Monday, January 02, 2012

2012 Predictions

Welcome to the 2012 Real Effect  predictions. What will 2012 hold in store for the world and the U.S. in particular? To answer this question is a daunting task and one that we strive to answer. For the last 6 months, concepts have been analyzed, positions questioned and rocks overturned to bring you the latest and greatest. Predictions are highlighted in bold. So, with that we're off to the predictions!

New for 2012!
Yearly Theme: Are we responsible for our own actions?
This question becomes the fundamental litmus test for most every action and decision in the future.

War - 2012
The idea of a World War moves into the mainstream by becoming a probability instead of a possibility. People begin to realize that the only way presented to get out of this will be to fight. Let us pray that they realize who the correct people to fight are.

War Starts With Civil War and a Resurgence of Nationalism
Civil war leads the way as regional conflicts devolve into national wars.
Nationalism takes center stage again as there is a temporary shift away from the "Union / Globalism" mentality in order to demonize and bury Nationalism once and for all. This can be observed in patriotic displays of loyalty to one's home country as the globalists demand fealty to their flag in an attempt to demonize it.

The draft discussion becomes prevalent again. "Not enough boots to go around" combined with talks of "National Pride" and "Supporting one's country"

Outright War 
Start of the Asiatic war (Late Q3 - Q4) - With the US being over committed, it can't back up its positions in other countries, the East sees this and starts moving. Fires break out faster then they can be put out.  

Theaters of war
  • Asia East - The riots and revolutions that the citizens have been participating in need an outlet. The rulers will direct this to local conflicts. Police crackdowns will be brutal, efficient and deadly.
    • Singapore - Led by an outright collapse in the market there.
    • China - Peace is easy to keep when you can throw money at it.
    • North/South Korea - Outright skirmishes, possibly full war. The new ruler of North Korea becomes convinced that he needs to demonstrate his and the country's resolve and the time is ripe.
  • Western Asia - especially deteriorate
    • Pakistan - Civil war OR expulsion of US troops starts in earnest. (Q2 - Q3)
    • Afghanistan - As the US moves into other regions, the MEK begins targeting remaining US troops.
  • Mideast
    • Syria  - It appears that the road to Iran lies through Syria. The US will try to draw in Hezbollah through "regime change". (Q1)
    • Iran - Time will tell on this one. Iran is a tough nut to crack as opinion is running contrary to Western interests here. IF the US gets Syria, Iran is next. There has been a lot of posturing in 2011, but no one has been able to capitalize. Look for the moral justification route being presented via Iranian "guerrilla forces" "destabilizing Syria and attacking US or NATO "peacekeepers".
    • Iraq - Destabilizes into sectarian violence with the north being especially unruly.
  • Africa
    • Uganda
  • North America
    •  US
      • Terror attacks - Like the 888 event, London's 2012 Olympics
    • Mexico - The War On Drugs steps up on the borders in Texas, Arizona, New Mexico and California 
      • This authorizes a FEMA reaction to stem the violence. We might get to see U.N. refugee action (This is already starting to an extent)
  • South America
    • Venezuela
The major economic focus shifts dramatically from Europe to Asia. The economic downturn moves to Asia, setting the stage for war with these countries later. Stagflation takes hold most everywhere
  • Asia
    • China/Taiwan/US - Chinese economy fails (Even now, the government is desperately trying to cover it up)
  • Russia, China
  • Europe
    • The European Union implodes completely.
      • Global TARP (EFSF) fails as firewall after firewall is breached
      • Ratings Agencies continue to downgrade countries and municipalities, not based on any metrics or logical sense, but rather out of a need to recognize the already obvious collapse that is in motion.
      • It may cease to exist nominally as the EU, but it's Phoenix Transformation still awaits.
  • North America
    • Canada staggers 
    •  The United States
      • Asset prices file in giant fits (20 - 40%) as positions are sold to protect themselves 
          • Commodities
            • Oil - Oil has solidified above $100. $130 - $150 is the next target with a Iran led upside of $200 - $250.
            • Gold - Gold and silver have temporarily bottomed. Gold takes out $1700 easily and quickly closes in on $1800. After it breaches $1900, there is a sell off as the wild market fluctuations come into play. (Q1 +  Q2-) Target range is $2000 - $2300.
            • Silver - Silver takes off like a lion again but also suffers just as badly. Initial stop is at $48 as it takes out the previous high. At this point speculators pile on and take it to $75. After this it gets destroyed back to the low $50 range.
            • Copper - Decouples from industry and becomes a poor man's silver investment. (10 - 20% gains)
            • Cotton
      •  US Dollar officially goes inflationary. Printing comes in one form or another
      • Posts first official negative GDP. (In response, the market tanks)
        • In response a Constitutional Crisis emerges (In truth it has existed for a long time)
          • More "desperate" Keynesian solutions are floated as a dramatic attempt to "shock" the economy back to life. If enacted, it will ultimately fail. 
          • Citizens favor giving less people more power to "fix" it (Note - This is one of the goals these bloodsuckers want) 
          • Social programs are demanded in an attempt to 'restore America' but the economic argument now trumps 'societal values'. This leads to screeching about the inherit "injustice" present in the system as the freebies come to an end in austerity. 
          • Things break down. As resources continue to dive, local alliances are formed to compete for these resources.
        •  Corporations now rule
          • Repatriate the money - Corporations attempt to hide behind the Congress and demand a return of 'offshore funds'.
      • At least one state (Illinois?) seriously contemplates bankruptcy (In the end it ends up being bailed out by the Fed)
      • Food stamp use soars
      • The U.S. College bubble begins to pop as longstanding institutions begin to slash their budgets to remain solvent. Some even discuss closing outright. (Start of the "education crisis".) This will be a long recovery as the perception that "education" = "money and success" will be difficult to break.
        • Student loans start to slow (Rate) Teachers will lead the calls for more funding to be thrown at colleges in an attempt to "save education".
      • Existing home sales (SAAR) plummet by at least 10% with 15-20% being the more likely range. (4.5 million units to a bottom of 3.3 million units) Certain areas that were big on expansion before the crash, begin to resemble (Chinese) ghost towns. Eventually, gangs move into these areas abandoned by the local populace. 
      • Unemployment 
        • Unemployment Weekly Claims rise again (450,000 to 525,000) range. (2Q)
        • Unemployment Rate - Note: In 2011 I intentionally predicted a rise in the rate along with all of my other stunning positions for one reason. This is a non-lose scenario. If I predicted it would stay the same, it would obviously be correct. However, seeing my stunning clairvoyance on every other issue, why would I be so wrong on this one? Simple, because the government is fudging the numbers. By inaccurately predicting a rise, when one did not occur, it stands in sharp contrast to all the other prediction. One is left pondering - Just why is this number staying the same?

The mantra "The future is our hope" begins to become center to the recovery.  What is lost on everyone is that in order for this concept to work, you have to sacrifice now. You can't borrow from tomorrow at an inflated rate (interest) and expect tomorrow to be better when the underlying fundamentals have NOT changed.

Men want to marry less due to the parasitical nature of women. This results in a "marriage/woman crisis" down the road. Churches begin to brow beat men into "growing up" and "accepting responsibility". (Already happening) This leads to a further schism in the churches as many churches become void of patriarchal leadership and shift aggressively to matriarchal influence. (This does not mean that men will not lead, but rather the male leadership will be massively influenced to the "injustices" being carried out on women. They will then accordingly enforce the desires of the female population.)

Feminism takes one in the eye as mothers decide it's not economically worth it to work, but would rather stay home and raise their children.

Metrosexual males start losing market value as they begin to be perceived as weak in the eyes of women everywhere as society stops valuing "fashion".

Crime nationally rises dramatically. + 20 - 30 %(Theft skyrockets, homicides increase and assault is up. Suicides increase.)

Police become a gang (Us vs. Them mentality intensifies) Small - medium riots emerge as the police overplay their authority. (Nationalize?) The cost of policing goes up substantially due to hazard pay, deaths and low enrollment. (Already starting to happen.) This leads to turf wars - (Black vs black, black vs Mexican, cop vs gang, cop vs Fed)

Customers begin to get violent. The mantra has been get more for less these last 30 years, now individuals who have heard this their whole loves will run into the laws of supply and demand. (McDonald's raises their price of the $1 menu)

Note: I reserve the right to edit these predictions until January 7, 2011.

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