Korean War Analysis

The entire situation reminds me of the 888 war (Aug. 8, 2008) in which Georgia, with the backing of US Special Forces launched an attack on Russian forces in South Ossetia. At the time, the news agencies decided to start reporting slightly after the start and claim that it was Russia that was attacking Georgia while ignoring the earlier attacks.

In that particular war, if one ignored certain facts or was naively unaware of them, a certain narrative started to emerge that fingered the Russians as aggressive expansionists persecuting the poor Georgians. This scenario was later rebuffed as nonfactual as it came out that Georgia was in fact the aggressor in that conflict.

In this particular situation, several questions/observations immediately come to mind.

1. Who fired first?
1. According to South Korea, they fired by North Korea first, but not at them.
2. If we assume North Korea fired first and was launching a new war, why target civilians?
1. Let's just assume that the North Koreans are eeevil commie scum for a second - Why waste time, munitions and most importantly public relations blowing up strategic non-starters? Why not target military targets?
2. Is it possible that the South staged part of this incident to justify a response?
3. Why would the North announce they are continuing their "nuclear program" and then attack the next day? (A program they got from the US.)
4. The fact that South Korea just so happened to be running drills on invading the North in the area (close to the N.Korean border) at question at that time. Something that was well within their rights but within suspicion.
1. They started Monday and were scheduled to last until Nov 30th.

South Korea holds military exercises like Tuesday's off the west coast about every three months, and they typically provoke an angry response from North Korea, but Tuesday's confrontation was far from typical.

The Real Effect
Given all of this, how do I anticipate this will play out? Let's look at each player in the conflict.

South Korea
The ball is in their court now and the world awaits their next move. I'm unsure of how the Korean people will perceive this issue as it all depends on how many facts they can get their hands on.
I'm pretty certain that they will want blood. In addition, it seems that they are tired of being perceived as being "weak" on the security threat that is North Korea.

Add in the Cheonan sinking (Which is a short distance away and incredibly suspicious) and you have a very volatile mix. I believe the pressure from the people will be to retaliate in some sort of limited fashion. Perhaps on their "offensive" assets, like their missile bases. Yet that risks all out conflict with the North. This is not wise.

North Korea
With Kim Jung-Il is handing controls over to Kim Jung-Un, this could be concluded by enemies to be an act by him to solidify military control of this country. (Looks like someone got to that point already.) If this is true, Un risks losing control if he backs down which makes the North particularly dangerous.

After being rebuffed continually in attempts to form an alliance with the south, they just might see the writing on the wall and are moving into a total war footing. Further, with recent US/South Korean exercises in the area including the USS George Washington specifically the yellow sea and possible reports of US tactical nuclear weapons are moving into the theater, they may see things as becoming desperate. But they are tied at the hip with China.

China
I'm pretty certain that the reported Chinese missile that was fired from a Jin class submarine off the West coast recently is loosely related to this situation.They seem fairly reserved at this point and perhaps the most level headed - "The situation needs to be verified,", but they are playing the sides of this war and it is not in their interest to get involved, yet.

US
Needing a war to divert attention, this provides a much needed diversion from foreclosure gate and the ailing economy. In addition, with the TSA situation threatening the Federal power grab, something needs to happen to push things back into their control. With Thanksgiving just around the corner, Americans preoccupied with preparation and 28,000 troops stationed there, this might be a nice situation to bail out the Empire. Plus, wasn't Obama just there?

Europe
Ireland is bankrupt, Portugal is right behind them, Spain, and the UK. A war would be a nice diversion.


Russia
This is geographically close to them, I highly doubt they are pleased about having this sort of conflict in their back yard and want to see the situation diffused.

Israel
Reports of the North Koreans supplying the Iranians with nukes could spur the Israeli to push for the US to deal decisively with this situation.


Predictions

• The dollar will rise further. Perhaps this is the overall plan?
• Oil prices will increase. Not tremendously at first, but if this escalates $3 gas will be cheap in comparison.
• Domestic terrorism. If the US gets involved with the situation, I expect some sort of terror attack to target transportation methods that will allow the TSA to reassert itself, aggressively.

Overall, I don't see this as being "THE" event, rather one of the important stage setting events that pushes the players onto the stage in order to guarantee that they act their part. This is not normal, this is "security theater" on a grand scale.