Visa and Mastercard Get Blown Out of the Water

Credit takes one directly to the face -

Visa Inc. and MasterCard Inc. plunged more than 10 percent in New York trading after the Federal Reserve Board proposed rules that could slash debit-card interchange fees by 90 percent.

The new rules, posted today by the Fed on its website, may aid retailers and cut profit for lenders who reaped about $15 billion from interchange fees last year. Currently, card networks charge merchants a percentage of the purchase price, regardless of cost. The Fed rules would force networks to rely on transaction fees, which could be capped at 12 cents each.

The result could be an 80 percent to 90 percent drop in funds that Visa and MasterCard pass on to banks that issue cards, according to Tien-tsin Huang, an analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co. Jason Kupferberg, an analyst at UBS AG, said investors had been braced for a 40 percent to 60 percent reduction. Overall, Kupferberg wrote to clients, there are “more negatives than expected” in the proposed changes.

“The initial view is that it is negative all around,” wrote Scott Valentin, an analyst at FBR Capital Markets, in a note to clients today. “This significantly impacts the business model for the networks.”

Visa fell $9.75, or 13 percent, to $67.19 at 4 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, the most in two years. MasterCard, ranked second among card networks and based in Purchase, New York, dropped as much as 12 percent, its biggest one-day slide ever. MasterCard finished down $25.73, or 10 percent, at $223.49. James Issokson, a spokesman for MasterCard, had no immediate comment.

Discover Financial Services, which said it’s “premature to speculate about the ultimate impact,” dropped 3.1 percent to $18.53. New York-based American Express Co., which doesn’t rely on debit cards, fell 3.4 percent to $44.57.

The Real Effect
That little move cost Visa/Mastercard BILLIONS in market cap. So the question becomes is this a good thing or a bad thing? I would say both and neither.

Credit, or more specifically capital investment, is absolutely critical to making the economy grow. However the devil is always in the details in these sort of things.

1. A line of credit from Visa is not synonymous with capital investment.
1. This type of credit is often created via leverage.
2. Just because a company has a given business model, that does not mean that they should be protected by law.
1. For instance - The mafia launders money, something the government has declared illegal.
2. Pickpocketing would yield a decent return, but would ultimately leave all but the pickpockets destitute.
3. A company going out of business is not necessarily a bad thing. This allows poorly allocated resources to redeploy to more productive endeavors.
1. If Bob's puppy abuse service went out of business, most would rejoice.
4. Many companies are over leveraged and irresponsibly positioned in this debt saturated economy.
5. Visa and Mastercard are not the backbone of the American economy. Their failure, while disappointing to some, would allow others to fill the gap in a better, perhaps more ethical way.
6. A lack of "credit" will force consumers to expunge their debts and return to fiscal health.
1. This is necessary for economic recovery.

This move might cost these companies money, so what? The more important question is why are these institutions not free to bargain their own agreements with the credit companies? Further, scalping Americans a piece at a time is not a good business model. So, I find it good that these companies have to think outside of the box, bad they're being managed, and immaterial as the whether they stay in business.

Outside of that, this will not help the unemployment numbers and that, is bad.