Thursday, May 06, 2010

Market Seizure, Europe Enters the Storm

The financial storm hits with full force -
Greece’s fiscal crisis took a new turn to violence Wednesday when three people died in a firebomb attack amid a paralyzing national strike, while governments from Spain to the U.S. took steps to prevent the widening financial damage from hitting their own economies.

US markets are getting killed and overseas they're getting slaughtered. Wait, the market just took a headshot with the Dow down 8%! Gold is over 1200.

To make matters worse, the 'contagion' has already spread beyond Greece. Primarily the UK is the recipient at this moment as reports indicate it's budget deficit will hit 12% of it's GDP.

The Real Effect
Looks like 2008 all over again. Told you so.

I believe that we will witness a somewhat separated/isolated stage in Europe for a little while. (A month?) This will place the EU debt crisis ahead of the US debt crisis. I believe the meltdown will be fast, vicious and 'unforseen'.

Vox has a great article up on Capital Controls in the EU which may help to illuminate some of this position a bit more.

Like a cat this market has nine lives, the question is, which one are we on?

Wednesday, May 05, 2010

Times Square Bomber Thoughts

McCain proves he's a hack when discussing the bomber -
"Don't give this guy his Miranda rights until we find out what it's all about," McCain added during an appearance on the Imus show, which is broadcast by the Fox Business Network.

McCain's remarks echo Republican complaints in the aftermath of the attempted bombing of a flight en route from Amsterdam to Detroit on Christmas Day, when Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, the suspect in that case, was immediately Mirandized and given full criminal rights.

Republicans say that suspects like Abdulmutallab and potentially Shahzad should be classified as an "enemy combatant," which gives authorities more leeway in seeking intelligence through interrogation and other methods.
 So which is torture? Interrogation or "other methods".
McCain said Shahzad's apprehension "gives you a little encouragement about the improvements we've made since 9/11."
Improvements? What would those be McCain? As if that's not enough, there's this story out of New York -
New York officials say they could stop attacks like the attempted Times Square car bomb by expanding a controversial surveillance system so sensitive that it will pick up even suspicious behavior.

But Saturday's failed terrorist bomb in the Times Square tourist hot spot has provided the authorities with a new argument for expanding a sometimes controversial security blanket of cameras, sensors and analytical software.

The system "will greatly enhance our ability and the ability of the police to detect suspicious activity in real time, and disrupt possible attacks," Mayor Michael Bloomberg said Monday.
 The Real Effect

Has anyone else here noticed that there is a direct correlation between the nature of the police's response to an attack and the relation of the timing of the attack?

For instance, if the police are talking about future attacks, their "tools" are insufficient and they cannot be held responsible for anything because they are ill prepared.

Yet if they receive these tools and an attack does occur, they are not responsible because there is a bigger, "better" system out there somewhere that  could have stopped the attack, but woe is them, if they only had it. Sadly it reminds me of our educational system and the whole stinking problem.




Throwing money alone at problems never fixes a thing and many times it makes the situation worse. This cycle is by no means even started yet as all sorts of idiots from all across the world will "declare war" on policy (just as dumb as the war on terror) and use idiotic tactics to make a non-salient point.

Did I mention that this covers government as well as "civilians"?

Keiser Report meets Schiff Report

Tuesday, May 04, 2010

Depression Reminders

The Market Ticker takes us for a stroll down memory lane, circa 1931 -
"Financial storm definitely passed." - Bernard Baruch, cablegram to Winston Churchill, November 15, 1929
"I see nothing in the present situation that is either menacing or warrants pessimism... I have every confidence that there will be a revival of activity in the spring, and that during this coming year the country will make steady progress." - Andrew W. Mellon, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury December 31, 1929
"I am convinced that through these measures we have reestablished confidence." - Herbert Hoover, December 1929
"[1930 will be] a splendid employment year." - U.S. Dept. of Labor, New Year's Forecast, December 1929
"For the immediate future, at least, the outlook (stocks) is bright." - Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in Economics, in early 1930
"...there are indications that the severest phase of the recession is over..." - Harvard Economic Society (HES) Jan 18, 1930
"There is nothing in the situation to be disturbed about." - Secretary of the Treasury Andrew Mellon, Feb 1930
"The spring of 1930 marks the end of a period of grave concern...American business is steadily coming back to a normal level of prosperity." - Julius Barnes, head of Hoover's National Business Survey Conference, Mar 16, 1930
"... the outlook continues favorable..." - HES Mar 29, 1930
"... the outlook is favorable..." - HES Apr 19, 1930
"While the crash only took place six months ago, I am convinced we have now passed through the worst -- and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly recover. There has been no significant bank or industrial failure. That danger, too, is safely behind us." - Herbert Hoover, President of the United States, May 1, 1930
"...by May or June the spring recovery forecast in our letters of last December and November should clearly be apparent..." - HES May 17, 1930
"Gentleman, you have come sixty days too late. The depression is over." - Herbert Hoover, responding to a delegation requesting a public works program to help speed the recovery, June 1930
"... irregular and conflicting movements of business should soon give way to a sustained recovery..." - HES June 28, 1930
"... the present depression has about spent its force..." - HES, Aug 30, 1930
"We are now near the end of the declining phase of the depression." - HES Nov 15, 1930
Then there was this little "event" in 1931.
Creditanstalt.

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Euro Economy Blows Out

Like wildfire, the debt destruction spreads -
A fierce global equities sell-off was sparked on Tuesday after ratings agency Standard & Poor's cut Greek debt to junk status, while a downgrade to Portugal also stoked concerns about a widening eurozone crisis. As the European Union announced that it would hold an emergency summit on Greece, the Frankfurt stock market plummeted 1.93 percent and Paris plunged 2.16 percent in late morning deals. London fell 0.98 percent, one day after suffering its biggest one-day loss since November. Lisbon tumbled 5.56 percent and Madrid fell by 2.72 percent, while Athens was down 1.69 percent after massive losses in recent days.
Spain has now been downgraded to AA and finally, the bailout total is more in line with 100 billion euros. Just for Greece.


The Real Effect
Here's what I see so far --- Greece is kind of like Lehman Brothers. Not big, but big enough to cause a LOT of damage. The key date that the European Central Bank (ECB) has to get this done by is May 19th. That's when Greece's bonds are due.

The money would be coming from Germany, but the German and Greek people want NOTHING to do with a bailout. If Greece blows out, it'll blow out Spain, the U.K., Portugal. Each one of those, in turn will blow out more countries.

If Greece doesn't blow out, the pressure will be on to bail out Portugal who will just become the next, bigger Greece. In June, California has bonds due and they're in the same boat. There's a world of hurt coming fast. I think they can prop it up a bit longer perhaps 3-6 months? But every time they do, they make the end result that much more devastating, EXPONENTIALLY.

Look out for the shell game at this point. This is where the "leaders", who caused the mess by the way, give you your solution by stating the only thing that will save us is TOTAL GLOBAL POWER.
"Only a sustainable global economy can continue to guarantee growing wealth without jeopardizing the chance for future generations to meet their own needs." And how do we sustain it? Why, by having the developed world issue half a trillion in debt each and every month.
But to achieve their goal, they need to first be UNSUCCESSFUL with their bureaucratic efforts. It only works if you bring in a global despot as the world savior, much like Adolph was to Germany in the 30's.

A global Hitler you say? No way, it could
neeeever happen.

Arizona SB1070: "Small Riot Breaks Out at Immigration Protest"

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Greek Toast Anyone?

S&P wakes up and slashes Greece's credit rating, to junk -
Standard & Poor's said Tuesday it cut Greece's ratings to junk status. The ratings agency lowered the long-term sovereign credit rating on Greece to BB+ from BBB+. The outlook is negative. "The downgrade results from our updated assessment of the political, economic, and budgetary challenges that the Greek government faces in its efforts to put the public debt burden onto a sustained downward trajectory," said Marko Mrsnik, an S&P credit analyst, in a statement.
In addition, Portugal's got cut by two as well.

This seems to have resulted in a massive sell off in the markets: Greek stocks are down 7%, PMI is getting thrashed right now, other losers include Citigroup, Ford. The Shanghai Composite is down 2.1%, FTSE is down 2.6%, gold is surging, China is in the same boat everyone else is and trying to stimulate as well.

Long and short, no pun intended, every time the market moves in volume, it plunges, bad. This means that there is little more than duct tape and Ben Bernake's pleasant dreams propping up the stock market.

The Real Effect
Overall, the problem is, the Greeks don't want "help". But bankers don't exactly take no for an answer, especially when they can take control of your country doing it. Think Iceland.

I believe that this is similar to what happened in Jun - Sept of 2008, there will be tons of rumblings, some casualties, but the real plunge will happen later. The elite seem to want to patch things together to hold it up for just a bit longer.

In addition, a key indicator has been displayed for hints on the US bond meltdown. Namely, the politicians are blaming the "greedy" bankers for wrecking their rates by shorting them. Watch for this to continue to intensify as politicians realize their hides are on the line here.

Monday, April 26, 2010

Greece Going Critical

Greece is in a world of hurt right now -
Moody's Investors Service has taken the following rating actions on covered bonds issued by Greek banks:

- Mortgage covered bonds issued by National Bank of Greece S.A. ("NBG"): Downgraded to Aa2 and placed on review for further downgrade; previously on 31 March 2010 downgraded to Aa1;

- Mortgage covered bonds issued by Alpha Bank S.A. ("Alpha"): Aa2 placed on review for possible downgrade; Previously on 31 March 2010 downgraded to Aa2;

- Mortgage covered bonds issued by EFG Eurobank Ergasias S.A. ("EFG Eurobank"): Aa2 placed on review for possible downgrade; previously on 31 March 2010 confirmed at Aa2.
And defaults are starting to take place -
Payments of amounts owed to health service providers [6 billion euros of debt], public sector construction [1.2 billion], ICT [200 million] and media-advertising [100 million] have ceased, according to Kathimerini.
The Real Effect
Notice how everyone is starting to end up in the same boat, broke? Notice how the semi-not broke countries (at least as of now) are getting sucked into the drain right along with the bad ones? (Portugal, Spain)

Still think "globalism" and "free trade" are good ideas?

Still think spending 50% of your income on "government services" is a good idea?

Starting to see some parallels between the "socialistic" countries of the 1950s-1990s and our own?

Perhaps now would be a good time to investigate what liberty really is. Or perhaps you'd rather wait until the World War breaks out?

Bet Against The American Dream

Bet Against The American Dream from Planet Money on Vimeo.

Saturday, April 24, 2010

Week End 4/24/2010

Economy
Iceland: (9.5) - Earthquakes are shaking the big volcano, could blow
Greece: (9.5) - Bonds are exploding, needs even more aid, but Europeans have a right to a vacation, debt downgraded, asking for the bailout
U.K.: (9.5) - No flights for you, unemployment hits high
U.S.: (9.5 + 0.5) - Goldman is effecting everything, is not credible, Citibank accounts for most of the market volume, dollar is sinking despite safety flight from Euro, durable goods down significantly
Portugal: (9.0) - CDS surge close to record, lying about their debt (Greece anyone?), spreads are gearing up
Kyrgyzstan (9.0 +0.5 ) - Violence is flaring up
Italy (8.5) - Debt is spreading
Ireland (8.5) - Debt is looking worse than reported

War

U.S./Mexico: (10 +.5) - Reports of military members from Mexico AND the U.S. slaughtering competing drug gangs on the border. 17,000 dead. It's all out war.
Israel/Syria & Lebanon: (9.5) - Rocket attacks
U.S.: (9.5) - Clinton's worried about subversives, so is Perry, and Rush, and the FBI
Thailand: (9.0 +.5) - Army deploys against the Red Shirts
Georgia: (8.5) - Seized a "Highly Enriched Uranium Shipment"
North/South Korea: (9.0) - The South Korean ship that sunk was allegedly hit by a North Korean torpedo, North seizes hotel chains


Religion
Catholic Church: (9.5) - Is rolling out the PR campaign, upset about mouthy mayors
US/Protestant: (8.5) - GM is marketing directly IN the churches

Tuesday, April 20, 2010

Milton Friedman - The Robin Hood Myth

Monday, April 19, 2010

Goldman Investigation? Ha!

For all who think Goldman Sachs will be thoroughly chastised, the following should be self-explanatory -

Among Federal Candidates, 2008 Cycle

Name Office Total Contributions

Obama, Barack (D-IL) Senate $996,595
Clinton, Hillary (D-NY) Senate $411,150
Romney, Mitt (R) Pres $234,275
McCain, John (R-AZ) Senate $230,095
Himes, Jim (D-CT) House $155,098
Dodd, Chris (D-CT) Senate $112,500
Giuliani, Rudolph W (R) Pres $111,750
Edwards, John (D) Pres $66,450
Specter, Arlen (R-PA) Senate $47,600
Emanuel, Rahm (D-IL) House $37,750
Sununu, John E (R-NH) Senate $31,400
Reed, Jack (D-RI) Senate $30,100
Skelly, Michael Peter (D-TX) House $26,171
Baucus, Max (D-MT) Senate $26,000
Harkin, Tom (D-IA) Senate $24,580
Lautenberg, Frank R (D-NJ) Senate $24,100
Chambliss, Saxby (R-GA) Senate $22,400
Collins, Susan M (R-ME) Senate $21,900
Warner, Mark (D-VA) Senate $21,800
Landrieu, Mary L (D-LA) Senate $20,700
Gillibrand, Kirsten (D-NY) House $20,500
Durbin, Dick (D-IL) Senate $19,500
Coleman, Norm (R-MN) Senate $19,200
Shays, Christopher (R-CT) House $18,400
Rangel, Charles B (D-NY) House $18,100
McConnell, Mitch (R-KY) Senate $17,500
Hoyer, Steny H (D-MD) House $17,300
Kanjorski, Paul E (D-PA) House $16,100
Kirk, Mark (R-IL) House $15,700
Maloney, Carolyn B (D-NY) House $14,600
Cote, Adam (D-ME) House $14,000
Biden, Joseph R Jr (D-DE) Senate $13,800
Rockefeller, Jay (D-WV) Senate $13,400
Cornyn, John (R-TX) Senate $13,100
Dole, Elizabeth (R-NC) Senate $12,800
Pryor, Mark (D-AR) Senate $12,600
Boehner, John (R-OH) House $12,000
Roberts, Pat (R-KS) Senate $11,500
Pelosi, Nancy (D-CA) House $11,000
Udall, Tom (D-NM) House $10,850
Blunt, Roy (R-MO) House $10,500
Udall, Mark (D-CO) House $10,200
Bachus, Spencer (R-AL) House $10,000
Clyburn, James E (D-SC) House $10,000
Dingell, John D (D-MI) House $10,000
Frank, Barney (D-MA) House $10,000
Johnson, Tim (D-SD) Senate $10,000
Menendez, Robert (D-NJ) Senate $10,000
Castle, Michael N (R-DE) House $9,600
Capito, Shelley Moore (R-WV) House $9,500
Allen, Tom (D-ME) House $9,400
Smith, Gordon H (R-OR) Senate $9,400
Crapo, Mike (R-ID) Senate $9,200
Kuhl, John R Jr (R-NY) House $9,000
Enzi, Mike (R-WY) Senate $8,600
Richardson, Bill (D) Pres $8,600
Crowley, Joseph (D-NY) House $8,500
Cantor, Eric (R-VA) House $8,000
Murphy, Chris (D-CT) House $7,700
Schwartz, Allyson (D-PA) House $7,600
Maffei, Dan (D-NY) House $7,500
McCrery, Jim (R-LA) House $7,500
Fitz-Gerald, Joan (D-CO) House $7,400
Murphy, Patrick J (D-PA) House $7,100
McCaul, Michael (R-TX) House $6,900
Becerra, Xavier (D-CA) House $6,600
Biggert, Judy (R-IL) House $6,600
Roskam, Peter (R-IL) House $6,600
Sullivan, Sean Patrick (R-CT) House $6,600
Miller, George (D-CA) House $6,500
Neal, Jim (D-NC) Senate $6,100
Cazayoux, Donald J (D-LA) House $6,000
Foster, Bill (D-IL) House $6,000
Johanns, Michael O (R-NE) Senate $6,000
Lowey, Nita M (D-NY) House $6,000
Reid, Harry (D-NV) Senate $6,000
Lalor, Kieran Michael (R-NY) House $5,650
Salazar, Alfredo (3-PR) $5,600
Treadwell, Sandy (R-NY) House $5,600
Etheridge, Bob (D-NC) House $5,500
Levin, Carl (D-MI) Senate $5,500
Nadler, Jerrold (D-NY) House $5,500
Neugebauer, Randy (R-TX) House $5,500
Walberg, Tim (R-MI) House $5,500
Wexler, Robert (D-FL) House $5,500
Shafroth, William G (D-CO) House $5,300
Martin, James Francis (D-GA) Senate $5,100
Minnick, Walter Clifford (D-ID) House $5,100
Andrews, Robert E (D-NJ) House $5,000
Arcuri, Michael (D-NY) House $5,000
Camp, Dave (R-MI) House $5,000
DeLauro, Rosa L (D-CT) House $5,000
Hall, John (D-NY) House $5,000
Kerry, John (D-MA) Senate $5,000
McMahon, Michael E (D-NY) House $5,000
Moore, Dennis (D-KS) House $5,000
Peterson, Collin C (D-MN) House $5,000
Putnam, Adam H (R-FL) House $5,000
Reynolds, Tom (R-NY) House $5,000
Scott, David (D-GA) House $5,000

Saturday, April 17, 2010

Ron Paul's Tea Party Speech

Week End

Economy
Greece: (9.5 N/A) - Banks are getting downgraded by Fitch, no actual bailout implementation, trying bonds one last time

Japan (9.5) - Economy is in a world of hurt

U.S. (9.5 + 0.5) - Tax day is here and saboteurs are in the open, CO2 emission cuts will destroy the last of the "recovery", coming to the table April 26th, unemployment is up again, Soros is talking smack on the market, foreclosures are accelerating, Goldman Sachs and WaMu were committing fraud, China is selling U.S. bonds, confederate soldiers were terrorists, gold manipulation, Patriot Day is Monday, who needs priests when the educators can spy on your kids?

Spain (9.0) - 20% Unemployment

Portugal (8.5) - Debt is blowing up bonds

Iceland/Western Europe (9.0) - No air travel can't help the economies

Kyrgyzstan (8.5 -0.5 ) - U.S. Airbase is back open

Dubai (8.5) - Deferments

War
Israel/Syria & Lebanon (9.5) - Syria has SCUDS and War is imminent, police drills in Jerusalem, Israelis leaving Sinai

Thailand (9.0 +.5) - Will the step down?

Georgia (8.5) - Thousands rally to demand resignations

Religion
Catholic Church (9.5) - Catholic church is backpedaling as people leave in droves and cases of abuse explode.


Updated: 1/26/2012 - Mild format and spelling issues.

Friday, April 16, 2010

Corrupt Cops, Big Surprise

A report from Miami Beach -
Miami Beach Police Officer Manuel Chorens...has secrets. For one, he's rich. In 2008, he pulled in $175,651.84.

Also, he's a crook.

In August 2008 at the Lincoln Road CVS — a drugstore blocks from the beach where hordes of tourists buy flip-flops and sunscreen — managers noticed goods disappearing from the shelves. They began watching the 14-year veteran cop. Soon they saw Chorens, who had been paid tens of thousands of dollars to protect their store, filling plastic CVS bags and stashing them in the security room in back. More than $5,000 worth of stuff went missing.

A CVS investigator decided to dig a little deeper. He noted the time each night Chorens showed up for his shift and when he clocked out. The hours didn't add up.

So someone from the store called internal affairs investigators, who poked around some more.

Sure enough, they found Chorens was blatantly cheating CVS. Night after night, he'd arrive around 8 p.m. and stay until 10 or 11. Sometimes he didn't even show up. On his pay sheets, though, he claimed six or seven hours at the drugstore.
Pretty cut and dry, right? Wrong...
Though internal investigators found video footage of Chorens stuffing bags and taking them home, they exonerated him of theft charges.
Just one guy right?
A Miami New Times investigation has found that 200 officers — 54 percent of the 367 nonexecutive cops — made six figures last year. One of them raked in almost $214,000, more than the chief or the Beach's mayor. A sergeant earned just under $230,000 a few years ago; that's about equal to Vice President Joe Biden's annual salary. It gets worse. The Beach force, which patrols an idyllic strip of sand relatively free of blight and gang violence, is not only the best paid in the region but also among the most troubled.
The article then goes on to cite cases of sleeping on the job, harassment, domestic violence, drug use, kidnapping, torture and murder. And where is the mayor?
"I certainly didn't realize our police officers were making so much money," Miami Beach Mayor Matti Herrera Bower says.
Asleep on the job as well.

The Real Effect
This is why America is angry. There is a definite divide between the public and private sector and a further divide within the public sector favoring those who "play ball" with the public sector "authorities". This has created a tiered system with more and more "public policy" which is little more than a system to empower those who would assure us they are our leaders.

The law is supposed to be blind. But all too often your connections will not only reduce your sentence, it will allow for flagrant and rampant evil.

And now they want more taxes, more control and assuredly more evil? At some point, the oppressed say no more. To quote -
One of the great myths is that Americans are free people and once upon a time they were but they've not been free since 1913. Because once you have an income tax you no longer own your own labor and the historic definition of a free person is a person who owns his own labor. If you don't own your own labor, you are a serf or a slave. ~ Paul Craig Roberts