Tuesday, October 19, 2010

States Going Belly Up Part 13 - The Endgame Timeline

We continue our fine series on the fiscal calamities facing state budgets, namely pensions -
#1 Illinois
Year pension fund runs out: 2018
Bill in the following year: $13.6 billion
Share of state revenue: 32%

Speaking of Illinois...


#2 Connecticut
Year pension fund runs out: 2019
Bill in the following year: $4.9 billion
Share of state revenue: 27%

#3 Indiana
Year pension fund runs out: 2019
Bill in the following year: $3.6 billion
Share of state revenue: 17%

#4 New Jersey
Year pension fund runs out: 2019
Bill in the following year: $14.4 billion
Share of state revenue: 34%

#5 Hawaii
Year pension fund runs out: 2020
Bill in the following year: $1.7 billion
Share of state revenue: 24%

#6 Louisiana
Year pension fund runs out: 2020
Bill in the following year: $4.3 billion
Share of state revenue: 27%

#7 Oklahoma
Year pension fund runs out: 2020
Bill in the following year: $3.7 billion
Share of state revenue: 30%

#8 Colorado
Year pension fund runs out: 2022
Bill in the following year: $7.8 billion
Share of state revenue: 54%

#9 Kansas
Year pension fund runs out: 2022
Bill in the following year: $2.5 billion
Share of state revenue: 23%

#10 Kentucky
Year pension fund runs out: 2022
Bill in the following year: $5.3 billion
Share of state revenue: 35%

#11 New Hampshire
Year pension fund runs out: 2022
Bill in the following year: $1.0 billion
Share of state revenue: 30%
The Real Effect
Woo boy, that's pretty soon. Now, I'm going to go out on a limb here and guess that these projections factor in an economic recovery and do not include the current housing crisis let alone the Depression. Following the government time rule of 1/3 (to factor in the propensity of government to massively step up their idiocy) that would mean Illinois will be bankrupt in 2015 without a housing crisis. Add in some losses in a few major banks and some extra dependency claims and this becomes a crisis that needs dealing with NOW.

Taken together, the bill for the top 11 states would be 62.8 BILLION dollars. That's just the top 11, and doesn't even include other expenditures. Now what public service worker in their right mind is going to like loosing their pension? Oh that's right, the politicians got a solution to this problem.

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