Contagion Spreads to Spain?

From Business Week -

Even as the 27 finance minsters of the European Union gathered in Brussels yesterday and ordered Greece, again, to impose yet more hardship on its people in order to slash the national deficit, some may have been eyeing their colleagues around the Brussels meeting room warily.

For all are concerned about which nation might next suffer from the dreaded "contagion." The fear is that the next member of the so-called "PIIGS" — Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain — to suffer a crisis of confidence will be Spain.

Spain's banks are strong and acquisitive, stronger than most other countries' institutions. But Spain's annual budget deficit, like the UK's and Greece's, has spiralled well into double figures – at almost 12 per cent of GDP it rivals Greece's Olympian disregard for the old Maastricht treaty rules of prudence.

And the markets are worried. Not, admittedly as fretful as they are about Greece, but the market price of insuring Spanish government debt has jumped in recent weeks (the mysterious-sounding credit default swaps), and now stands at €139,000 per €10m of debt – four times the cost of insuring an equivalent German bond.

The EU's Competition Commissioner Joaquin Almunia – a Spaniard – has suggested that Spain's economic problems look increasingly like those of Greece and Portugal. But in a worst case scenario, Greece is affordable – about 2.5 per cent of European GDP.

Spain, conversely, accounts for about 16 per cent of EU GDP, and is a much more expensive proposition for restoration work. Indeed, there are some grounds for supposing that, even if Berlin wanted to, it might be unable to afford to take on Spain's fiscal challenges.

The Real Effect
As I stated at the beginning and the end of January -

I do know that Greece's woes are going to blow out into the eurozone specifically Spain, Portugal, Italy and Ireland as they are all big holders of Greek bonds. This in turn will cause their economies to suffer as the fallout becomes contagious.

It would appear that Greece is the fuse and Spain is the explosives.