Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Israel and World War III - Part 7, Act 1a: The Iran Play

The Theater
Front 1 - Mideast
Front 2 - Gateway to Asia/Mideast; Specifically India/Pakistan (Wikileaks documents release)
Front 3 - Asia (China, Russia) - Japan, Taiwan and South Korea will probably trade sides
Front 4 - Northern America/Central America


Objective Targets:
  • Qom (uranium enrichment facilities)
  • Natanz (Nuclear Reactor)
  • Esfahan (gas storage development)
  • Bushehr (lightwater reactor)  
  • Cities include - Tehran, Shiraz, Mashad

Phase I - Israeli attack on Iran
The big question is how - They will use the southern attack route (They upset Turkey, so unless the US is offering some sort of bribe, the northern route is out) Plus, they would need to seek U.S. authority to enter Iraqi airspace, an act that would upset the Muslims in the area and probably destabalize the region. As noted at 'The Officers' Club' is, Israel has no element of surprise so I believe the will resort to unorthodox tactics. Consider the following -
Israel, whose arms agreements with Turkey mounted to nearly $5 billion dollars over a period of years, had been training pilots in Turkey for bombing attacks on Iran. During these training missions, Israel was smuggling aircraft through Turkish airspace.
And the Stuxnet worm -
The government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has since set cyber warfare as a national priority, "up there with missile shields and preparing the homefront to withstand a future missile war", a senior source said on condition of anonymity. 
Disclosures that a sophisticated computer worm, Stuxnet, was uncovered at the Bushehr atomic reactor and may have burrowed deeper into Iran's nuclear programme prompted foreign experts to suggest the Israelis were responsible.
Phase II - US denial of involvement/political support of Israel, Hezbollah counter attacks
  • Iraq - The Eastern border with Iraq is going to split wide open
    • Cluster attack possible on Iraqi bases
    • Destabilize Iraq by flooding the region with special forces and heavy arms, the resistance to the occupation becomes stronger.
Phase III - Iranian counterattack against Israeli (Gaza)/US forces closing of gulf (Turkey, Saudi Arabia)
  • Will lead to closing of the Straits of Hormuz, 
    • Gas up to $7 -10 a gallon
    • attacks on our aircraft carriers (I'm guessing they will be placed strategically to get shot up by their new attack boats by being too close to the shores of Iran.) We will most likely lose a Nimitz aircraft carrier.
  • Barricade/Mine the Strait of Hormuz. This would be an assertion of Iranian dominance
  • Probable Iran attacks Saudi refineries in retaliation for logistical support of the Israeli plan
How?
  • Super Sunburn Missiles longer range Shahab 3 and 4. Tor M-29 &; Tor M1 9M330, SCUD-B launchers, At one point Iran possessed possibly 100 missiles
    • Shahab-3, a variant of North Korea's No Dong missile. It can be outfitted with high explosives, nuclear devices, EMP's (Electro Magnetic Pulse), and chemical weapons
This would be a problem for the U.S. military. Why? According to Scott Ritter -
"in 1991 not a single Iraqi Scud missile was successfully interdicted by any aspect of American military action (airstrike, ground action or antiballistic missile), and in 2003 the U.S. military had mixed results against the far less capable Al-Samoud missiles. Israel was unable to prevent Hezbollah from firing large salvos of rockets into northern Israel during the summer 2006 conflict"

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