On Gun Control and Violence

Ron Paul -

The terrible violence in Arizona last weekend prompted much national discussion on many issues. All Americans are united in their sympathies for the victims and their families. All wonder what could motivate such a horrible act. However, some have attempted to use this tragedy to discredit philosophical adversaries or score political points. This sort of opportunism is simply despicable.

Since police cannot be everywhere all of the time, a large part of our personal safety depends on our ability to defend ourselves.

We are fortunate to live in a society where violence is universally denounced. Not one public official or commentator has attempted to justify this reprehensible act, yet the newspapers, internet, and airwaves are full of people trying to claim it was somehow motivated by someone else’s political rhetoric. Most disturbing are the calls to use government power to censor certain forms of speech, and even outlaw certain types of criticism of public officials. This was the completely apolitical act of a violent and disturbed man. How sad that the attempted murder of the Congresswoman who had just read the First Amendment on the House floor would be used in efforts to chill free speech! Perhaps some would feel safer if the Alien and Sedition Acts were reinstated.

Also troubling are the renewed calls for stricter gun control laws, and for government to “do something” to somehow prevent similar incidents in the future. This always seems to be the knee jerk reaction to any crime committed with a gun. Nonsensical proposals to outlaw guns around federal officials and install bulletproof barriers in the congressional gallery only reinforce the growing perception that politicians view their own lives as far more important than the lives of ordinary citizens. Politicians and a complicit media have conditioned many citizens to view government as our protector, leading to more demands for government action whenever tragedies occur. But this impulse is at odds with the best American traditions of self-reliance and individualism, and it also leads to bad laws and the loss of liberty.

Remember – liberty only has meaning if we still believe in it when terrible things happen and more government security is demanded. Government cannot make us safe by mandating security any more than it can make us prosperous by decreeing an end to poverty.

We need to reaffirm the core American value of individual responsibility. Consider the young man who had the courage to tackle the shooter and prevent further carnage because he himself had a concealed weapon. Without that gun, he could have been yet another sitting duck. When peaceful citizens are armed, they at least have a chance against armed criminals.

Advocates of gun control would urge us to leave our safety to law enforcement, but eyewitness reports indicate it took police as much as 20 minutes to arrive on the scene that day! Since police cannot be everywhere all of the time, a large part of our personal safety depends on our ability to defend ourselves.

Our constitutional right to bear arms does not create a society without risks of violent crime, and neither would the strictest gun control laws. Guns and violence are a fact of life. The question is whether it is preferable to be defenseless while waiting for the police, or to have the option to arm yourself. We certainly know criminals prefer the former.

Bankruptcy of U.S. is ‘Mathematical Certainty'

Detroit to Shutter Its Schools?

I love to argue with individuals which claim there is no consequences to obscene levels of government spending -

Detroit Public Schools would close nearly half of its schools in the next two years, and increase high school class sizes to 62 by the following year, under a deficit-reduction plan filed with the state.

The plan, part of a monthly update Emergency Financial Manager Robert Bobb gives the Department of Education, was filed late Monday to provide insight into Bobb's progress in his attempt to slash a $327 million deficit in the district to zero over the next several years. Under it, the district would slim down from 142 schools now to 72 during 2012-13.

Bobb has said school closures, bigger classes and other measures would be needed if he cannot get help from lawmakers to restructure finances in the state's largest school district.

DPS considered but declined to file for bankruptcy in 2009. In the past year, debt in the district has increased by more than $100 million, brought on by a mix of revenue declines in property taxes, reduced state aid, declining enrollment and an unplanned staffing surge this past fall.

Wow, that's pretty brutal. Think the unions have learned their lessons yet? Nope...

Keith Johnson, president of the teachers union, said the proposed class size increases won't work and will never happen.

"I will never agree to any class-size increases," Johnson said. "These increases are antithetical to learning. Secondly, our classrooms aren't even built to accommodate those numbers.

Oh, but wait there's more.

District officials said they are pursuing "renaissance" legislation to free up $400 million in future tobacco settlement funds that could help mend DPS' deficit and those of 40 other districts statewide. In return, the districts would make dramatic reforms based on the federal Race to the Top initiative, such as eliminating teacher seniority.

The Real Effect
Notice the gimmicks and games going on here? Detroit is looking at bankruptcy and even has an Emergency Financial Manager and yet the attitude of 'No concessions, it's for the children!' prevails? They are even going so far as to look at raiding special funds in order to plug the holes. Who doesn't think this will ultimately end up in even more draconian legislation outlawing more behaviors (of course with a huge financial penalty involved) in the name of safety?

This is why socialism, fascism and ultimately tyranny repeatedly fail. Despite their insistence to the contrary, these systems have no reliable method by which they can gauge the effectiveness or viability of a given system without systematically destroying innovation. Given, you can push, prod and cajole for a time, but inevitably the system finds a way around it. Eventually, the state will criminalize this behavior as well.

All you municipalities around the country, take notice now. This level of austerity IS coming to your area, Detroit is just years ahead of the rest of us.

You want to fix it? Implement the following:

• Eliminate egregious taxation such as
• Property Tax
• Income Tax
• Seize unowned/abandoned land and hold an auction to give it to the cheapest local bidder
• Eliminate the interfering bureaucracy (Health codes, land use, registrations, etc...)
• Ensure the courts are giving priority to cases of civil rights and property law. All other misc. cases such as 'traffic violations' unless violating the previous rights should be summarily dismissed.

An area that does this will become a bastion of freedom first and a beacon of economic prosperity later.

Gate Promotes Mandatory Vaccines for All?

I always love how the innovative individuals of yesteryear become the fascist supporters of today -

“The key thing, the most important fact that people should know and make sure other people know: As you save children under 5, that is the thing that reduces population growth,” he said. “That sounds paradoxical. The fact is that within a decade of improving health outcomes, parents decide to have less children.”

The number of children who die before their fifth birthday has already dropped from 20 million in 1960 to 8.5 million today, a statistic Gates attributes mostly to vaccination.

“About one-third [of that improvement] is by increasing income,” Gates said. “The majority has been through vaccines. Vaccines will be the key. If you could register every birth on a cell phone — get fingerprints, get a location — then you could [set up] systems to make sure the immunizations happen.”

Gates suggested using cell phones to record each birth and send the information, including biometric identifiers, to a central database. This database would then send reminders to parents’ phones when it was time to come in for vaccines or other treatments. He said a prime location to implement such programs would be northern Nigeria or northern India, where vaccination rates are less than 50 percent.

The Real Effect
So, we are to believe several things if we listen to Gates:

1. Population growth is an inherently bad thing.
2. Vaccination is saving children. (Despite a virtual void of evidence indicating this point)
3. Therefore the answer to the problem is to probably force consumers to get not only his technology but his health care solutions as well?

Uh, no sir. The answer is to allow the individual consumer to make these choices, not foist up oligarchical/aristocratic control mechanisms. Has the current economic plight demonstrated in say, Detroit, taught you nothing?

National Debt. To whom do we owe it? (2/5) Ron Paul 2008

Question To President Obama

Housing Values and the "D" Word

Like I said from the beginning, Depression (houses too)-

In the past few years, we’ve all been careful to choose our words carefully, not calling it a recession until it fit the technical definition and avoiding any inappropriate use of the “D” word — Depression.

Things were bad but the broader economy never reached Depression territory. The housing market, on the other hand, just crossed that threshold.

Home values have fallen 26 percent since their peak in June 2006, worse than the 25.9-percent decline seen during the Depression years between 1928 and 1933, Zillow reported.

November marked the 53rd consecutive month (4 ½ years) that home values have fallen.

What’s worse, it’s not over yet: Home values are expected to continue to slide as inventories pile up, and likely won't recover until the job market improves.

The Real Effect
I love how CNBC is trying to say that house prices won't recover until the job market improves. While able to be correlated, what is needed is price discovery. We need to know where the bottom is and the more that we try to prop up prices, the more we encourage speculation in one market or another.

The Feds cannot sustain an artificially high housing price forever, at some point, they will fall. And fall hard. This will not be good for everyone, but it will be bad for those who primarily encouraged this artificiality. In other words, it will be bad for the people that caused the problem in the first place.

This will end bad lending practices, crazy leveraging, and encourage a return to a stable economy.

Nigel Farage: Euro Empire Collapsing, Bailout River Dry

Record Labels, Banks and Situational Ethics

What an interesting day it is -

The major record labels are known for their harsh stance on copyright infringements, which in an ironic turn of events is now costing them millions of dollars. Revealing a double standard when it comes to ‘piracy’, Warner Music, Sony BMG Music, EMI Music and Universal Music now have to pay Canadian artists $45 Million for the illegal use of thousands of tracks on compilation CDs.

Over the years the labels have made a habit of using songs from a wide variety of artists for compilation CDs without securing the rights. They simply use the recording and make note of it on “pending list” so they can deal with it later. This has been going on since the 1980s and since then the list of unpaid tracks (or copyright infringements) has grown to 300,000 in Canada alone.

This questionable practice has been the subject of an interesting Canadian class action lawsuit which was started in 2008. A group of artists and composers who grew tired of waiting endlessly for their money filed a lawsuit against four major labels connected to the CRIA, the local equivalent of the RIAA.

Warner Music, Sony BMG Music, EMI Music and Universal Music were sued for the illegal use of thousands of tracks and risked paying damages of up to $6 billion. Today the news broke that the two parties have agreed upon a settlement, where the record labels are required to pay $45 million to settle the copyright infringement claims.

The Real Effect
Ah, now this gets to the heart of the matter doesn't it?

Today we are subjected to many labels that are often less based on law and more based on fiat displays of raw power. Terms like "democracy", "freedom", "pirate" and "free" are bandied about without little thought to the power behind these terms and ideas.

In this instance, we have an empowered group of individuals with nothing more than pure power bullying segments of the population into personal serfdom for a sole act of copying. Yet, when these same entities are confronted on the logical extension of their personal position, their response is 'It's different.' Why different? Who knows.

This illustrates the growing aristocratic class that is granting itself titles of nobility in this country. For instance - If you don't pay your mortgage, you lose your house. If the bank doesn't pay theirs, they get to pay a small fee and keep the property, sometimes even if they never even owned it in the first place. If you go to a casino, blow all your money, I'm guessing you won't be getting a bailout. And if you break into someones car, I highly doubt you'll be exonerated as keeping the peace. (Let's not even get into the insanity of the right to be free from guns law.)

No, this country exists under the pretense that there is equal justice under the law. First and foremost the natural law, followed by the Supreme Law, the Constitution. It is high time that we get it into our thick skulls that the solution to these 'problems' is equal standing before the law and not special laws that 'deal' with situations.

Old Age Perils: Retirement Made Bleak in UK

Stock Market Plunge Sparks Violent Protests in Bangladesh

Assassinations and Liberty

In my writing in May, I encouraged individuals to do their due diligence on that what they witness.

Keep your eyes open folks and get to the bottom of every story. These are the times in which the world's "rules" are rewritten by the victors of the upcoming war.

At this point, I am highly discouraged, but not surprised by what I am seeing emerge from the fallout over the Arizona Congressional shooting.

For starters, Rep. Boehner, the newly elected Majority Speaker made the outrageous statement that "an attack on one who serves is an attack on all who serve." Class warfare? Seriously Mr. Boehner, do you believe this statement to be true? If so, what is to be made of the myriads of Americans that are brutally slaughtered by the police every year for committing the crime of being in the wrong place at the wrong time? Would you tolerate the People, rising up against your power base in like fashion simply because one individual did something reprehensible? Surely I would pray that this would not be the case.

Pima County, Ariz., Sheriff Clarence Dupnik is blaming talk radio and TV, the left is blaming the Tea Party, the Right is blaming the socialists and the Southern Poverty Law Center is blaming Ayn Rand and David Icke?
No, the paradigm that is being fronted in all of these cases and now targeted by potential legislation is that IDEAS are to blame. That somehow, the people mustn't engage in thought-crime unless they carry the title of Representative. Or fly on a plane. What a foolish thought.

The only entity that is to blame in any way is the individual that committed the crime, one Jared Loughner. He alone bears this responsibility for acting on his beliefs and he alone should share in its legal consequences. If further actors are uncovered, then they should likewise join him in his fate.

If we are to believe in the rule of law again in this country, something that is becoming a distant possibility, we must believe that the laws that govern its people are just, not irrational power grabs built on emotional house of cards.

We as freedom loving individuals must unequivocally condemn these senseless acts of violence that depreciate the value of a human life fashioned in the Almighty's image. But in doing so, we also must condemn the reactionary violence carried out in our name by those who claim to represent us against so-called terror threats. Are our lives more precious then theirs? Are we any less culpable by association in this country then they are?

The answer is not to bite on the bait that we are being presented. We must not be deceived into a false "us vs. them" paradigm that will only end in tears. This country once existed as a beacon of personal freedom and liberty and if it is to survive, it must once again return there.

 (Written 1/10/2011, Published 2/10/2011)

Bank of America Takes a Shot to the Head

The ruling is in and it spells trouble for the financial system -

The banks tried to get constructive assignment (e.g. assignment by contract, even though the PSAs said otherwise - that actual assignment and delivery had to take place) recognized by the judge, and failed to produce evidence of actual assignment (because there wasn't any - the notes were originally endorsed in blank and there was no evidence of actual physical delivery to the trustee.)  The Judge said no.  That's what I was talking about earlier in this case - this has been the pattern and practice in these securitized loans, and the ASF and others in the industry have argued that despite language in the PSAs that required physical delivery they didn't have actually perform in that fashion to have a factually and legally-good transfer

The Real Effect
As Denninger has been repeatedly pointing out, there is State law about how you can conduct your business. The banks violated that law, lied about it, and committed fraud.

This is going to get ugly as now everyone who lost something in 2008 is going to be out for their pound of flesh. There's pretty much only one of two ways this can end:

1. The bankruptcy of most if not all of the institutions that participated in this via the hands of their investors. (This is the preferred method)
2. Some sort of legal rangling involving bailouts, law changes or nationalization of these institutions. (3808 anyone?)

Look for Republicans to get on the wrong side of this argument as they try to get between the people and the bankers.

A Sign of the Times - Fashion Bug and Dockside Home Decor Shutdown in Port Richey

Economic Showdown, Round 1

Reuters speaks to the insanity that will be coming our way -

The United States could hit the legal limit on its ability to borrow as soon as March 31 and faces serious consequences unless Congress acts by then to raise it, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said on Thursday.

"Even a short-term or limited default would have catastrophic economic consequences that would last for decades," Geithner said in a letter to U.S. Senate Majority leader Harry Reid that was issued by Treasury.

Geithner said it was hard to pin down exactly when the current $14.3 trillion ceiling on the debt limit would be pierced but urged Congress to act before the end of the first quarter.

"The Treasury department now estimates that the debt limit will be reached as early as March 31, 2011, and most likely between that date and May 16, 2011," he wrote.

He said Treasury could engage in extraordinary measures, such as suspending sales of state and local government securities, but preferred not to because it is disruptive.

He warned that failure by Congress to raise the debt limit, which would effectively put the United States into default on its obligations for the first time in its history, would have consequences "potentially much more harmful than the effects of the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009."

The Real Effect
Eh, I'm a little ahead of the curve as usual, but this will definitely be a huge issue coming up. What is the most interesting is how the different people are being publicly positioned. Note the following:

• Anyone for raising the debt ceiling is being portrayed as being responsible. (This is akin to an unemployed man being responsible if he secures a new credit card when he's already defaulting on his previous cards.) Most Democrats and some Republicans.
• Anyone talking about cutting some spending is seen as either responsible or insane depending on the side doing the observing. (Akin to the same man not buying a 65" plasma TV, but perhaps a 50" instead.) Some Republicans and some Tea Party.
• Anyone discussing actually balancing the spending with debt and even going so far as to suggest massively cutting spending programs are regarded as insane and perhaps even responsible for the calamities that follow. (Akin to the man blaming the decline of his credit card as being the reason as to why he's in such a mess.) Very few Tea Party members.

The pain is coming, very soon. What will be telling is who blames who for the fallout. I believe the Democrats will blame Bush and the new Republicans for being crazy. (Laughable) Republicans will blame Obama. (Equally laughable seeing as how the "crisis" started before Obama took over). Of course those foolish Tea Party members are getting to the party just in time to get thrown under the bus, or drive it right off the cliff.

Time to check your undies, we're headed towards an accident.

Cop Shoots Family Dog! Family Sues Cop!

Blackbirds, Fish and Shrill Screams of Armageddon - Alpha Religion Hides in the Shadows

There is little mystery behind the fact that some people see the end of the world behind every corner -

Texas -

A large number of dead birds spotted on the Hwy 155 bridge near Ore City is most likely a natural occurrence in the area.

According to Texas Parks and Wildlife Department's Media Communication Director, Tom Harvey, it is not uncommon to see dozens of dead birds on this bridge, including the American Coots here.

The interesting thing though is that it doesn't end there - Florida, Manitoba, Canada, Argentina, Louisianna, Arkansas.

The Real Effect
Disturbing? Definitely. However, this issue is being spun already into all sorts of hysterical mumbo-jumbo. Surely it needs to be examined, but more important issues include -

• What damage has been done to the ecosystem in the Gulf because of the BP oil spill and the subsequent clean-up efforts?
• Does HAARP play a role in this?
• What role does geo-modification play in this?

Perhaps this piece on PrisonPlanet will clear things up a bit more.

Yes, I do think all of this has something to do with the 'end times' but not for the reasons that everyone assumes. My working theory at this point is that ultimately all religions must be demonized in order that 'saner minds may prevail'. In this fashion, a new religion can be fashioned out of the remnants of the old religions, globalism and human reason that we shall tentatively call the Alpha religion.

Feast in Time of Plague: Wall Street Art of Sucking Money

2011 Predictions

In what has become a mainstay here at the Real Effect, I strive to offer my readers with an excellent view of what is coming down the current events pipe by offering cutting-edge and usually provocative predictions.

Let us look at the past successes -

• 2010 (1,2,3) - After a three year absence, the predictions returned with a stunning 95% accuracy in part I, part II will be along shortly.
• 2007 - 2009 - Due to time constraints on research, the predictions became distributed throughout the year, peppered inside various articles. I leave the collection of those predictions to the reader for the time being.
• 2006 - The first incarnation of the annual predictions saw an accuracy rating of 69% and stunning prognostication of the following major events:
• Housing market collapse
• Democratic Congressional takeover
• Iran war targeting (Resulting in the resignation of Fox Fallun)
• China and North Korea identified as potential threats
• Oil/Gasoline price explosion
• Religious demonizing and marginalization
• Israeli Ariel Sharon's health issues

However, we here at The Real Effect are not in the business of rehashing the past, which is a matter best left to other parties. Presently we shall stick to our strength of making future predictions. So it is without further adieu I present the 2011 predictions! (Keep in mind, that all of this is barring what has become commonly called a WTSHTF scenario.)

Economy

• Europe detonates, especially in the east -
• Eastern Europe sinks to crisis level with reports of food shortages, rioting and widespread Depression.
• Hungary (10 Yr 8.02%) may be the first to go.
• Western Europe contracts massively, putting extraordinary pressure on the Euro. But the call out of Belgium isn't about revoking the Euro, rather about the preservation of the European Union and the need to 'pull together'. I would expect that we could begin to see propaganda calling for a United Europe in the face of "x" (economic crisis, terror, war). Ultimately in the endgame, foreign creditors feel the massive pinch as they try to protect their investments, but the lack of a favorable response by the people will lead to war with the far east, but not yet.
• Bonds play an absolutely critical role with the European Financial Stability Facility taking center stage.The days of "free money" are coming to an end.
• Germany  (10 Yr 2.958%)- Notice how they refused to implement stimulus and now they are recovering? Yet in order to achieve a United Europe that involves Germany bailing out everyone else. This will probably lead to massive protests by the Germans over forced foreign austerity.
• Greece (Bonds - 12.01%) Still in a world of hurt
• Ireland (10 Yr 9.058%) was once the economic jewel of Europe, but recently Moody's slashed their rating by five levels. (How does that EU bureaucracy taste, eh?)
• Portugal (10 Yr 6.682%) - Dying on the vine, they will need foreign intervention.
• Italy (10 Yr 4.8%)
• Spain (10 Yr 5.453%), France (10 Yr 3.32%) and Belgium
• United States
• No recovery. The public is aware, but the media begins to be aware that all of the so-called recovery talk was nothing more than statistical nonsense.
• Consumer spending hits a wall and continues to decline moderately.
• Almost all classes are spending significantly more on food at home. (Sales at fast foods down?) Esp The poor (below $19,301)
• Housing costs have gone up significantly for the poor.
• Health insurance costs are exploding for all classes, esp middle - rich.
• Education costs have gone up for all but the poor. Unemployed students will build the coming revolution. (What else do they have to do?)
• 
• The country faces the worst Christmas in at least 25 years. It is very possible that this not be immediately realized because of nominal reporting but the devil is hidden in the details like margin compression, something Karl Denninger has been adamant about for quite some time.
• As this plays out throughout the first quarter, this kills off many struggling chains or at a bare minimum, (barring "bailouts") sets the stage for later Corporate Death.
• Massive Unemployment U-3 goes to 11%, U-6 to 18.5%  (Yes, I know I'm asking for it)
• 
  
• 
  The Employment rate continues to plunge
  
  
  
  
• Millions more people fall off the unemployment rosters.
• Actual Inflation is rampant and MASSIVE (+10-20%)
• Commodities - MASSIVE increases in cost. 
•  

• Oil becomes a political issue again (Due to being dollar driven) It will easily top $100 a barrel and probably aim for $150 again. (In line with last year's prediction that it will become an issue again later.) Yet people are using far less oil.
• 
• Gold - $1800 - $2000, Silver - $40 - 60
• Expect a massive rally in the first quarter of 2011, cooling off for the summer and then another strong rally at the back half of the year.
• Silver becomes especially difficult to physically source as the Comex cracks and demand goes up. (Perhaps hitting $40 in Q1, then cooling down until winter)
• Cotton - Clothing becomes expensive. This will eat away at many "cheap" clothing alternatives like Wal-Mart and Target.
• Food becomes more expensive, shortages continue.
•  
  
• Denninger -
  

  The lowest quintile - the poorest Americans - are spending 23% more on food, 8% more on housing, and 9% more on health insurance.
  
  What's worse, they're not spending less on food away from home.
  
  This is the key. They're not shifting spending (as you can see in the above table) they are being forced to spend more even as their income decreases.

• Local governments collapse
• Municipalities disband and declare bankruptcy to avoid liabilities. In fact, it's already starting.
• State governments stagger
• Deficits swell as many budgets were predicated upon the "summer of recovery" which turns out to be less of a recovery and more of a flat-line.
• Federal government surges nominally. While appearing to die, the federal government starts consuming everything in a dire attempt to stay solvent. (Sink or swim mentality)
• Currently the budget deficit is $202 Trillion (Including unfunded liabilities)
• Pensions are gradually shifted to state/Federal funds.
• Bond rates collapse further
• FDIC is still insolvent and its line of credit at the Treasury Dept. legally runs out
• Food stamp rates will continue to soar.

• Foreclosure-gate rocks the world
• Housing prices decline nominally by at least 5% (As Vox Day points out this is the amount of the 2009 tax credit) more likely 10% and perhaps it gets as bad as 20%.
• Please note that previous bubbles do not lead the way of the next economic expansion.
• H.R. 3808 is resurrected by the Republicans and signed into law. (This will be seen as bipartisanship)
• Individuals and companies attempt to protect their capitol by investing in anything that is inflation proof.
• Minor to moderate bank runs

 

• Stocks sell off nominally, finally.
•  Many of these institutions are holding a certain "value" on their books with regards to housing prices. If these values start plummeting, the banks will either be forced to seek another bailout or get crushed.
• The markets were propped up by MASSIVE injections of liquidity in POMOs and QE 1 and QE2.
• HFT (High Frequency Trading) becomes a mainstream term due to increasing exposure to the concept by the mainstream media. (Adobe)  

War
With much of the fallout from "The Currency War" devastating the global economies, the action leaves the banks and hits the courts eventually ending on the battlefield. (More towards 2012)

• Worldwide, America is blamed for the global economic fallout.  (CDS, MBS securities)
• This stokes anti-American/liberty resentment which will find a place to mature later.
  
• A world war by the end of 2012 (See the Religious War Series for details) 
• North Korea/South Korea trade volleys, but do NOT go to war. I don't believe this particular feud is at a fever pitch quite yet.

Politics
Having swept into power in 2010, the American populace's stomach for shenanigans is limited and the parties know it.

• The neoconservative version of the Tea Party takes its seats and promptly sells/blows out.
• To be sure there will be plenty of grandstanding about "austerity", but sacred cows like defense spending, corporate welfare and education will be supported by the NeoTeas.
• Critical legislation and opportunities (Like an End the Fed bill) are torpedoed by the appropriate sides.
• I will go so far as to say that a major 'patriot' will betray the movement.
  
• January - A lot of rhetoric, but not a lot of results. Talks by Republicans will resume of obstructionism and "dirty politics" by Obama.
• Presidential Race heats up - May?
• The third party "change" meme becomes more palatable, but not yet as frustrations lead to a party that will eventually become the Global Party
• The cry will go out that 'In this hour, we cannot afford to be divided.'

Religion
After a massive downturn over the last 5 years, the remnants of much of the "religious right" get fed up with the left's "societal engineering".  This leads to the following -

• Nationalistic denominationalism - The Christians return to the forefront with a vengeance as the Glenn Beck rally/Palin crowd embrace "Americana" nationalism and go after the infidels. 
• The "founder's intent"/"What this country was founded on" ends up fueling a nationalistic religious fervor that seeks to incarcerate and make war anyone who doesn't see their light.

But the rub lies in the fact that the left and the right are destined to destroy one another and lead to a new left/right party.


Culture

• Worldly obsession with 'otherworldly' entities picks up steam but does not reach critical mass. Such items will include:
• Aliens/Project Bluebeam
• Angel/Demon gates
• In reaction to rampant criminality, virtues become fashionable/marketable again.
• Crime increases - The desperate lower class sees the upper class as the reason for their suffering. Except the middle class will be their target, not the bankers.

Healthcare
As Obamacare takes hold, in order to make the "system" solvent, the Government moves to do the following:

• The licensing and eventual banning of vitamins and nutritional supplements. (Competition is a sin)
• Healthcare shortages are realized as workers retire early en-masse in order to avoid being part of the system. Doctors especially become more scarce as new recruits refuse to enter the field.
• A black market for health care becomes viable.

I've also decided to link to Vox and Karl's 2011 predictions for the reader's benefit. While they share many similarities, I can assure the reader that I have been writing these for at least 3 months now. (As the blog articles will attest.)

(Note: In my haste to get some of these out by the first of January, I might have left off some links or inadequately explained some of the  predictions. I reserve the right to edit some of the information until January 7th, 2011)

US Cities Bankruptcy

Lifetime Servitude - The Real Cost of a College Education in the UK

Most people never even think about college education from an investment standpoint -

Government estimates show that their new university fees system is unsustainable, and that students will spend their whole working lives paying back the cost of a degree.

It is thought that only one in four will be able to pay back the full cost of their education show internal government figures, seen by the Independent on Sunday.

Ministers believe most graduates will spend their whole working lives making monthly payments simply covering their loans and interest, but never settling their debts.

According to a briefing note from the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills (BIS) only 25% of graduates will repay “at least 100 per cent of the original value of their loans in PV [present value] terms”.

Their ‘best case scenario’ sees a maximum of half of university leavers settling their debts, and 60% will never pay in full.

Labour have now questioned the sustainability of the new system, with shadow universities minister Gareth Thomas saying, “The Government’s figures look more and more questionable.

“When even they think such a high number of students will not be able to repay their loans in full, it underlines just how unfair and unsustainable it is trebling student fees.”

The Real Effect
Now, this is not to say that all college degrees are worthless, just most of them. What is actually needed is productive innovation and creativity not "education" or at the least what constitutes a modern education.

Think for a moment, if America, several hundred years ago could innovate and design its way out of poverty and lead the world into an industrial revolution, what is preventing us from doing it again? Namely our lack of liberty to make it so.

It's quite alright those because bankrupt systems inevitably reap the seeds that have previously sown in foolishness. This bloodshed will create the soil for new, vibrant institutions which will offer a competitive advantage to those who actually want it.

But what actually stymies me is the fact that so many students not only want the inferior product that is offered in the system, but that they think they can't live without it. Sorry kids, your grandparents made do, so can you.

Wikileaks Israels Plan to Shut Down US Internet in Action

Surveillance State - The US Is Quickly Entering the Techno-Fascist Realm

Can you tell it's Christmas? March out the terrorists! Sigh, what isn't a terrorist nowadays -

Attorney General Eric Holder has an urgent message for Americans: While he is confident that the United States will continue to thwart attacks, "the terrorists only have to be successful once."

"What I am trying to do in this interview is to make people aware of the fact that the threat is real, the threat is different, the threat is constant," he said. 

They only have to be successful once? What does that even mean? To what end?  This is annual nonsense that is designed solely to freak out average citizens and justify the monstrosity that the government is evolving into.


Holder continues -

In a rare and wide-ranging interview, the attorney general disclosed chilling, new details about the evolving threat of homegrown terror, and touched on topics ranging from Wikileaks to the prisoners at Guantanamo Bay.

What was uppermost on his mind, however, is the alarming rise in the number of Americans who are more than willing to attack and kill their fellow citizens. 

This is just disingenuous.  Notice how only the government can define the threat? Notice the lack of details how it's morphing into your cousin, your uncle, your brother?

In the last 24 months, Holder said, 126 people have been indicted on terrorist-related charges, Fifty of those people are American citizens.

"I think that what is most alarming to me is the totality of what we see, the attorney general said. "Whether it is an attempt to bomb the New York City subway system, an attempt to bring down an airplane over Detroit, an attempt to set off a bomb in Times Square ... I think that gives us a sense of the breadth of the challenges that we face, and the kinds of things that our enemy is trying to do."

Holder says many of these converts to al Qaeda have something in common: a link to radical cleric Anwar Al Awlaki, an American citizen himself.

That's rich, 126 people are indicted on terrorist-related charges. Ooooo sounds scary. I know that idiot that tried blowing up a plane by LIGHTING HIS PANTS ON FIRE is certainly scary.


The Real Effect
No in all seriousness, does the fact that the bogeyman Anwar Al Awlaki dined at the, Pentagon bother anyone?  Or many of these supposed terrorists are tied to him and are often, if not always set up by the government? Manufactured crisis anyone? Ordo ab chao.

It's easy to see why they are doing this. The government has a revolt on their hands because the serfs are tired of being treated like cattle with the non-stop intrusion by Big Brother into their mail, their data, their garbage, travel, places of business, health care, food, even their opinions.

Government is behaving like an out of control mother hen segregating and isolating her chicks into bubbles to "protect" them from the big scary world. Except the bubbles have a common name here in the real world.

Prison.

Milton Friedman - Abolish the FED!

2010 Year End Review Part 1

On December 31, 2009 I posted the following New Year's predictions for 2010. I broke the post into two parts with the prediction (Real Effect) followed by the review (Evidence) Let's review -

Unemployment
Real Effect -

U3 will hit 11.5 % and could go as high as 15%, the U6 as high as 30%, but the rates will certainly not go down very far, if they go down at all. 

Evidence -

U-3 comes in at 9.8%, U-6 is more notable at 17% and SGS-alt is at roughly 23%
Oooo, a swing and a huge miss. Not a good way to start things off but there is good reason as to why the prediction was inaccurate. People are hiding the facts. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has managed to downplay the severity of  numbers through various methods:

1. Releasing low initial estimates, then quietly revising the numbers upwards the next week. (To instill confidence in the market.)
2. Emphasizing the U-3 data and ignoring the historical U-6 data. Which coincidentally is officially approaching Depression levels.
3. They are totally ignoring the Labor Participation Rate which has individuals becoming not only unemployed, but off of unemployment as well. (No longer being reported in the statistics because they have given up searching)

The stimulus and positive "animal spirits" have plateaued unemployment. For now.

Points awarded (0 of 1)

Commodities
Real Effect -

According to economists John Williams and Bob Chapman gold is going to explode, perhaps as high as $7,000 and ounce. This temporary dip down is nothing more than a small technical correction.

Evidence -
October witnessed and explosion in the gold and silver markets with massive gains. Silver is holding at $30 an ounce and gold at $1400. One year ago they were at $18 and $1100 respectively for a massive gain of 67% and 27% YOY. Anyone that had invested in silver would have made some amazing profits for the year.

I would think returns upwards of 25% are an "explosion", especially when all the nay-sayers at the time were talking of precious metals as being in a bubble and actually going down. 
Points awarded (1 of 1)

Real Effect -

Food will probably be up 6% and we could possibly hit a scenario where we could physically run out.

Evidence -
Prediction achieved in Review I

Points awarded (1 of 1)

Real Effect -

Oil is currently at $78.97 and it could go somewhat higher, although I do not believe it will be as volatile as it was in years past. (Unless the Straits of Hormuz gets blocked)

Evidence -
Achieved in Review I

On a side note, inflation in commodities is a difficult thing to account for at the moment and definitely affected oil on the back half of 2010 with crude coming in around $90. It appears that it depends on when you catch it as overall, the black gold bounced back and forth between 80 and 90 for most of the year. (Gains AND losses of roughly 13%)

Points awarded (1 of 1)

Commercial Real Estate Collapse
Real Effect -

Is already in progress and gathering steam with the bankruptcy of CIT Group which is tied at the hip with CITI Group. In fact it has already fallen 37 percent in value in the last year and defaults are reaching 16 year highs.

Evidence -
Achieved in Review I

Points awarded (1 of 1)

Real Estate Collapse
Real Effect -

The second wave of the housing market collapse hits (The less risky ARM-A loans continue to default) and banks have yet to start unloading their “shadow inventory” in an attempt to stay solvent. I believe this is already underway as we see-

Evidence -
One of THE stories of 2010 is the foreclosure mess involving MERS. 6.3 million vacant homes, this one is a slam dunk.

Points awarded (1 of 1)


Total points awarded for Part 1:  (5 of 6) 83% on the first half. Pretty outstanding with the only black eye being a result of shenanigans on behalf of the Obama administration and the Federal Reserve. It's ok, you can't prop it up indefinitely.

Massive Brawl Rocks Ukraine Parliament

US Economic Support Pillars are Breaking

Karl Denninger puts out some sobering observations on unemployment -

Holy crap!  Now that's a nasty number.  +893,000?!  Uh, wow.

And the bad news is where it is showing up - the majority of this is in new claims in the regular state figures.  The roll into EUC continues but that +548 up above says that a huge percentage of the people who claimed in the last few weeks "stuck" - that is, there were no material roll-offs from people finding jobs in the weeks leading up to Black Friday.

Remember folks, claims is a "fuzzy" number.  It tells you who claimed but it doesn't tell you who found jobs.  Well, now we know.  And now we also know where the unemployment stats for November, where we lost an actual 500,000 jobs on the household survey, came from. 

Oh, I know, I know..... Nobody could have seen it coming.

 FedEx -

FedEx reported earnings that broadly missed expectations.

Excluding special items, the company reported a profit of $1.16 a share. Analysts, on average, had anticipated earnings of $1.31 per share for the quarter ended on Nov. 30, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Oops.  Or is that UPS.  I guess we'll eventually find out.

Oh wait - higher oil prices are good for shipping companies, right?  You know, commodity costs?  One of the largest expenses for such a company?  Yeah, that's good for earnings.

Riiiiiiiight.

They got hit for a couple of percent premarket, although at the low it was much worse.  We'll see what happens once the stock starts trading.  Revenue was in fact up, and they're expecting a "strong" holiday and improving economy, and thus raised guidance.

We'll see.

And overall economic conditions -

In recap:

• Orders up materially while shipments are down. (Bawhahahaha we know where will end up right?)
  
• Prices paid skyrocketing while prices received are going up - but much slower.  More margin collapse evidence.
  
• Number of employees dropped big.

Headline sounds great, but the internals on the table?  Not so much.

The Real Effect
As was stated at the end of 2009 -

While I don't believe the Mad Max WTSHTF scenario will play out in 2010 fully, barring a game changing terror attack, at a bare minimum people are going to start noticing this huge white elephant in the middle of the room.

In general, 2010 will be the year that the situational blinders come off and everyone realizes that this is serious business here. Think of it as a game of musical chairs where there are 300 million players and only a million chairs and the leader is reaching for the volume knob and if you lose, you lose everything you own.

As if that isn't fun, 2011 will be much worse.

This has definitely been true for this year so far but for further year end review, you shall have to wait a few days.

Visa and Mastercard Get Blown Out of the Water

Credit takes one directly to the face -

Visa Inc. and MasterCard Inc. plunged more than 10 percent in New York trading after the Federal Reserve Board proposed rules that could slash debit-card interchange fees by 90 percent.

The new rules, posted today by the Fed on its website, may aid retailers and cut profit for lenders who reaped about $15 billion from interchange fees last year. Currently, card networks charge merchants a percentage of the purchase price, regardless of cost. The Fed rules would force networks to rely on transaction fees, which could be capped at 12 cents each.

The result could be an 80 percent to 90 percent drop in funds that Visa and MasterCard pass on to banks that issue cards, according to Tien-tsin Huang, an analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co. Jason Kupferberg, an analyst at UBS AG, said investors had been braced for a 40 percent to 60 percent reduction. Overall, Kupferberg wrote to clients, there are “more negatives than expected” in the proposed changes.

“The initial view is that it is negative all around,” wrote Scott Valentin, an analyst at FBR Capital Markets, in a note to clients today. “This significantly impacts the business model for the networks.”

Visa fell $9.75, or 13 percent, to $67.19 at 4 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, the most in two years. MasterCard, ranked second among card networks and based in Purchase, New York, dropped as much as 12 percent, its biggest one-day slide ever. MasterCard finished down $25.73, or 10 percent, at $223.49. James Issokson, a spokesman for MasterCard, had no immediate comment.

Discover Financial Services, which said it’s “premature to speculate about the ultimate impact,” dropped 3.1 percent to $18.53. New York-based American Express Co., which doesn’t rely on debit cards, fell 3.4 percent to $44.57.

The Real Effect
That little move cost Visa/Mastercard BILLIONS in market cap. So the question becomes is this a good thing or a bad thing? I would say both and neither.

Credit, or more specifically capital investment, is absolutely critical to making the economy grow. However the devil is always in the details in these sort of things.

1. A line of credit from Visa is not synonymous with capital investment.
1. This type of credit is often created via leverage.
2. Just because a company has a given business model, that does not mean that they should be protected by law.
1. For instance - The mafia launders money, something the government has declared illegal.
2. Pickpocketing would yield a decent return, but would ultimately leave all but the pickpockets destitute.
3. A company going out of business is not necessarily a bad thing. This allows poorly allocated resources to redeploy to more productive endeavors.
1. If Bob's puppy abuse service went out of business, most would rejoice.
4. Many companies are over leveraged and irresponsibly positioned in this debt saturated economy.
5. Visa and Mastercard are not the backbone of the American economy. Their failure, while disappointing to some, would allow others to fill the gap in a better, perhaps more ethical way.
6. A lack of "credit" will force consumers to expunge their debts and return to fiscal health.
1. This is necessary for economic recovery.

This move might cost these companies money, so what? The more important question is why are these institutions not free to bargain their own agreements with the credit companies? Further, scalping Americans a piece at a time is not a good business model. So, I find it good that these companies have to think outside of the box, bad they're being managed, and immaterial as the whether they stay in business.

Outside of that, this will not help the unemployment numbers and that, is bad.

Ron Paul : Bernanke is World's Greatest Counterfeiter!

England Dispenses With the Pretenses of Freedom

Just like the gun laws, surveillance cameras, GPS, neighborhood stazi, murders and roundabouts this will soon be coming to an American city near you -

UK police chief Sir Paul Stephenson is considering whether to ask the British government to ban protest marches altogether in response to last week’s student riots, a move that would place Britain under a de facto state of martial law.

“It is one of the tactics we will look at and something we will keep under review, and if we think it is the right thing to do then we will do it,” said the Metropolitan Police commissioner.

I'm guessing the whole "Off with their heads" was getting a little too close for comfort.

The article continues -

Although the establishment media in Britain dutifully blamed the protesters for the violent scenes witnessed during the demonstrations, it later emerged that police had been behind a number of provocations that caused the running street battles, including pulling a disabled man out of a wheelchair and dragging him across the street, as well as repeatedly beating protesters on the head with batons.

The use of “kettling” to confine protesters into a tight area has also been heavily criticized for only heightening rage amongst the demonstrators.

Stephenson is considering whether to use the Public Order Act in an attempt to ban marches, despite acknowledging the fact that such a move could only exacerbate the situation. Other proposals are to use water cannons to disperse demonstrators, as well as snatch squads that would literally abduct so-called “trouble-makers” off the streets.

Given the fact that police are being ordered to conduct themselves in ways that only further anger protesters, the overall agenda seems to be aimed at creating agitation that can subsequently be exploited to justify excessive force.

Banning protest marches would extend the already existing no-protest zone which encompasses the area around the Houses of Parliament in Westminster, to the entire country.

The Serious Organised Crime and Police Act (SOCPA) bans the right of protest (unless it is cleared by a commissioner 6 days in advance) within a 1km radius of the UK’s seat of government. The area covers the Houses of Parliament, Downing Street, most government ministries, St Thomas’s Hospital, part of the South Bank and Lambeth Palace.

The Real Effect
Of course we have already seen a portion of this happening already with our "Free Speech Zones" and other such nonsense. Yet the real point here is that the elite are tipping their hands. They are talking about outright tyranny. You won't have the right to protest, because they say you don't.

Liberty is generally killed by its natural enemy, safety. Or in this case, the mere appearance of.

Police Beat Wheelchair Bound Student - Interview With Jody McIntyre

Action Video of Greece Riots as Fire Bombs, Stones Fly in Athens

Auschwitz Survivor on Palestine

The Real Reason Why the "Terrorists" Hate US

Who would want this?

In a series of air strikes launched yesterday in the Baghlan Province in northern Afghanistan, the NATO forces destroyed a public school as well as killing 30 “suspected Taliban militants,” according to the provincial governor.

The governor termed the attack on the school an “accident,” and so far there have been no reports of civilian casualties from that particular attack. The identies of the 30 slain in the other strikes have yet to be announced, beyond their being “suspects.”

NATO and the Afghan government have been struggling with a growing Taliban presence in the province over the past several year. Baghlan, as with much of the rest of northeastern Afghanistan, had virtually no Taliban presence ahead of the 2001 US invasion.

NATO also has yet to discuss the attack on the school or to provide any sort of explanation as to how the apparent accident happened. The destruction of the school will likely fuel more public opposition to the war effort.

The Real Effect
All you have to be is a "suspect" (often because of payoffs that their less than respectable countryman take to finger them) and suddenly you're with Al-Quaeda. Think about this for a second:

1. We invade.
2. We ask the locals who the "bad guys" are. We offer them cash. LOTS of cash.
3. Because they "cooperate" the locals become the good guys, the others by virtue of being identified are "terrorists".
4. We bomb the "bad guys", repeatedly, taking a SCHOOL with it.
5. The locals resent the collateral damage and then side with the "bad guys" against the invaders.(Who wouldn't?)
6. The fact that there are resisters is fact enough to justify to the American public that we need to "Finish the job".
7. Repeat.

Can anyone see the inherit moral and logical problem with this scenario? Easy solution - Remove the invaders, no more problems. Ah, but this won't permit TRILLIONS in dollars of weapons sales, increased budgets and patriotic promotions eh?

End this garbage now. Bring the troops home.

"Washington’s Role Is To Serve The Banks" Says Spencer Bachus Incoming House Banking Chairman

Moody's to Cut U.S. Rating?

The game becomes deadly serious -

Moody's warned Monday that it could move a step closer to cutting the U.S. Aaa rating if President Obama's tax and unemployment benefit package becomes law.

The plan agreed to by President Obama and Republican leaders last week could push up debt levels, increasing the likelihood of a negative outlook on the United States rating in the coming two years, the ratings agency said.

A negative outlook, if adopted, would make a rating cut more likely over the following 12-to-18 months.

For the United States, a loss of the top Aaa rating, reduce the appeal of U.S. Treasuries, which currently rank as among the world's safest investments.

"From a credit perspective, the negative effects on government finance are likely to outweigh the positive effects of higher economic growth," Moody's analyst Steven Hess said in a report sent late on Sunday.

After Obama announced his plan, Treasury prices fell sharply in volatile trade last week and yields have hit a six-month high, in part due to concerns over the effect the package will have on government debt levels.

If the bill becomes law, it will "adversely affect the federal government budget deficit and debt level," Moody's said. 

The Real Effect
Like an avalanche, the U.S. debt situation is reaching an untenable position. The arrogance of not only the Federal government, but its people as well is incredible. The position that is continually put out by many is that the U.S. can't go bankrupt.

While the reality is that the U.S. is already bankrupt, there is a modicum of truthiness in the statement that it can't go bankrupt or perhaps more succinctly - The government won't allow themselves to declare bankruptcy. In some ways, who blames them? Would you want to be known as the individual that was running the show when things blew up? I don't think there are many who would. But regardless of how we feel about the situation, reality must be confronted.

The biggest issue facing this country is our level of national debt and the percentage of that is the odious debt that is owed to the insolvent banking cartel. This debt must be repudiated. First, it is not the fault nor responsibility of the U.S. citizens that it's representatives entered into fraudulent contracts without their permission. Further, there is no mathematical way to pay this off, short of massively inflating and then destroying ours and others countries. We must, like Iceland, declare the debt invalid, try and finally imprison the bankers and Reps who did this to us and then cut government down to size.

Sure, the bankers will cry, they will protest, they might even mobilize tanks but this is the only way this once great Republic will survive the coming years.

9 TRILLION Dollars Missing from Federal Reserve, Fed Inspector General Can't Explain

Gerald Celente: Biggest Bank Robbery Non-Stop!

Religious Flames are Flamed as a Tree Gets Cut Down

Today we have this quite interesting piece from the Mail -

The Holy Thorn Tree of Glastonbury has been chopped down in what is being seen by some as a deliberately anti-Christian act.

A feature of the skyline surrounding the Somerset town, the tree has been visited by thousands retracing the steps said to have been taken by Joseph of Arimathea, who some say was Jesus’ great uncle.

According to legend, Saint Joseph travelled to the spot after Christ was crucified, taking with him the Holy Grail of Arthurian folklore.

He is said to have stuck his wooden staff – which had belonged to Jesus – into the ground on Wearyall Hill before he went to sleep. When he awoke it had sprouted into a thorn tree, which became a natural shrine for Christians across Europe.

To add to its sacred status, the tree ‘miraculously’ flowered twice a year – once at Christmas and once at Easter. It survived for hundreds of years before it was chopped down by puritans in the Civil War, but secret cuttings of the original were taken and planted around the town.

It is from one of the new plants that a replacement tree was planted in the original spot over 50 years ago.

The Real Effect
Now this is quite interesting for myriads of reasons, most notably my prediction in 2006 that religious flames will be kindled -

The global planners are literally banking on this bait-and-switch tactic in order to drive most decent people into believing that 'the other side out to get us' to goad us into 'getting them before they get us'. One only needs to look at the flimsy excuses being offered in the official 9/11 story to see this idea in action. (Like many of the alleged hijackers are still alive.)

I believe that this has moved past the propaganda phase and has moved into the implementation phase where they will drive the world into a religious war in an attempt to harmonize the religions into peace. Problem, reaction, solution.

In addition I'd like to make the following general notes:

1. Notice how these events are almost always random and unseen? The culprits are rarely caught and when they an individual or group is marched in front of the camera, there is rarely any question as to whether they actually did it.
2. This tree is a symbol. Nothing more, nothing less. I am amazed at individuals that will rail about a symbol being destroyed and inevitably end up murdering to avenge the symbol. If the tree is sacred, how much more sacred is the bearer of God's image, human life? Case and point, how many Muslim civilians have slaughtered over the image of the twin towers?
3. This particular tree was a replant from 50 years ago.

We all need to calm down and investigate, save the screaming and yelling for the real villains - The Globalist Banking Cartel.

Anarchy in UK: Video of Prince Charles's car bottled in London's protests