what could motivate such a horrible act. However, some have attempted to use this tragedy to discredit philosophical adversaries or score political points. This sort of opportunism is simply despicable.

    Since police cannot be everywhere all of the time, a large part of our personal safety depends on our ability to defend ourselves.

    We are fortunate to live in a society where violence is universally denounced. Not one public official or commentator has attempted to justify this reprehensible act, yet the newspapers, internet, and airwaves are full of people trying to claim it was somehow motivated by someone else’s political rhetoric. Most disturbing are the calls to use government power to censor certain forms of speech, and even outlaw certain types of criticism of public officials. This was the completely apolitical act of a violent and disturbed man. How sad that the attempted murder of the Congresswoman who had just read the First Amendment on the House floor would be used in efforts to chill free speech! Perhaps some would feel safer if the Alien and Sedition Acts were reinstated.

    Also troubling are the renewed calls for stricter gun control laws, and for government to “do something” to somehow prevent similar incidents in the future. This always seems to be the knee jerk reaction to any crime committed with a gun. Nonsensical proposals to outlaw guns around federal officials and install bulletproof barriers in the congressional gallery only reinforce the growing perception that politicians view their own lives as far more important than the lives of ordinary citizens. Politicians and a complicit media have conditioned many citizens to view government as our protector, leading to more demands for government action whenever tragedies occur. But this impulse is at odds with the best American traditions of self-reliance and individualism, and it also leads to bad laws and the loss of liberty.

    Remember – liberty only has meaning if we still believe in it when terrible things happen and more government security is demanded. Government cannot make us safe by mandating security any more than it can make us prosperous by decreeing an end to poverty.

    We need to reaffirm the core American value of individual responsibility. Consider the young man who had the courage to tackle the shooter and prevent further carnage because he himself had a concealed weapon. Without that gun, he could have been yet another sitting duck. When peaceful citizens are armed, they at least have a chance against armed criminals.

    Advocates of gun control would urge us to leave our safety to law enforcement, but eyewitness reports indicate it took police as much as 20 minutes to arrive on the scene that day! Since police cannot be everywhere all of the time, a large part of our personal safety depends on our ability to defend ourselves.

    Our constitutional right to bear arms does not create a society without risks of violent crime, and neither would the strictest gun control laws. Guns and violence are a fact of life. The question is whether it is preferable to be defenseless while waiting for the police, or to have the option to arm yourself. We certainly know criminals prefer the former.

    Tuesday, January 18, 2011

    Bankruptcy of U.S. is ‘Mathematical Certainty'

    Detroit to Shutter Its Schools?

    I love to argue with individuals which claim there is no consequences to obscene levels of government spending -
    Detroit Public Schools would close nearly half of its schools in the next two years, and increase high school class sizes to 62 by the following year, under a deficit-reduction plan filed with the state.

    The plan, part of a monthly update Emergency Financial Manager Robert Bobb gives the Department of Education, was filed late Monday to provide insight into Bobb's progress in his attempt to slash a $327 million deficit in the district to zero over the next several years. Under it, the district would slim down from 142 schools now to 72 during 2012-13.

    Bobb has said school closures, bigger classes and other measures would be needed if he cannot get help from lawmakers to restructure finances in the state's largest school district.

    DPS considered but declined to file for bankruptcy in 2009. In the past year, debt in the district has increased by more than $100 million, brought on by a mix of revenue declines in property taxes, reduced state aid, declining enrollment and an unplanned staffing surge this past fall.
    Wow, that's pretty brutal. Think the unions have learned their lessons yet? Nope...
    Keith Johnson, president of the teachers union, said the proposed class size increases won't work and will never happen.

    "I will never agree to any class-size increases," Johnson said. "These increases are antithetical to learning. Secondly, our classrooms aren't even built to accommodate those numbers.
    Oh, but wait there's more.
    District officials said they are pursuing "renaissance" legislation to free up $400 million in future tobacco settlement funds that could help mend DPS' deficit and those of 40 other districts statewide. In return, the districts would make dramatic reforms based on the federal Race to the Top initiative, such as eliminating teacher seniority.

    The Real Effect
    Notice the gimmicks and games going on here? Detroit is looking at bankruptcy and even has an Emergency Financial Manager and yet the attitude of 'No concessions, it's for the children!' prevails? They are even going so far as to look at raiding special funds in order to plug the holes. Who doesn't think this will ultimately end up in even more draconian legislation outlawing more behaviors (of course with a huge financial penalty involved) in the name of safety?

    This is why socialism, fascism and ultimately tyranny repeatedly fail. Despite their insistence to the contrary, these systems have no reliable method by which they can gauge the effectiveness or viability of a given system without systematically destroying innovation. Given, you can push, prod and cajole for a time, but inevitably the system finds a way around it. Eventually, the state will criminalize this behavior as well.

    All you municipalities around the country, take notice now. This level of austerity IS coming to your area, Detroit is just years ahead of the rest of us.

    You want to fix it? Implement the following:
    • Eliminate egregious taxation such as
      • Property Tax
      • Income Tax
    • Seize unowned/abandoned land and hold an auction to give it to the cheapest local bidder
    • Eliminate the interfering bureaucracy (Health codes, land use, registrations, etc...)
    • Ensure the courts are giving priority to cases of civil rights and property law. All other misc. cases such as 'traffic violations' unless violating the previous rights should be summarily dismissed.
    An area that does this will become a bastion of freedom first and a beacon of economic prosperity later.

    Monday, January 17, 2011

    Gate Promotes Mandatory Vaccines for All?

    I always love how the innovative individuals of yesteryear become the fascist supporters of today -

    “The key thing, the most important fact that people should know and make sure other people know: As you save children under 5, that is the thing that reduces population growth,” he said. “That sounds paradoxical. The fact is that within a decade of improving health outcomes, parents decide to have less children.”

    The number of children who die before their fifth birthday has already dropped from 20 million in 1960 to 8.5 million today, a statistic Gates attributes mostly to vaccination.

    “About one-third [of that improvement] is by increasing income,” Gates said. “The majority has been through vaccines. Vaccines will be the key. If you could register every birth on a cell phone — get fingerprints, get a location — then you could [set up] systems to make sure the immunizations happen.”

    Gates suggested using cell phones to record each birth and send the information, including biometric identifiers, to a central database. This database would then send reminders to parents’ phones when it was time to come in for vaccines or other treatments. He said a prime location to implement such programs would be northern Nigeria or northern India, where vaccination rates are less than 50 percent.
    The Real Effect
    So, we are to believe several things if we listen to Gates:
    1. Population growth is an inherently bad thing.
    2. Vaccination is saving children. (Despite a virtual void of evidence indicating this point)
    3. Therefore the answer to the problem is to probably force consumers to get not only his technology but his health care solutions as well?
    Uh, no sir. The answer is to allow the individual consumer to make these choices, not foist up oligarchical/aristocratic control mechanisms. Has the current economic plight demonstrated in say, Detroit, taught you nothing?

    Thursday, January 13, 2011

    Question To President Obama

    Housing Values and the "D" Word

    Like I said from the beginning, Depression (houses too)-
    In the past few years, we’ve all been careful to choose our words carefully, not calling it a recession until it fit the technical definition and avoiding any inappropriate use of the “D” word — Depression.

    Things were bad but the broader economy never reached Depression territory. The housing market, on the other hand, just crossed that threshold.

    Home values have fallen 26 percent since their peak in June 2006, worse than the 25.9-percent decline seen during the Depression years between 1928 and 1933, Zillow reported.

    November marked the 53rd consecutive month (4 ½ years) that home values have fallen.

    What’s worse, it’s not over yet: Home values are expected to continue to slide as inventories pile up, and likely won't recover until the job market improves.
    The Real Effect
    I love how CNBC is trying to say that house prices won't recover until the job market improves. While able to be correlated, what is needed is price discovery. We need to know where the bottom is and the more that we try to prop up prices, the more we encourage speculation in one market or another.

    The Feds cannot sustain an artificially high housing price forever, at some point, they will fall. And fall hard. This will not be good for everyone, but it will be bad for those who primarily encouraged this artificiality. In other words, it will be bad for the people that caused the problem in the first place.

    This will end bad lending practices, crazy leveraging, and encourage a return to a stable economy.

    Wednesday, January 12, 2011

    Nigel Farage: Euro Empire Collapsing, Bailout River Dry

    Record Labels, Banks and Situational Ethics

    What an interesting day it is -
    The major record labels are known for their harsh stance on copyright infringements, which in an ironic turn of events is now costing them millions of dollars. Revealing a double standard when it comes to ‘piracy’, Warner Music, Sony BMG Music, EMI Music and Universal Music now have to pay Canadian artists $45 Million for the illegal use of thousands of tracks on compilation CDs.

    Over the years the labels have made a habit of using songs from a wide variety of artists for compilation CDs without securing the rights. They simply use the recording and make note of it on “pending list” so they can deal with it later. This has been going on since the 1980s and since then the list of unpaid tracks (or copyright infringements) has grown to 300,000 in Canada alone.

    This questionable practice has been the subject of an interesting Canadian class action lawsuit which was started in 2008. A group of artists and composers who grew tired of waiting endlessly for their money filed a lawsuit against four major labels connected to the CRIA, the local equivalent of the RIAA.

    Warner Music, Sony BMG Music, EMI Music and Universal Music were sued for the illegal use of thousands of tracks and risked paying damages of up to $6 billion. Today the news broke that the two parties have agreed upon a settlement, where the record labels are required to pay $45 million to settle the copyright infringement claims.
    The Real Effect
    Ah, now this gets to the heart of the matter doesn't it?

    Today we are subjected to many labels that are often less based on law and more based on fiat displays of raw power. Terms like "democracy", "freedom", "pirate" and "free" are bandied about without little thought to the power behind these terms and ideas.

    In this instance, we have an empowered group of individuals with nothing more than pure power bullying segments of the population into personal serfdom for a sole act of copying. Yet, when these same entities are confronted on the logical extension of their personal position, their response is 'It's different.' Why different? Who knows.

    This illustrates the growing aristocratic class that is granting itself titles of nobility in this country. For instance - If you don't pay your mortgage, you lose your house. If the bank doesn't pay theirs, they get to pay a small fee and keep the property, sometimes even if they never even owned it in the first place. If you go to a casino, blow all your money, I'm guessing you won't be getting a bailout. And if you break into someones car, I highly doubt you'll be exonerated as keeping the peace. (Let's not even get into the insanity of the right to be free from guns law.)

    No, this country exists under the pretense that there is equal justice under the law. First and foremost the natural law, followed by the Supreme Law, the Constitution. It is high time that we get it into our thick skulls that the solution to these 'problems' is equal standing before the law and not special laws that 'deal' with situations.

    Monday, January 10, 2011

    Stock Market Plunge Sparks Violent Protests in Bangladesh

    Assassinations and Liberty

    In my writing in May, I encouraged individuals to do their due diligence on that what they witness.
    Keep your eyes open folks and get to the bottom of every story. These are the times in which the world's "rules" are rewritten by the victors of the upcoming war.
    At this point, I am highly discouraged, but not surprised by what I am seeing emerge from the fallout over the Arizona Congressional shooting.

    For starters, Rep. Boehner, the newly elected Majority Speaker made the outrageous statement that "an attack on one who serves is an attack on all who serve." Class warfare? Seriously Mr. Boehner, do you believe this statement to be true? If so, what is to be made of the myriads of Americans that are brutally slaughtered by the police every year for committing the crime of being in the wrong place at the wrong time? Would you tolerate the People, rising up against your power base in like fashion simply because one individual did something reprehensible? Surely I would pray that this would not be the case.

    Pima County, Ariz., Sheriff Clarence Dupnik is blaming talk radio and TV, the left is blaming the Tea Party, the Right is blaming the socialists and the Southern Poverty Law Center is blaming Ayn Rand and David Icke?
    No, the paradigm that is being fronted in all of these cases and now targeted by potential legislation is that IDEAS are to blame. That somehow, the people mustn't engage in thought-crime unless they carry the title of Representative. Or fly on a plane. What a foolish thought.

    The only entity that is to blame in any way is the individual that committed the crime, one Jared Loughner. He alone bears this responsibility for acting on his beliefs and he alone should share in its legal consequences. If further actors are uncovered, then they should likewise join him in his fate.

    If we are to believe in the rule of law again in this country, something that is becoming a distant possibility, we must believe that the laws that govern its people are just, not irrational power grabs built on emotional house of cards.

    We as freedom loving individuals must unequivocally condemn these senseless acts of violence that depreciate the value of a human life fashioned in the Almighty's image. But in doing so, we also must condemn the reactionary violence carried out in our name by those who claim to represent us against so-called terror threats. Are our lives more precious then theirs? Are we any less culpable by association in this country then they are?

    The answer is not to bite on the bait that we are being presented. We must not be deceived into a false "us vs. them" paradigm that will only end in tears. This country once existed as a beacon of personal freedom and liberty and if it is to survive, it must once again return there.

     (Written 1/10/2011, Published 2/10/2011)

    Friday, January 07, 2011

    Bank of America Takes a Shot to the Head

    The ruling is in and it spells trouble for the financial system -
    The banks tried to get constructive assignment (e.g. assignment by contract, even though the PSAs said otherwise - that actual assignment and delivery had to take place) recognized by the judge, and failed to produce evidence of actual assignment (because there wasn't any - the notes were originally endorsed in blank and there was no evidence of actual physical delivery to the trustee.)  The Judge said no.  That's what I was talking about earlier in this case - this has been the pattern and practice in these securitized loans, and the ASF and others in the industry have argued that despite language in the PSAs that required physical delivery they didn't have actually perform in that fashion to have a factually and legally-good transfer
    The Real Effect
    As Denninger has been repeatedly pointing out, there is State law about how you can conduct your business. The banks violated that law, lied about it, and committed fraud.

    This is going to get ugly as now everyone who lost something in 2008 is going to be out for their pound of flesh. There's pretty much only one of two ways this can end:
    1. The bankruptcy of most if not all of the institutions that participated in this via the hands of their investors. (This is the preferred method)
    2. Some sort of legal rangling involving bailouts, law changes or nationalization of these institutions. (3808 anyone?)
    Look for Republicans to get on the wrong side of this argument as they try to get between the people and the bankers.

    Thursday, January 06, 2011

    A Sign of the Times - Fashion Bug and Dockside Home Decor Shutdown in Port Richey

    Economic Showdown, Round 1

    Reuters speaks to the insanity that will be coming our way -
    The United States could hit the legal limit on its ability to borrow as soon as March 31 and faces serious consequences unless Congress acts by then to raise it, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said on Thursday.

    "Even a short-term or limited default would have catastrophic economic consequences that would last for decades," Geithner said in a letter to U.S. Senate Majority leader Harry Reid that was issued by Treasury.

    Geithner said it was hard to pin down exactly when the current $14.3 trillion ceiling on the debt limit would be pierced but urged Congress to act before the end of the first quarter.

    "The Treasury department now estimates that the debt limit will be reached as early as March 31, 2011, and most likely between that date and May 16, 2011," he wrote.

    He said Treasury could engage in extraordinary measures, such as suspending sales of state and local government securities, but preferred not to because it is disruptive.

    He warned that failure by Congress to raise the debt limit, which would effectively put the United States into default on its obligations for the first time in its history, would have consequences "potentially much more harmful than the effects of the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009."
    The Real Effect
    Eh, I'm a little ahead of the curve as usual, but this will definitely be a huge issue coming up. What is the most interesting is how the different people are being publicly positioned. Note the following:
    • Anyone for raising the debt ceiling is being portrayed as being responsible. (This is akin to an unemployed man being responsible if he secures a new credit card when he's already defaulting on his previous cards.) Most Democrats and some Republicans.
    • Anyone talking about cutting some spending is seen as either responsible or insane depending on the side doing the observing. (Akin to the same man not buying a 65" plasma TV, but perhaps a 50" instead.) Some Republicans and some Tea Party.
    • Anyone discussing actually balancing the spending with debt and even going so far as to suggest massively cutting spending programs are regarded as insane and perhaps even responsible for the calamities that follow. (Akin to the man blaming the decline of his credit card as being the reason as to why he's in such a mess.) Very few Tea Party members.
    The pain is coming, very soon. What will be telling is who blames who for the fallout. I believe the Democrats will blame Bush and the new Republicans for being crazy. (Laughable) Republicans will blame Obama. (Equally laughable seeing as how the "crisis" started before Obama took over). Of course those foolish Tea Party members are getting to the party just in time to get thrown under the bus, or drive it right off the cliff.

    Time to check your undies, we're headed towards an accident.

    Wednesday, January 05, 2011

    Cop Shoots Family Dog! Family Sues Cop!

    Blackbirds, Fish and Shrill Screams of Armageddon - Alpha Religion Hides in the Shadows

    There is little mystery behind the fact that some people see the end of the world behind every corner -

    Texas -
    A large number of dead birds spotted on the Hwy 155 bridge near Ore City is most likely a natural occurrence in the area.

    According to Texas Parks and Wildlife Department's Media Communication Director, Tom Harvey, it is not uncommon to see dozens of dead birds on this bridge, including the American Coots here.
    The interesting thing though is that it doesn't end there - Florida, Manitoba, Canada, Argentina, Louisianna, Arkansas.

    The Real Effect
    Disturbing? Definitely. However, this issue is being spun already into all sorts of hysterical mumbo-jumbo. Surely it needs to be examined, but more important issues include -
    • What damage has been done to the ecosystem in the Gulf because of the BP oil spill and the subsequent clean-up efforts?
    • Does HAARP play a role in this?
    • What role does geo-modification play in this?

    Perhaps this piece on PrisonPlanet will clear things up a bit more.

    Yes, I do think all of this has something to do with the 'end times' but not for the reasons that everyone assumes. My working theory at this point is that ultimately all religions must be demonized in order that 'saner minds may prevail'. In this fashion, a new religion can be fashioned out of the remnants of the old religions, globalism and human reason that we shall tentatively call the Alpha religion.

    Saturday, January 01, 2011

    2011 Predictions

    In what has become a mainstay here at the Real Effect, I strive to offer my readers with an excellent view of what is coming down the current events pipe by offering cutting-edge and usually provocative predictions.

    Let us look at the past successes -
    • 2010 (1,2,3) - After a three year absence, the predictions returned with a stunning 95% accuracy in part I, part II will be along shortly.
    • 2007 - 2009 - Due to time constraints on research, the predictions became distributed throughout the year, peppered inside various articles. I leave the collection of those predictions to the reader for the time being.
    • 2006 - The first incarnation of the annual predictions saw an accuracy rating of 69% and stunning prognostication of the following major events:
      • Housing market collapse
      • Democratic Congressional takeover
      • Iran war targeting (Resulting in the resignation of Fox Fallun)
      • China and North Korea identified as potential threats
      • Oil/Gasoline price explosion
      • Religious demonizing and marginalization
      • Israeli Ariel Sharon's health issues

    However, we here at The Real Effect are not in the business of rehashing the past, which is a matter best left to other parties. Presently we shall stick to our strength of making future predictions. So it is without further adieu I present the 2011 predictions! (Keep in mind, that all of this is barring what has become commonly called a WTSHTF scenario.)

    • Europe detonates, especially in the east -
      • Eastern Europe sinks to crisis level with reports of food shortages, rioting and widespread Depression.
        • Hungary (10 Yr 8.02%) may be the first to go.
      • Western Europe contracts massively, putting extraordinary pressure on the Euro. But the call out of Belgium isn't about revoking the Euro, rather about the preservation of the European Union and the need to 'pull together'. I would expect that we could begin to see propaganda calling for a United Europe in the face of "x" (economic crisis, terror, war). Ultimately in the endgame, foreign creditors feel the massive pinch as they try to protect their investments, but the lack of a favorable response by the people will lead to war with the far east, but not yet.
        • Bonds play an absolutely critical role with the European Financial Stability Facility taking center stage.The days of "free money" are coming to an end.
          • Germany  (10 Yr 2.958%)- Notice how they refused to implement stimulus and now they are recovering? Yet in order to achieve a United Europe that involves Germany bailing out everyone else. This will probably lead to massive protests by the Germans over forced foreign austerity.
          • Greece (Bonds - 12.01%) Still in a world of hurt
          • Ireland (10 Yr 9.058%) was once the economic jewel of Europe, but recently Moody's slashed their rating by five levels. (How does that EU bureaucracy taste, eh?)
          • Portugal (10 Yr 6.682%) - Dying on the vine, they will need foreign intervention.
          • Italy (10 Yr 4.8%)
          • Spain (10 Yr 5.453%), France (10 Yr 3.32%) and Belgium
    • United States
      • No recovery. The public is aware, but the media begins to be aware that all of the so-called recovery talk was nothing more than statistical nonsense.
      • Consumer spending hits a wall and continues to decline moderately.
        • Almost all classes are spending significantly more on food at home. (Sales at fast foods down?) Esp The poor (below $19,301)
        • Housing costs have gone up significantly for the poor.
        • Health insurance costs are exploding for all classes, esp middle - rich.
        • Education costs have gone up for all but the poor. Unemployed students will build the coming revolution. (What else do they have to do?)
      • The country faces the worst Christmas in at least 25 years. It is very possible that this not be immediately realized because of nominal reporting but the devil is hidden in the details like margin compression, something Karl Denninger has been adamant about for quite some time.
        • As this plays out throughout the first quarter, this kills off many struggling chains or at a bare minimum, (barring "bailouts") sets the stage for later Corporate Death.
      • Massive Unemployment U-3 goes to 11%, U-6 to 18.5%  (Yes, I know I'm asking for it)

      • The Employment rate continues to plunge

        • Millions more people fall off the unemployment rosters.
    • Actual Inflation is rampant and MASSIVE (+10-20%)
      • Commodities - MASSIVE increases in cost
        • Oil becomes a political issue again (Due to being dollar driven) It will easily top $100 a barrel and probably aim for $150 again. (In line with last year's prediction that it will become an issue again later.) Yet people are using far less oil.
        • Gold - $1800 - $2000, Silver - $40 - 60
          • Expect a massive rally in the first quarter of 2011, cooling off for the summer and then another strong rally at the back half of the year.
          • Silver becomes especially difficult to physically source as the Comex cracks and demand goes up. (Perhaps hitting $40 in Q1, then cooling down until winter)
        • Cotton - Clothing becomes expensive. This will eat away at many "cheap" clothing alternatives like Wal-Mart and Target.
        • Food becomes more expensive, shortages continue.
        • Denninger -
          The lowest quintile - the poorest Americans - are spending 23% more on food, 8% more on housing, and 9% more on health insurance.

          What's worse, they're not spending less on food away from home.

          This is the key. They're not shifting spending (as you can see in the above table) they are being forced to spend more even as their income decreases.
    • Local governments collapse
    • State governments stagger
      • Deficits swell as many budgets were predicated upon the "summer of recovery" which turns out to be less of a recovery and more of a flat-line.
    • Federal government surges nominally. While appearing to die, the federal government starts consuming everything in a dire attempt to stay solvent. (Sink or swim mentality)
      • Currently the budget deficit is $202 Trillion (Including unfunded liabilities)
      • Pensions are gradually shifted to state/Federal funds.
      • Bond rates collapse further
      • FDIC is still insolvent and its line of credit at the Treasury Dept. legally runs out
      • Food stamp rates will continue to soar.
    • Foreclosure-gate rocks the world
      • Housing prices decline nominally by at least 5% (As Vox Day points out this is the amount of the 2009 tax credit) more likely 10% and perhaps it gets as bad as 20%.
        • Please note that previous bubbles do not lead the way of the next economic expansion.
      • H.R. 3808 is resurrected by the Republicans and signed into law. (This will be seen as bipartisanship)
      • Individuals and companies attempt to protect their capitol by investing in anything that is inflation proof.
        • Minor to moderate bank runs
    • Stocks sell off nominally, finally.
      •  Many of these institutions are holding a certain "value" on their books with regards to housing prices. If these values start plummeting, the banks will either be forced to seek another bailout or get crushed.
      • The markets were propped up by MASSIVE injections of liquidity in POMOs and QE 1 and QE2.
      • HFT (High Frequency Trading) becomes a mainstream term due to increasing exposure to the concept by the mainstream media. (Adobe)  

    With much of the fallout from "The Currency War" devastating the global economies, the action leaves the banks and hits the courts eventually ending on the battlefield. (More towards 2012)
    • Worldwide, America is blamed for the global economic fallout.  (CDS, MBS securities)
      • This stokes anti-American/liberty resentment which will find a place to mature later.
    • A world war by the end of 2012 (See the Religious War Series for details) 
    • North Korea/South Korea trade volleys, but do NOT go to war. I don't believe this particular feud is at a fever pitch quite yet.
    Having swept into power in 2010, the American populace's stomach for shenanigans is limited and the parties know it.
    • The neoconservative version of the Tea Party takes its seats and promptly sells/blows out.
      • To be sure there will be plenty of grandstanding about "austerity", but sacred cows like defense spending, corporate welfare and education will be supported by the NeoTeas.
      • Critical legislation and opportunities (Like an End the Fed bill) are torpedoed by the appropriate sides.
      • I will go so far as to say that a major 'patriot' will betray the movement.
    • January - A lot of rhetoric, but not a lot of results. Talks by Republicans will resume of obstructionism and "dirty politics" by Obama.
    • Presidential Race heats up - May?
      • The third party "change" meme becomes more palatable, but not yet as frustrations lead to a party that will eventually become the Global Party
      • The cry will go out that 'In this hour, we cannot afford to be divided.'
    After a massive downturn over the last 5 years, the remnants of much of the "religious right" get fed up with the left's "societal engineering".  This leads to the following -
    • Nationalistic denominationalism - The Christians return to the forefront with a vengeance as the Glenn Beck rally/Palin crowd embrace "Americana" nationalism and go after the infidels. 
      • The "founder's intent"/"What this country was founded on" ends up fueling a nationalistic religious fervor that seeks to incarcerate and make war anyone who doesn't see their light.
    But the rub lies in the fact that the left and the right are destined to destroy one another and lead to a new left/right party.

    • Worldly obsession with 'otherworldly' entities picks up steam but does not reach critical mass. Such items will include:
      • Aliens/Project Bluebeam
      • Angel/Demon gates
    • In reaction to rampant criminality, virtues become fashionable/marketable again.
    • Crime increases - The desperate lower class sees the upper class as the reason for their suffering. Except the middle class will be their target, not the bankers.
    As Obamacare takes hold, in order to make the "system" solvent, the Government moves to do the following:
    • The licensing and eventual banning of vitamins and nutritional supplements. (Competition is a sin)
    • Healthcare shortages are realized as workers retire early en-masse in order to avoid being part of the system. Doctors especially become more scarce as new recruits refuse to enter the field.
      • A black market for health care becomes viable.

    I've also decided to link to Vox and Karl's 2011 predictions for the reader's benefit. While they share many similarities, I can assure the reader that I have been writing these for at least 3 months now. (As the blog articles will attest.)

    (Note: In my haste to get some of these out by the first of January, I might have left off some links or inadequately explained some of the  predictions. I reserve the right to edit some of the information until January 7th, 2011)