Wednesday, January 02, 2013

Predictions 2013

Welcome to the 2013 Real Effect  predictions. What will 2013 hold in store for the world and the U.S. in particular? To answer this question is a daunting task and one that we strive to answer. For the last 6 months, concepts have been analyzed, positions questioned and rocks overturned to bring you the latest and greatest. Predictions are highlighted in bold

Theme : The year the world changed, for the worse. "That" guy is to blame. 

Like a bad divorce or a separating business, the business practices that were not only acceptable 10 years ago but commendable, become the 'I told you so' moments of the new age. People begin to turn on one another in droves as they need a raison d'etre for their pain, anguish and empty checkbooks. Surely they are not responsible in any way. It was THAT man, over there. He did this. He did this to us! And he must pay!

  •  Since the differences between ideology and practices could not be sorted out publicly, it now turns to the battlefield.  Civil war begins its shift to national wars.
    • Assassination -  At least one moderate to major head of state is taken out. (Assad?)
    • Nationalism continues to build with major globalists leading the charge. (Beware the atrocities that will follow)  
      • In light of this, a final case for globalism builds - Talk starts to reemerge about the selfish nature of nation states and how nationalism is one of the main factors driving war. (Religion being the other)
    • At least 3 moderate/major wars. ( Muslim vs Christian, East vs. West.)
    • Far East
      • China 
        • Severs some ties with the west. (EU and the US)I would think this would be economic in form, perhaps selling of some bonds?
      • North Korea
        • Attempts to solidify the region come with the north and south once again attempt to end the war and join sides
          • Critical to the success of this will be Washington's influence
    • West
      • US 
        • Defense wise, the US slows down as a 'world super power' 
          • Bahrain (5th fleet being ostensibly kicked out?) (Happening already...) 
          • Syria - Unsuccessful at drawing in Hezbollah in 2012, the US appears to be doubling down and create the script of 'mass genocide' in Syria to justify an invasion. If it succeeds, NATO will lead the way and Iran will be next.
          • Iran - Iran continues to be second on the priority list. If Syria falls, Iran is next.
          • Iraq - Contractors are targeted
          • Pakistan
          • Afghanistan
          • Africa
            • Libya
            • Uganda
            • Sudan
            • Chad
        • Special forces focus - The US will continue its slowdown in combat strength but will continue to increase its special forces projection. This will be visible in minor skirmishes in lots of countries.
        • Draft - Because of the slowdown in troop strength, a legislative attempt at reenacting the draft is attempted.
    • Mideast -
      • Syria
      • Egypt
      • Iran

  • CIA sponsored terror attacks increase with frequency as the destabilization efforts continue. 
    • Unfortunately, the ability to determine the difference between 'false flags' and legitimate terror begins to wane as the local populaces fight back.
    • A commercial airliner is shot down by terrorists. Most likely the ordinance will trace back to Syrian rebels, which in turn will be blamed on Iran.
  • Civil war expands
    •  US - As flash robberies (organized crime) continue, the local police departments become overwhelmed. Yet, their priorities are out of order as 'revenue generation' continues to be the top priority.
      • Police splinter - Federal/DHS faction versus the local sheriff.
      • DHS/TSA morphs into a 'control agency'.
      • Feds desperately try to buy off the local cops
    • Constitutional war
      • 1st: Social Media sites get pinched as Bloggers, FB and other media experiences a sort of crackdown as 'subversive' material is sent the way of the memory hole.
      • 2nd: Gun registrations/confiscations with a low level at first, perhaps registrations as some sort of 'peace offer'  (And CT/Feinstein beat me to the punch)
      • 4th: Highway checkpoints increase moderately as the TSA embraces its new 'mandate'.
      • The Republicans march to war - (States vs the Fed) - One moderate miscalculation on my part was the assumption that the power struggle between secessionist Republicans vs Statist Democrats would be played out at the Federal level. While accurate in that this is exactly where the problem metastasized as a result of the Federal election results and the subsequent hissy fit, it seems as though the narrative is shifting to a State versus Federal contest.
        • The resistance starts with Obamacare and plays out in other issues like gun control as Republican governors stand up against the Feds.

  • Asia deteriorates. Now that the Chinese miracle has been staggered, look for problems to materialize in the East. Japan should lead the way here as they are way overdue.
  • EU 
    • One country attempts to leave the Union.
  • US
    • The United States credit rating is downgraded again. (In a possible shock move, it gets hit twice
    • The Federal Reserve
      • QE3 'fails' (Read as it doesn't save corporatists from their bad decisions.)
        • The Fed cannot continue to kick the can, because it is no longer a can, it's an F-150. This does not mean they will not do it, merely that the effect of it will no longer matter.
        • Inflation rot begins to show.
      • The Fed moves to a 'targeted asset revaluation program' - Inflating the entire economy won't work, so now the Fed will just declare that an asset or company is not worth X but 2X. (Moving the US to an overt command and control economy) I would imagine that GM's 'success' would be used as a justification.
    • Healthcare spending skyrockets exponentially. (At least +20%) Especially on a corporate and governmental level
      • This blows up several base line projections from the government.
      • At least 30% of companies move to 30 hour work weeks.
    • The student bubble explodes, a moderate to major movement eventually comes out of the college-debt scene.
  • Corporations
    • Apple takes a major shot to the head as sales start declining massively (At least 10%) The fanbois scream in abject horror that Apple is just fine even as their stock plummets
    • Facebook - Put a fork in FB. Users abandon in droves as they migrate to Twitter, Google and other accounts that don't either 1) Make unusable updates continually 2) Sell your data

Looking ahead 2014 - The year of famine, sickness... 2015 - The year of 'miracles'

Other predictions -

As always, I reserve the right to edit these predictions up until Jan 7th. If I do so, I will make notations.

Edit note - 1/23/2013: Upon review I noticed that a few predictions were not bold. While not a change to the material nature, this aids the reader in distinguishing an actual prediction from description and speculation.

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