Thursday, May 24, 2012

The Enterprise Is Sitting In Bahrain

ZH provides us with the latest carrier map -
There was a time, late in the winter, that not a day passed without some headline announcing Israel's preparedness to attack Iran, culminating with the grotesque - a show on Israel TV detailing the actual invasion plans. All these daily updates did was guarantee one thing - that absolutely no war could possibly break out for two simple reasons:
i) you never declare war when the opponent is expecting you, instead you habituate them to news about imminent invasions which never happens, and,
ii) Brent was over $120, which would guarantee no re-election for Obama as outright war would send the energy complex soaring, gas prices surging, and the world economy, but most importantly the Russell 2000, tumbling.
Over the past 2 months two things have happened: chatter of "imminent" war with Iran has died down to barely a whisper, and WTI is now trading 20% lower than 2012 highs. Which means there is far more capacity for a run higher. So putting all that together, does it mean that the prospect of war with Iran is now gone? Below we present the latest naval update map courtesy of Stratfor, and leave readers to make their own conclusions...
The Real Effect
Iran has fallen off the radar for the last few months mostly because the chatter has died down significantly. If I remember correctly, this is what happened right before the Iraq invasion. A lot of discussion, a lot of posturing some 'attempts' at peace and then suddenly "Shock and Awe". Even considering that, no one knows what's going to happen right up until the president gives the green light.

Now quite a bit of ink has been bandied back and forth about the possibility of Iran targeting the Enterprise in a grand false flag style operation. My assumption has been that if such a thing were to happen that the Enterprise would be fitted with some sort of explosives so as not to leave anything to chance. Given their current proximity to CIA stomping grounds, is it possible that the carrier is now being readied for a grand show?

Only time will tell there.

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