2012 Predictions

Welcome to the 2012 Real Effect  predictions. What will 2012 hold in store for the world and the U.S. in particular? To answer this question is a daunting task and one that we strive to answer. For the last 6 months, concepts have been analyzed, positions questioned and rocks overturned to bring you the latest and greatest. Predictions are highlighted in bold. So, with that we're off to the predictions!

New for 2012!
Yearly Theme: Are we responsible for our own actions?
This question becomes the fundamental litmus test for most every action and decision in the future.

War - 2012
The idea of a World War moves into the mainstream by becoming a probability instead of a possibility. People begin to realize that the only way presented to get out of this will be to fight. Let us pray that they realize who the correct people to fight are.


War Starts With Civil War and a Resurgence of Nationalism
Civil war leads the way as regional conflicts devolve into national wars.
 
Nationalism takes center stage again as there is a temporary shift away from the "Union / Globalism" mentality in order to demonize and bury Nationalism once and for all. This can be observed in patriotic displays of loyalty to one's home country as the globalists demand fealty to their flag in an attempt to demonize it.

The draft discussion becomes prevalent again. "Not enough boots to go around" combined with talks of "National Pride" and "Supporting one's country"

Outright War 
Start of the Asiatic war (Late Q3 - Q4) - With the US being over committed, it can't back up its positions in other countries, the East sees this and starts moving. Fires break out faster then they can be put out.  

Theaters of war

• Asia East - The riots and revolutions that the citizens have been participating in need an outlet. The rulers will direct this to local conflicts. Police crackdowns will be brutal, efficient and deadly.
• Singapore - Led by an outright collapse in the market there.
• China - Peace is easy to keep when you can throw money at it.
• North/South Korea - Outright skirmishes, possibly full war. The new ruler of North Korea becomes convinced that he needs to demonstrate his and the country's resolve and the time is ripe.
• Western Asia - especially deteriorate
• Pakistan - Civil war OR expulsion of US troops starts in earnest. (Q2 - Q3)
• Afghanistan - As the US moves into other regions, the MEK begins targeting remaining US troops.
• Mideast
• Syria  - It appears that the road to Iran lies through Syria. The US will try to draw in Hezbollah through "regime change". (Q1)
• Iran - Time will tell on this one. Iran is a tough nut to crack as opinion is running contrary to Western interests here. IF the US gets Syria, Iran is next. There has been a lot of posturing in 2011, but no one has been able to capitalize. Look for the moral justification route being presented via Iranian "guerrilla forces" "destabilizing Syria and attacking US or NATO "peacekeepers".
• Iraq - Destabilizes into sectarian violence with the north being especially unruly.
• Africa
• Uganda
• North America
•  US
• Terror attacks - Like the 888 event, London's 2012 Olympics
• Mexico - The War On Drugs steps up on the borders in Texas, Arizona, New Mexico and California 
• This authorizes a FEMA reaction to stem the violence. We might get to see U.N. refugee action (This is already starting to an extent)
• South America
• Venezuela

Economics
The major economic focus shifts dramatically from Europe to Asia. The economic downturn moves to Asia, setting the stage for war with these countries later. Stagflation takes hold most everywhere

• Asia
• China/Taiwan/US - Chinese economy fails (Even now, the government is desperately trying to cover it up)
• Russia, China
• Europe
• The European Union implodes completely.
• Global TARP (EFSF) fails as firewall after firewall is breached
• Ratings Agencies continue to downgrade countries and municipalities, not based on any metrics or logical sense, but rather out of a need to recognize the already obvious collapse that is in motion.
• It may cease to exist nominally as the EU, but it's Phoenix Transformation still awaits.
• North America
• Canada staggers 
• Their housing market collapses by 10 - 20%. (Already starting)
•  The United States
• Asset prices file in giant fits (20 - 40%) as positions are sold to protect themselves 
• Commodities
• Oil - Oil has solidified above $100. $130 - $150 is the next target with a Iran led upside of $200 - $250.
• Gold - Gold and silver have temporarily bottomed. Gold takes out $1700 easily and quickly closes in on $1800. After it breaches $1900, there is a sell off as the wild market fluctuations come into play. (Q1 +  Q2-) Target range is $2000 - $2300.
• Silver - Silver takes off like a lion again but also suffers just as badly. Initial stop is at $48 as it takes out the previous high. At this point speculators pile on and take it to $75. After this it gets destroyed back to the low $50 range.
• Copper - Decouples from industry and becomes a poor man's silver investment. (10 - 20% gains)
• Cotton
•  US Dollar officially goes inflationary. Printing comes in one form or another
• Posts first official negative GDP. (In response, the market tanks)
• In response a Constitutional Crisis emerges (In truth it has existed for a long time)
• More "desperate" Keynesian solutions are floated as a dramatic attempt to "shock" the economy back to life. If enacted, it will ultimately fail. 
• Citizens favor giving less people more power to "fix" it (Note - This is one of the goals these bloodsuckers want) 
• Social programs are demanded in an attempt to 'restore America' but the economic argument now trumps 'societal values'. This leads to screeching about the inherit "injustice" present in the system as the freebies come to an end in austerity. 
• Things break down. As resources continue to dive, local alliances are formed to compete for these resources.
•  Corporations now rule
• Repatriate the money - Corporations attempt to hide behind the Congress and demand a return of 'offshore funds'.
• At least one state (Illinois?) seriously contemplates bankruptcy (In the end it ends up being bailed out by the Fed)
• Food stamp use soars
• The U.S. College bubble begins to pop as longstanding institutions begin to slash their budgets to remain solvent. Some even discuss closing outright. (Start of the "education crisis".) This will be a long recovery as the perception that "education" = "money and success" will be difficult to break.
• Student loans start to slow (Rate) Teachers will lead the calls for more funding to be thrown at colleges in an attempt to "save education".
• Existing home sales (SAAR) plummet by at least 10% with 15-20% being the more likely range. (4.5 million units to a bottom of 3.3 million units) Certain areas that were big on expansion before the crash, begin to resemble (Chinese) ghost towns. Eventually, gangs move into these areas abandoned by the local populace. 
• Unemployment 
• Unemployment Weekly Claims rise again (450,000 to 525,000) range. (2Q)
• Unemployment Rate - Note: In 2011 I intentionally predicted a rise in the rate along with all of my other stunning positions for one reason. This is a non-lose scenario. If I predicted it would stay the same, it would obviously be correct. However, seeing my stunning clairvoyance on every other issue, why would I be so wrong on this one? Simple, because the government is fudging the numbers. By inaccurately predicting a rise, when one did not occur, it stands in sharp contrast to all the other prediction. One is left pondering - Just why is this number staying the same?

Culture
The mantra "The future is our hope" begins to become center to the recovery.  What is lost on everyone is that in order for this concept to work, you have to sacrifice now. You can't borrow from tomorrow at an inflated rate (interest) and expect tomorrow to be better when the underlying fundamentals have NOT changed.

Men want to marry less due to the parasitical nature of women. This results in a "marriage/woman crisis" down the road. Churches begin to brow beat men into "growing up" and "accepting responsibility". (Already happening) This leads to a further schism in the churches as many churches become void of patriarchal leadership and shift aggressively to matriarchal influence. (This does not mean that men will not lead, but rather the male leadership will be massively influenced to the "injustices" being carried out on women. They will then accordingly enforce the desires of the female population.)

Feminism takes one in the eye as mothers decide it's not economically worth it to work, but would rather stay home and raise their children.

Metrosexual males start losing market value as they begin to be perceived as weak in the eyes of women everywhere as society stops valuing "fashion".


Crime nationally rises dramatically. + 20 - 30 %(Theft skyrockets, homicides increase and assault is up. Suicides increase.)

Police become a gang (Us vs. Them mentality intensifies) Small - medium riots emerge as the police overplay their authority. (Nationalize?) The cost of policing goes up substantially due to hazard pay, deaths and low enrollment. (Already starting to happen.) This leads to turf wars - (Black vs black, black vs Mexican, cop vs gang, cop vs Fed)


Customers begin to get violent. The mantra has been get more for less these last 30 years, now individuals who have heard this their whole loves will run into the laws of supply and demand. (McDonald's raises their price of the $1 menu)


Note: I reserve the right to edit these predictions until January 7, 2011.

2011 Predictions - Second Half Review

As 2011 draws to a close and 2012 comes into view, we here at The Real Effect take stock of the predictions that have transpired over the last year.

To be sure, this was a stunner of a year for us. Not only were the predictions even more specific, there were tons more of them. For instance, PIIGS had dominated the news in 2010, but the newly created EFSF wasn't even on anyone's radar, let alone the thought of most of Europe detonating.

Of course we wasted little time in pimping ourselves out, noting the massive oil gains, silver gains, and a comprehensive look at all of them at the close of the first half.

Time for review - (This is going to be a work in progress due to the enormity of the research required.)
I redacted much of the filler material and left most of the "meat" in the post. August responses are in red.

Total: (31/42 - 74%)

Economy

• Europe detonates, especially in the east - (Occurring now. +1)
• Eastern Europe sinks to crisis level with reports of food shortages, rioting and widespread Depression. (+1)
• Hungary (10 Yr 8.02%) may be the first to go.
• Belarus is the first to go. 
• Slovenia is down too. 
• Romania is swirling  
• Slovakia blows 
• Latvia has bank runs 
• Western Europe contracts massively, putting extraordinary pressure on the Euro. (+1) But the call out of Belgium isn't about revoking the Euro, rather about the preservation of the European Union and the need to 'pull together'. I would expect that we could begin to see propaganda calling for a United Europe in the face of "x" (economic crisis, terror, war). Ultimately in the endgame, foreign creditors feel the massive pinch as they try to protect their investments, but the lack of a favorable response by the people will lead to war with the far east, but not yet.
• Bonds play an absolutely critical role with the European Financial Stability Facility taking center stage. (If that was any more accurate, I would be lethal. +1) The days of "free money" are coming to an end.
• Germany  (10 Yr 2.958%)- This will probably lead to massive protests by the Germans over forced foreign austerity.
• Greece (Bonds - 12.01%) (5 year - 100%, 3 Year - 28.6%, 2 year 92.98%, 1 year 150%) Greek banks failing, bank runs.
• Ireland (10 Yr 9.058%) ( 2 year - 23.3%, Stealing pensions?)
• Portugal (10 Yr 6.682%) (2 year 19.112%, 5 year 16.214%, stealing pensions)
• Italy (10 Yr 4.8%) (2 year 6.38%, 5 year 7.827%,  Credit status is on a downgrade review. 10 Year 6.77%)
• Spain (10 Yr 5.453%) (2 year 3.872%, 5 year 6.156%)
• France (10 Yr 3.32%) (French banks failing and more)
• Belgium (Dexia fails)

 

 Greek bank run....

• United States
• No recovery. The public is aware, but the media begins to be aware that all of the so-called recovery talk was nothing more than statistical nonsense.(No recovery and LOTS of crisis. +1 )
• Consumer spending hits a wall and continues to decline moderately.(Reports are all falling.  +1)
• The country faces the worst Christmas in at least 25 years. (I haven't found the numbers on this yet. +0/1)
• As this plays out throughout the first quarter, this kills off many struggling chains or at a bare minimum, (barring "bailouts") sets the stage for later Corporate Death. (Even Wal-Mart is getting hit among other stores closing.)
• Massive Unemployment U-3 goes to 11%, U-6 to 18.5%  (Yes, I know I'm asking for it) (The trend is finally moving back up to 9.2%, not 11% yet, but when the government bond bubble pops, it will get there in a hurry. +0/1)
• The Employment rate continues to plunge (Yup, less people in the workforce. +1)
  
• Millions more people fall off the unemployment rosters.(Worst since 1984)
• Actual Inflation is rampant and MASSIVE (+10-20%) (OFFICIAL inflation approached 4% repeatedly. +1)
• Commodities - MASSIVE increases in cost. (+1)
• Oil becomes a political issue again (Due to being dollar driven) It will easily top $100 a barrel and probably aim for $150 again. (Oil hit $114.18 in May,  hugged $100 for a few months, briefly collapsed to the support level $75 (Euro crisis) and is rapidly approaching $100 again. +1)
• Gold - $1800 - $2000, Silver - $40 - 60 (Gold hit $1900 - Hold at $1700, silver $48 - Hold at $32. Right smack dab in the middle of both! +1)
• Expect a massive rally in the first quarter of 2011, cooling off for the summer and then another strong rally at the back half of the year.(The first two happened, the rally appears to be being circumvented somehow. Detonating MF Global?)
• Silver becomes especially difficult to physically source as the Comex cracks and demand goes up. (Perhaps hitting $40 in Q1, then cooling down until winter) It's been speculated that the MF Global default was to avert a Comex default.
• Cotton - Clothing becomes expensive. This will eat away at many "cheap" clothing alternatives like Wal-Mart and Target. (Nymex saw a 30 - 40% jump in the 1st half of the year, to only fall hard on the second half. +.5/1)
• Food becomes more expensive, shortages continue. (+1)
  

• Local governments collapse
• Municipalities disband and declare bankruptcy to avoid liabilities. (The bond market is collapsing, Chicago and suburbs are close. Some municipalities have declared bankruptcy including Harrisburg, PA. Others are close behind. +1)
  
• State governments stagger
• Deficits swell as many budgets were predicated upon the "summer of recovery" which turns out to be less of a recovery and more of a flat-line. (We are learning now that many budgets were in fact based on growth scenarios in the range of 5-8% in some cases. Absurd. +1)
• Federal government surges nominally. While appearing to die, the federal government starts consuming everything in a dire attempt to stay solvent. (Sink or swim mentality)
• Pensions are gradually shifted to state/Federal funds. (Congress defaults, or illegally default , Portugal is taking pensions +1)
  
• Bond rates collapse further (Having a hand in this is Russia dumping US Treasuries +1)
  
• FDIC is still insolvent and its line of credit at the Treasury Dept. legally runs out (+0/1)
• Food stamp rates will continue to soar. (A new record of 45.8 million people and in increase in the rate of new applicants. +1)

• Foreclosure-gate rocks the world (It is entering the next phase, lawsuits. +1)
  
• Housing prices decline nominally by at least 5% (As Vox Day points out this is the amount of the 2009 tax credit) more likely 10% and perhaps it gets as bad as 20%. (It's safe to say we got 5%, but there appears to be a dead cat bounce going on at the moment and with homes sales being revised down massively by the NAR, the contraction is coming. +1) (On a side note, "since the fourth quarter of 2007, C&D loans are down $374.3 billion or 59.5%.")
• H.R. 3808 is resurrected by the Republicans and signed into law. (This will be seen as bipartisanship)(+0/1)
• Individuals and companies attempt to protect their capitol by investing in anything that is inflation proof. (Silver and Gold are starting another bull run that will be eclipsed when QE3 is announced.)
• Minor to moderate bank runs (This is true in Greece and most of the Eastern European countries, no overt signs here yet. +0.5/1)
  

• Stocks sell off nominally, finally. (When priced to inflation, which is absolutely necessary, the markets are not only down nominally for the year, but tanking to the tune of 5%. While not a massive plunge, the S&P ended up down for the year. +1)
  
•  Many of these institutions are holding a certain "value" on their books with regards to housing prices. If these values start plummeting, the banks will either be forced to seek another bailout or get crushed.
• HFT (High Frequency Trading) becomes a mainstream term due to increasing exposure to the concept by the mainstream media. (Adobe)  (While increasing in discussion, it has hardly breached the mass consciousness. +0/1)

War
With much of the fallout from "The Currency War" devastating the global economies, the action leaves the banks and hits the courts eventually ending on the battlefield. (More towards 2012) (Starting already with 5 US wars. +1)

• Worldwide, America is blamed for the global economic fallout.  (CDS, MBS securities) (Russia and China continue to point fingers. +1)
• This stokes anti-American/liberty resentment which will find a place to mature later.
  
• A world war by the end of 2012 (See the Religious War Series for details)  (+0/N/A)
• North Korea/South Korea trade volleys, but do NOT go to war. (The North is flexing its nuclear muscles multiple times, the South is shooting at what it thinks are North Korean passenger planes. +1)

Politics

• The neoconservative version of the Tea Party takes its seats and promptly sells/blows out. (+1)
• To be sure there will be plenty of grandstanding about "austerity", but sacred cows like defense spending, corporate welfare and education will be supported by the NeoTeas. (We saw this recently with the support for the debt ceiling increase. +1)
• Critical legislation and opportunities (Like an End the Fed bill) are torpedoed by the appropriate sides.(+0/1)
• I will go so far as to say that a major 'patriot' will betray the movement. (Here you go, Mitt Romney is our man. Haley endorses Mitt, Taxed Enough Already?, Romney. +1)
  
• January - A lot of rhetoric, but not a lot of results. Talks by Republicans will resume of obstructionism and "dirty politics" by Obama. (+1)
• Presidential Race heats up - May?
• The third party "change" meme becomes more palatable, but not yet as frustrations lead to a party that will eventually become the Global Party
• The cry will go out that 'In this hour, we cannot afford to be divided.' (+0/1)

Religion
After a massive downturn over the last 5 years, the remnants of much of the "religious right" get fed up with the left's "societal engineering".  This leads to the following -

• Nationalistic denominationalism - The Christians return to the forefront with a vengeance as the Glenn Beck rally/Palin crowd embrace "Americana" nationalism and go after the infidels. (Look at that, there's Beck, whipping up the Christians and promoting war. Looks like Rick Perry is getting in on the act as well. +1)
  
• The "founder's intent"/"What this country was founded on" ends up fueling a nationalistic religious fervor that seeks to incarcerate and make war anyone who doesn't see their light. (+0/1 Perhaps a bit early on that one.)

But the rub lies in the fact that the left and the right are destined to destroy one another and lead to a new left/right party. (+0/1 - I don't know that we'll get this before 2012.)


Culture

• Worldly obsession with 'otherworldly' entities picks up steam but does not reach critical mass. Such items will include:
• Aliens/Project Bluebeam (+0/1)
• Angel/Demon gates (+0/1)
• Of particular note is the relative juggernauts that the Denver Broncos and Green Bay Packers have become this season. Both teams are helmed by devout Christians.
• In reaction to rampant criminality, virtues become fashionable/marketable again.
• Crime increases - The desperate lower class sees the upper class as the reason for their suffering. Except the middle class will be their target, not the bankers. (Witness the riots in Wisconsin. #OWS in the second half.)

Healthcare
As Obamacare takes hold, in order to make the "system" solvent, the Government moves to do the following:

• The licensing and eventual banning of vitamins and nutritional supplements. (Competition is a sin) (New FDA guidelines get us partway there. Banning of more supplements. +1/1)
• Healthcare shortages are realized (Medicare is eyed up) as workers retire early en-masse in order to avoid being part of the system. Doctors especially become more scarce as new recruits refuse to enter the field. (And there is the evidence that doctors are leaving. +1/1)
• A black market for health care becomes viable. (+0/1)

Note: This post will be updated as information becomes available.

An Indirect Metric of Paul's Popularity

Notice how Kelly Clarkson, after praising candidate Ron Paul was rewarded in the market. From Amazon -

The Real Effect 
This is a very easy thing to understand. Ron Paul is a legitimate man that stands in stark contrast to most of the past and all of the current crop of presidential candidates. He is genuine, he is honest and most critically, he's consistent.

Kelly Clarkson expressed genuine support for a genuine candidate. This in turn caused people to support her of their own accord! Not in some crazed PR manipulated set piece where you promise the world to people if they just go buy her album. This is genuine market growth in action and the type of organic response that is sorely needed if this country is going to rebuild itself. Do not underestimate your power or the combined power of others.

Above all this proves that if you are true to truth, you will be rewarded by it in this life or the next.

U.S Poking Around Iranian Wargames, False Flag Imminent?

Beware Misleading Articles

An exercise in perception -

Iran's navy chief warned Wednesday that his country can easily close the strategic Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, the passageway through which a sixth of the world's oil flows.

It was the second such warning in two days. On Tuesday, Vice President Mohamed Reza Rahimi threatened to close the strait, cutting off oil exports, if the West imposes sanctions on Iran's oil shipments.

In response, the Bahrain-based U.S. 5th Fleet's spokeswoman warned that any disruption "will not be tolerated." The spokeswoman, Lt. Rebecca Rebarich, said the U.S. Navy is "always ready to counter malevolent actions to ensure freedom of navigation."

The Real Effect
Let's examine this shall we?

For starters, notice how the article and it's content is summarized for you? This is a convenient way of framing your comprehension of the facts being presented to you. (i.e. - Iran, the aggressor against the U.S.) This is designed to help you interpret the latter content in a different manner than what is actually being presented. (i.e. - U.S., the aggressor against Iran)

But before we examine the front half of the article, let's examine the U.S. position presented

Western nations are growing increasingly impatient with Iran over its nuclear program. The U.S. and its allies have accused Iran of using its civilian nuclear program as a cover to develop nuclear weapons.

Note the word "accused". In the past, Iraq was accused of getting uranium yellowcake from Nigeria. This is the assessment that helped support the war which ultimately ended up being bogus. (Read as fraudulent) In this instance, if there was material proof that such a program was active, it would be waved from coast to coast at this point. It either doesn't exist or isn't strong enough to warrant a war.

Given the lack of evidence thus far, how has the U.S. responded?

The U.S. Congress has passed a bill banning dealings with the Iran Central Bank, and President Barack Obama has said he will sign it despite his misgivings.

and

The bill could impose penalties on foreign firms that do business with Iran's central bank. European and Asian nations import Iranian oil and use its central bank for the transactions

Now, here is the critical portion of the article that gives us the proper context.

Iran has adopted an aggressive military posture in recent months in response to increasing threats from the U.S. and Israel that they may take military action to stop Iran's nuclear program.

Iran is being existentially threatened, therefore they are naturally responding with threats of their own.

Iran's navy chief warned...

More then likely the use of the word "warned" is to create the perception that there is an outright naked threat on behalf the Iranian nation. The use of this word could be called inflammatory because the proceeding does not follow the inclusion of that word. (At least in the manner that it is being presented.)

...that his country can easily close the strategic Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Persian Gulf...

Saying something is possible is not tantamount to saying it is probable let alone a declaration of intent. In this instance, you have a sovereign country, Iran, that is already being targeted by destabilization efforts, sanctions, threats of war and a possible embargo on a necessary energy source (refined gas) and support for the nation. In this manner, Iran is acting consistently with a nation attempting to protect their "national interests".

In short, be careful what you read and how.

Ron Paul IS Winning

Polls
Nevada Primary Poll - 12/22/2011 (3rd Place)
Mitt Romney 33.1%, Newt Gingrich 29.2%, Ron Paul 12.7%

California Straw Poll - 9/18/2011 (1st Place)
Ron Paul 44.9%, Rick Perry 29.3%, Mitt Romney 8.8%,

MSNBC Reagan Debate Poll - 9/7/2011 (1st Place)
Ron Paul 52.7%, Mitt Romney 16.3%, Rick Perry 13.6%

Gallup Republican Poll - 8/25/2011 (3rd Place)
Rick Perry 29%, Mitt Romney 17% (fell 6%), Ron Paul 13%, Michelle Bachmann 10% (fell 3%)

Azimuth Research Group Texas Poll - 8/17/11 (1st place)
Ron Paul 22%, Rick Perry 17%

Ames Iowa Straw Poll - 8/13/11 (2nd place)
Michele Bachmann 4,823, Ron Paul 4,671, Tim Pawlenty 2,293


Rasmussen Pre-Poll - 8/9/11 (3rd place)
Ron Paul placed third with 16%, following Mitt Romney at second with 21%, and Michele Bachmann in the lead at 22%.

USA TODAY/Gallup Poll - 8/8/11 (3rd place)
Ron Paul at third place among GOP contenders on a national level, with 14%. Second place was Texas Governor, Rick Perry with 17% and leading the field nationally is Mitt Romney with 24%. Michele Bachmann places a close fourth with 13%.

CPAC Poll - 2/16/11 (1st Place)
Ron Paul 30%, Mitt Romney 23%, Gary Johnson 6%

CPAC Poll 2010 (1st Place)
Ron Paul 31%, Mitt Romney 22%, Gary Johnson 6% , Sarah Palin 7%

CPAC Poll 2009 (3rd Place)
20% Mitt Romney, 14% Bobby Jindal, 13% Ron Paul

Note: This is a resource and will be updated as necessary.

Merry Christmas Iran - It's On Like Donkey Kong

Feliz navidad, uh...happy Bombmas and stuff cuz nothing celebrates the birth of the Lord better then taking out a countries fuel supplies -

The Iranian news agency IRNA reported today that a U.S. missile hit an oil depot in the southwest village of Abadan on Wednesday. IRNA said British and American jets had entered Iranian airspace several times.

In addition to the oil depot attack, two rockets reportedly hit the village of Manyuhi near the border of Iraq’s al-Faw Peninsula near the Persian Gulf and the Iraqi city of Basra.

“In the border city of Arvand-Kenar, the invading American and British airplanes violated the airspace of the Islamic Republic of Iran three times,” a commander told the Islamic Republic News Agency.

The Real Effect
If this is in fact a legitimate story, look for the next set of chess pieces to start moving. I think it's going to be difficult to get Iran to react overtly at first because they know full well that the US will try and paint them as the aggressor. Therefore my assumption is that they may try and get the IAEA in the country sooner in an attempt to call NATO's hand.

Iran also announced on Thursday its envoy to the Vienna-based United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency will meet with the agency’s top nuclear inspector in the first week of January to arrange a visit to Iran as soon as possible. “As far as we are concerned his team can come as soon as they are ready,” said Ali Asghar Soltanieh.

If that's not possible or the hawks in Iran have their way, it's safe to assume that Iran will start directing their resources to take shots at US troops the world over in an attempt to start fires everywhere and destabilize the US military. Watch Syria, Lebanon, parts of Pakistan and specifically the Gulf as Iran stages new exercises.

Iran on Thursday announced it will hold a military exercise beyond the Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Persian Gulf. The exercise may place Iranian navy vessels within proximity of U.S. warships in the area.

According to the Associated Press, the announced Iranian exercise is Iran’s latest show of strength in the face of mounting international criticism over its controversial nuclear program.

Terrorism Charges Happening In the US

The hyper-spastic reactions continue -

An American citizen from Boston suburb was convicted on Tuesday on terrorism charges, but the charges were loosely defined and the verdict may represent a significant blow to free speech rights.

Federal prosecutors claimed that Tarek Mehanna, 29, traveled to Yemen in 2004 with the hope of training as a terrorist and going on to fight American soldiers in Iraq. He failed to find any training camps, but returned home and allegedly promoted al Qaeda by writing about violent jihad against U.S. foreign policy on the Internet.

Mehanna and his lawyers instead claimed that he traveled to Yemen to receive training to become an Islamic scholar and that his writings on the Internet amounted to free speech.

The Real Effect
Never mind the fact that we're ALL terrorists under Section 802 of the Patriot Act, this is further justification for case law that will be used in ever increasing definitions against the American populace during the coming Globalist Coup Civil War. Why would there be a war? Because they're going to take your goods of course.

Update: You better not investigate a farm, you terr'ist, else we turn yer house into a glass parking lot!

The FBI Joint Terrorism Task Force has kept files on activists who expose animal welfare abuses on factory farms and recommended prosecuting them as terrorists, according to a new document uncovered through the Freedom of Information Act.

Something gives me this feel there's going to be a whole lot of these sorts of things coming out of the woodwork.

U.S. Citizen Assasinations - Coming to a Town Near You

Begining to understand where we are going yet or is it still tinfoil hat time -

Turley said yesterday on C-Span (starting at 15:50):
President Obama has just stated a policy that he can have any American citizen killed without any charge, without any review, except his own. If he’s satisfied that you are a terrorist, he says that he can kill you anywhere in the world including in the United States.
Two of his aides just … reaffirmed they believe that American citizens can be killed on the order of the President anywhere including the United States.
You’ve now got a president who says that he can kill you on his own discretion. He can jail you indefinitely on his own discretion

The Real Effect
Lest you think this is isolated, I cite the following so you can follow the rationale -

Lawmakers in Louisiana are calling for National Guard troops to patrol the streets of New Orleans after a toddler was killed in a drive-by shooting. The last time troops were involved in domestic law enforcement in the state, they were used to confiscate legally owned firearms in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.

Think of the military as sharks. They are really good at eating and if you have an abundance of something that needs to be eaten, well, you're in luck. Do you really want to open a swimming pool with sharks?

"But wait!" you say "Think of it, there will be no fish in the pool because the sharks will eat them all."
True. But there will also be no swimmers because they will either leave or get eaten.

Such is the case with all military, if you have a need to bust heads and blow things up, they're your man and they will perform admirably. But the military, especially today's military, is not a peace keeping force. They are occupiers and that is what they will do, occupy, disarm and blow things up.

Is this a good response to a shooting??? It is if you want to kill people. History indicates that these actions will escalate the violence, not end it.

Republicans That Respect Neither the Republic Nor Democratic Reform

I present to you, Abject Lunacy of the Day!

Conservatives and Republican elites in the state are divided over who to support for the GOP nomination, but they almost uniformly express concern over the prospect that Ron Paul and his army of activist supporters may capture the state’s 2012 nominating contest — an outcome many fear would do irreparable harm to the future role of the first-in-the-nation caucuses.

“It would make the caucuses mostly irrelevant if not entirely irrelevant,” said Becky Beach, a longtime Iowa Republican who helped Presidents Bush 41 and Bush 43 here.“It would have a very damaging effect because I don’t think he could be elected president and both Iowa and national Republicans wouldn’t think he represents the will of voters.”

Who cares what you think.

“I don’t think any candidate perverting the process in that fashion helps [the caucuses] in any way,” said Iowa House Speaker Kraig Paulsen, adding that he didn’t know if that’s necessarily how Paul would win.

Somehow I get the feeling that if Romney won that would be a different quote

“They’ll all go back and vote for Obama,” predicted Beach.

You again? Go away....

“If we empower somebody who turns around and elects Obama, then that’s a major problem for the caucuses,” said Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa).

Nice try King, Paul doesn't elect Obama, the people do. And if the they relect Obama, it's because you failed to present a viable candidate. (Oh my, that has a nice ring to it.)

“People are going to look at who comes in second and who comes in third,” said Gov. Terry Branstad. “If [Mitt] Romney comes in a strong second, it definitely helps him going into New Hampshire and the other states.”

The Real Effect

Nice Governer Branstad. Did you just undermine the efficacy of your own primaries for political reasons?!? Iowa, why do you have this reject in here? As I stated in another venue yesterday, watch him win on January 3rd and then they promptly start talking about who came in second.  

 

This matter is simple, either the primary is legitimate or it is not. If it is illegitimate, then why are we holding it at a substantial cost to taxpayers and if it is legitimate, then why are we trying to pretend someone else won? This only undermines the electoral process and creates inherent instability. More importantly, this further reveals that the Republican party is not interested in "We the People..." but in truth is interested solely in "We the Party..."

This raises a serious question that needs to be examined further - Will the GOP overtly attempt to undermine the democratic process if Paul wins? Will they attempt to portray the situation as a "do over"? If so, America could be facing a far more grave Constitutional crisis at the hands of the Neocons who cry foul over Obama's usurpation.

To Those With Thin Skin - Either Examine Your Motives or Accept That You've Fallen

Rationalization seems to be the primary reason why people 'turn to the darkside' -

The Real Effect
I can hear the protests now, '...but...but...the priest was ruled out of order.' Folks, this is the scam that is being run against us consistently and it's working to a large degree. Some of our "representatives" are attempting to circumvent the rules by trying to legally remove their own shackles. It is for this precise reason that these fools were shackled in the first place lest our checkbook and hides know no end to their... cough...benevolence.

This is why rules and procedures and laws are put in place, so that one entity cannot abuse another or at the very least the situation can be redressed. But what redress is available when your own 'servants' have raided your storehouses and have set themselves up as your lords?

The citizens of this country must remain vigilant, this is a dark time in which the globalists are seeking to overthrow, via a legal coup if possible, the stated desires of its populace. These sort of instances must not be allowed to stand.

Ron Paul Gets Summarily Dismissed By "Republicans"

You would think, given their reaction to Dr. Paul, that the guy is Satan incarnate -

The Iowa primary is widely acknowledged as a hugely influential indication of who the eventual victor will be in the Republican race. Two of the last three winners have gone on to become the successful nominee. But according to Fox News pundit Chris Wallace, if Ron Paul wins on January 3rd – it doesn’t count.

“The Ron Paul people are not going to like my saying this,” said Wallace. “But to a certain degree, it will discredit the Iowa caucuses because, rightly or wrongly, I think most of the Republican establishment thinks he’s not going to end up as the nominee. So therefore, Iowa won’t count.”

 The Real Effect

Could you be any more obvious? The man is seen as one of the most conservative individuals not only of this current Congress, but of the century. He's a doctor, he's a statesman, he's intelligent, he's consistent and most importantly HE DOESN'T LIE TO YOU. The Neocons put up candidate after candidate that claims to be a George Washington, a Defender of the People's Rights and The Most Important Person in the Most Important Position in the Most Important Election...EVAH!!!! The Great Mass hope Scott Brown...anyone, anyone!?! (Does Brown remind anyone of Romney?) Dr. Paul will be that man. He's shown it again and again and our country desperately needs his character.

What this consistently demonstrates is not as much the electability of Dr. Paul, but the character of those who oppose him. The main point of opposition being relegated to a stance on a country that no one here governs! Yet, the tired old mantras march ever forward... 

He's unelectable...
His lack of support of Israel bothers me...
His foreign policy bothers me...


News flash! We're broke! A continuation of this tired interventionist policy is going to gain us a World War, several smaller wars, economic bankruptcy and most importantly millions dead. Where is the compassion in that position? Where is the Pro-Life culture?!?

That's right, you'd rather engage in the new Amerikan sacrament, bombing brown people!

US troops surrounding the Syrian border?

We're Not In Iran, We're Not In...Ok, We're In Iran

As if this shouldn't be completely obvious even to a casual observer by now -

Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, in an exclusive interview with Fox News, said that the stealth drone campaign along the Iran-Afghanistan border will "absolutely" continue despite the loss of a valuable and sophisticated drone to Iran.

The mysterious loss of the RQ-170 Sentinel drone has revealed not only that the U.S. was spying on Iran, but also that the program was being run from Shindad Air Base in western Afghanistan.

Panetta would not comment directly on what that drone was doing over Iran, but he said the U.S. military has no plans to halt the drone operation out of western Afghanistan.

I'm not a betting man, but if pushed, I'm guessing the drones have something to do with this -

As the US completes its final withdrawal from Iraq, American special forces troops have been diverted to positions in Jordan opposite a Syrian tank concentration building up across the kingdom's northern border, debkafile's military and intelligence sources report.

As of last Thursday, military convoys, air transports and helicopters have been lifting US troops across the border from Iraq. They have been deployed in position to ward off a possible Syrian invasion in the light of President Bashar Assad's warning that he would set the entire Middle East on fire if the pressure on his regime to step down persisted.

The Real Effect

Now what would US force possibly be doing in Jordan? Could they be thinking of invading Syria to provoke Iran? Naaaaah...

It looks like this is going to turn into one of those "Who shot first?" incidents.

Update: Does Israel know something?

“Basically, it’s inevitable,” Barak said in a telephone interview before flying Wednesday to Washington for meetings with Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and other administration officials. “The Assad family, through their own behavior, have lost their last drop of legitimacy and put themselves beyond the point of no return with their brutal slaughter of their own people. He has ceased to be something relevant.”

“It might take many weeks,” Barak added, “but it’s not a matter of months or years.”

In a separate interview, Moshe Ya’alon, the minister of Strategic Affairs, said: “It’s a matter of time and bloodshed before we will witness Assad’s departure. That is our assessment.”

Mitt Romney in Worcester 2002 "My views are progressive"

Mideast Notes - Things are Heating Up, Again

Troops are appearing near Syria -

Whistleblower activist Sibel Edmonds reported on Sunday that “foreign military groups, estimated at hundreds of individuals,” have taken up positions in the city of al-Mafraq in northern Jordan on the Syrian border.

An update on Edmonds’ blog, Boiling Frogs, states that a “journalist with a major mainstream media publication was told by his editors that there would be no coverage or follow up on these developments.”

The presence of foreign troops were also reported by a Jordanian military officer who asked to remain anonymous. He said hundreds of soldiers who speak languages ​other than Arabic were seen during the past two days (as of Sunday) moving back and forth in military vehicles between the King Hussein Air Base in al-Mafraq, ten kilometers from the Syrian border, and the vicinity of Jordanian villages near the Syrian border, including Albaej, the area around the dam of Sarhan, the villages of Zubaydiah and al-Nahdah adjacent to the Syrian border.

 Of course Iran won't take that without its own display of force -

A member of the Iranian parliament's National Security Committee said on Monday that the military was set to practise its ability to close the Gulf to shipping at the narrow Strait of Hormuz, the most important oil transit channel in the world, but there was no official confirmation.

The legislator, Parviz Sarvari, told the student news agency ISNA: "Soon we will hold a military manoeuvre on how to close the Strait of Hormuz. If the world wants to make the region insecure, we will make the world insecure."

 The Real Effect
This morning on political talk radio, I heard a staunch neocon correctly list the virtues of arming individuals with guns and how this act of arming would add to societal stability by deterring aggressive criminals. This same laughable neocon line of thought, would see the world disarmed in an attempt to promote "world peace". Please don't ask me when these individuals traded in their brains for a bag of hammers, but it certainly wasn't yesterday.

If one examines the situation in the gulf, you come to a few, supportable positions:

• Iran is the aggressor and the U.S. is the victim.
• The U.S. is the aggressor and Iran is the victim.
• Neither holds true.

If the first is true, please explain how Iran has transgressed the U.S. If the latter two are true, which I believe can be thoroughly demonstrated, note how Iran, by threatening to close the gulf, has kept the occupiers at bay? Further, does not the cold war teach us that MAD will actually promote real peace? If so, shouldn't these individuals be giving Iran nukes like they did to China?

Update: It appears that others get this concept as well.

The idea that America should cross the globe solving every nation's problems is a progressive one. And it makes sense when you think about it. The left generally accepts that the government ought to have a very active role in society, alleviating poverty, ensuring a level playing field or the little guy, and so on. So why wouldn't the same be true of foreign policy as well?

This isn't just a matter of consistency in an abstract sense. The contradiction here has serious practical implications. Every Republican contender has preached about the need to cut the size of government, yet only Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) has discussed the need to cut back our military spending, which consumes one-fifth of the federal budget. The right-to-life argument comes into play here as well. The candidates all take a hard line stance against abortion, but the casualties of war, unfortunate as they war, are one of the necessary evils of achieving our international goals.

Budget Cuts Come to the DoD, Watch the Republicans Squirm

Listen to the partisans thunder and roar as the sacred cows come crashing down -

With deeper budget cuts looming, the Pentagon is starting to cut back by trimming the Defense Department’s civilian workforce.

The Army said Thursday it is moving forward with plans announced in July to cut about 8,700 positions, using a mix of early retirement offers, buyouts and attrition to trim the jobs by the end of the fiscal year in late September.

The Real Effect
Really, the DoD should be called the Department of War again. But it becomes hard to justify your little incursions into smaller countries when the press is writing about War and not Defense. Let this serve as a reminder to anyone who gets confused by such things -

Defense: The action of defending from or resisting attack.

As I have long held, the Republicans are just as bad as the Democrats and in some cases, worse. Countless wars on myriads of continents at trillions of dollars in cost eventually come home to roost. We covered this earlier -

Exactly how does one project one's military power when one is bankrupt? Tactically speaking, why would you hold a position that you know you cannot defend?!?

Of course, the easy answer to this is, you can't. How can you borrow from China when China is the enemy? At best this places the country in an untenable position of either stealing to continue its binge or starting with painful cuts and seeing as how the states are already broke, things are only going to worse for the foreseeable future.

From 2005 - the Republican "Victory on the Budget"?

The following article blew my mind when I read it. It appears that House Majority Leader Tom DeLay feels that the government has declared "victory" and that there is 'simply no fat left to cut in the federal budget.' I believe this betrays many who in good faith voted for representatives that they honestly believed that they would hold the conservative line. Sucks to be deceived, no?

As I sit here somewhat shell-shocked, I wonder how many conservatives really believe much of the tripe they have been ingesting from these posers formerly known as conservatives. Honestly, did we expect anything else?

Listen to these fools if you must. I mean, how wrong can they be?

North American Union - Phase One - December 07, 2011

OWS - About the Reported '30 Tons of Garbage'

Perception is often not reality, from the news media on the Occupy L.A. -

Sanitation officials said Wednesday that they expect to haul away 30 tons of debris from the Occupy L.A. encampment –- everything from clothing to heaps of garbage to oddball curiosities left behind by the protesters who lived at the City Hall tent city for two months.

Andrea Alarcon, president of the city Public Works board, said workers already have removed 25 tons of belongings from the City Hall park, all of it heading straight to a landfill.

Sanitation crews also have vacuumed up about 3,000 gallons of water that had washed into a catch basin in recent days and are testing it for hazardous materials, she said.

The Real Effect
This is another chance to use our critical thinking skills. Let's lok at a clue that is presented in the article iteself.

...workers already have removed 25 tons of belongings from the City Hall park, all of it heading straight to a landfill. 

This is far too amusing to even pass as news but it perfectly illustrates how the government operates. When you need to achieve a goal, change the definition. But let's get some more confirmation on this idea from someone that was actually there -

As we sat there, encircled, a separate team of LAPD officers used knives to slice open every personal tent in the park. They forcibly removed anyone sleeping inside, and then yanked out and destroyed any personal property inside those tents, scattering the contents across the park. They then did the same with the communal property of the Occupy LA movement.

Got it? The officers wrecked all the property then dispersed it so that they could perform their "sanitation" efforts. If you think that's bad, look at how the people were treated for 'resisting arrest'.

I unlinked my arms voluntarily and informed the LAPD officers that I would go peacefully and cooperatively. I stood as instructed, and then I had my arms wrenched behind my back, and an officer hyperextended my wrists into my inner arms. It was super violent, it hurt really really bad, and he was doing it on purpose. When I involuntarily recoiled from the pain, the LAPD officer threw me face-first to the pavement. He had my hands behind my back, so I landed right on my face. The officer dropped with his knee on my back and ground my face into the pavement. It really, really hurt and my face started bleeding and I was very scared. I begged for mercy and I promised that I was honestly not resisting and would not resist.

My hands were then zipcuffed very tightly behind my back, where they turned blue. I am now suffering nerve damage in my right thumb and palm.

I was put on a paddywagon with other nonviolent protestors and taken to a parking garage in Parker Center. They forced us to kneel on the hard pavement of that parking garage for seven straight hours with our hands still tightly zipcuffed behind our backs. Some began to pass out. One man rolled to the ground and vomited for a long, long time before falling unconscious. The LAPD officers watched and did nothing.

Finally, what is the criminal charge being levied???

The charge was sitting in the park after the police said not to. It’s a misdemeanor. Almost always, for a misdemeanor, the police just give you a ticket and let you go. It costs you a couple hundred dollars. Apparently, that’s what happened with most every other misdemeanor arrest in LA that day. With us Occupy LA protestors, however, they set bail at $5,000 and booked us into jail. Almost none of the protesters could afford to bail themselves out. I’m lucky and I could afford it, except the LAPD spent all day refusing to actually *accept* the bail they set.

Newt Gingrich: Serial Hypocrisy