Real Effect: States Going Belly Up Part 13

Tuesday, October 19, 2010

States Going Belly Up Part 13 - The Endgame Timeline

We continue our fine series on the fiscal calamities facing state budgets, namely pensions -

#1 Illinois
Year pension fund runs out: 2018
Bill in the following year: $13.6 billion
Share of state revenue: 32%

Speaking of Illinois...

#2 Connecticut
Year pension fund runs out: 2019
Bill in the following year: $4.9 billion
Share of state revenue: 27%

#3 Indiana
Year pension fund runs out: 2019
Bill in the following year: $3.6 billion
Share of state revenue: 17%

#4 New Jersey
Year pension fund runs out: 2019
Bill in the following year: $14.4 billion
Share of state revenue: 34%

#5 Hawaii
Year pension fund runs out: 2020
Bill in the following year: $1.7 billion
Share of state revenue: 24%

#6 Louisiana
Year pension fund runs out: 2020
Bill in the following year: $4.3 billion
Share of state revenue: 27%

#7 Oklahoma
Year pension fund runs out: 2020
Bill in the following year: $3.7 billion
Share of state revenue: 30%

#8 Colorado
Year pension fund runs out: 2022
Bill in the following year: $7.8 billion
Share of state revenue: 54%

#9 Kansas
Year pension fund runs out: 2022
Bill in the following year: $2.5 billion
Share of state revenue: 23%

#10 Kentucky
Year pension fund runs out: 2022
Bill in the following year: $5.3 billion
Share of state revenue: 35%

#11 New Hampshire
Year pension fund runs out: 2022
Bill in the following year: $1.0 billion
Share of state revenue: 30%

The Real Effect
Woo boy, that's pretty soon. Now, I'm going to go out on a limb here and guess that these projections factor in an economic recovery and do not include the current housing crisis let alone the Depression. Following the government time rule of 1/3 (to factor in the propensity of government to massively step up their idiocy) that would mean Illinois will be bankrupt in 2015 without a housing crisis. Add in some losses in a few major banks and some extra dependency claims and this becomes a crisis that needs dealing with NOW.

Taken together, the bill for the top 11 states would be 62.8 BILLION dollars. That's just the top 11, and doesn't even include other expenditures. Now what public service worker in their right mind is going to like loosing their pension? Oh that's right, the politicians got a solution to this problem.

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Real Effect Quotes

Syria - It appears that the road to Iran lies through Syria. The US will try to draw in Hezbollah through "regime change". (Q1)
- The Real Effect - January 1, 2012

Start of the Asiatic war (Late Q3 - Q4) - With the US being over committed, it can't back up its positions in other countries, the East sees this and starts moving. Fires break out faster then they can be put out.
- The Real Effect - January 1, 2012

This is not a recession, it is a depression. And a massive one at that. We are not at the bottom, we are on gaining momentum for the next plunge down. If you thought the last drop was bad, this one is going to strike fear into the hearts of men everywhere.
- The Real Effect - June 15, 2009

Look for Roberts to hold a conservative line for a while, disarming most arguments against his nomination. Then when key arguments come to SCOTUS, I believe he will suddenly become a Sandra Day and hand us over to the globalists.
- The Real Effect - August 23, 2005

Western Europe contracts massively, putting extraordinary pressure on the Euro. But the call out of Belgium isn't about revoking the Euro, rather about the preservation of the European Union and the need to 'pull together'. I would expect that we could begin to see propaganda calling for a United Europe in the face of "x" (economic crisis, terror, war). Ultimately in the endgame, foreign creditors feel the massive pinch as they try to protect their investments, but the lack of a favorable response by the people will lead to war with the far east, but not yet.
- The Real Effect - January 1, 2011