Iran - Time Is Running Out

Tomorrow (4/28/2006) is the deadline for Iran to comply with the U.S. demands on it's nuclear program. Up until now Iran has continually asserted it's 'right' to procure nuclear technology and I see no reason to believe that they will do an about face once this deadline has passed.

To make matters more interesting, the U.S. House of Representative has voted overwhelmingly (397-21) to impose sanctions on Iran -

"The bill would beef up sanctions against Iran until it scraps any chemical, biological or nuclear weapons programs, and calls for the names of any individual, company or country investing $20 mln or more in Iran's energy sector to be published in the US Federal Register, AFP noted. The bill also "authorizes" the US president to fund pro-democracy and human rights organizations and radio programs aimed at Iran."

According to the AP , some harsh words are being flung about. Tehran's top nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani stated -

"If U.N. Security Council sanctions are to be imposed on Iran, we will definitely suspend our cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency,"

"If you take harsh measures, we will hide this program. If you use the language of force, you should not expect us to act transparently."

Not to be outdone -

"Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice immediately shot back, saying Iran's statements were further isolating it from the international community."

Just when you thought the insanity was enough -

"Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad boldly predicted the Security Council would not impose sanctions and warned he was thinking about dropping out of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty."

Perhaps even more disconcerting is -

"Iran's nuclear capability is one example of various scientific capabilities in the country. ... The Islamic Republic of Iran is prepared to transfer the experience, knowledge and technology of its scientists," Ayatollah Ali Khamenei told al-Bashir."

According to the Asia Times the US is using the Mujahideen-e Khalq (MEK) organization and other groups to carry out cross-border operations already. -

"A former Iranian ambassador and Islamic Republic insider has provided intriguing details to Asia Times Online about US covert operations inside Iran aimed at destabilizing the country and toppling the regime - or preparing for an American attack."

"The Iranian government knows and is aware of such infiltration. It means that the Iranian government has identified them [the covert operatives] but for some reason does not want to show [this]," said the former diplomat on condition of anonymity."

The Real Effect
Despite the constant rhetoric to the contrary, the U.S. administration is NOT interested in a peaceful solution to this problem and will attack Iran. Watch for gas prices to spike another 5-10% probably tomorrow but as late as a week from now in response to Iran's 'repeated demonstration of defiance of the international community'. That would raise local gas prices from $2.99 to the range of $3.09-3.29.