Wednesday, November 14, 2012

War In Gaza

The regional and civil wars are devolving into full on war, namely Operation Pillar of Cloud -
Israel launched a major offensive against Palestinian militants in Gaza on Wednesday, killing the military commander of Hamas in an air strike and threatening an invasion of the enclave that the Islamist group vowed would "open the gates of hell".

The onslaught shattered hopes that a truce mediated on Tuesday by Egypt could pull the two sides back from the brink of war after five days of escalating Palestinian rocket attacks and Israeli strikes at militant targets.

Operation "Pillar of Defense" began with a surgical strike on a car carrying the commander of the military wing of Hamas, the Islamist movement which controls Gaza and dominates a score of smaller armed groups.

Within minutes of the death of Ahmed Al-Jaabari, big explosions were rocking Gaza, as the Israeli air force struck at selected targets just before sundown, blasting plumes of smoke and debris high above the crowded city.
Naturally, Gaza returned the favor by declaring waaaaahr! -
The Qassam Brigades issued a furious communique in response to Jaabari's death, saying Israel had "opened the gates of hell on itself."

Like the eternal Hatfields and McCoys, Israel and the Arabs are fighting again like the brothers they are.
Gaza shot a bunch of rockets at us!
Israel is starving our people!
Gaza is...well, you get the idea.

This is precisely why a rule of law needs to be respected. Inevitably, when one or both sides starts claiming they can flout the rules because morality, God, government, history is on their side, bad things start happening. Of course the timing of all this is highly suspect with talks of peace around the corner and Iran preparing for war. Additionally, a curious complication has risen with Egypt taking sides against Israel -
Egypt’s Islamist Freedom and Justice Party, formerly headed by President Mohammed Mursi, said on Wednesday Egypt would no longer stand by as Israel attacked Palestinians after air strikes killed a Hamas leader.
My take? The IDF is trying to start a regional war. Look for the entire region to face off and draw lines in the sand. Lebanon could start taking 'pot shots' at Israel from the north as the Syrian conflict spills over and engulfs the whole region. Blood is in the water and all sides are looking at adding to their territory. Of course the ultimate goal is Iran, Netanyahu has a few months until the election. If he's going after Iran, look for a furious escalation in Gaza trying to draw in Hezbollah from the north, justifying a response against Iran.
Syria - It appears that the road to Iran lies through Syria. The US will try to draw in Hezbollah through "regime change". (Q1)

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