Monday, January 16, 2012

Elections 2012 - The Candidates

Updates: 1/19/2012 - Perry is rumored to drop out today. Gingrich was surging in the polls, but this interview with his ex-wife is going to destroy him in the south.

Front runners
Rep - Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, Rick Santorum
Dem - Barrack Obama, Hillary Clinton, ?

Potential Republican Candidates for President (Run/Win)
  • Ron Paul - Texas Representative (9/7)
    • Only candidate that saw the "economic crisis" coming.
    • Polls high in NH.Second place in Iowa.
    • Most likely candidate to defeat Obama.
    • Will be portrayed again as weak on national security.
    • Candidates are trying to be him 
  • Mitt Romney (10/5)
  • Rick Santorum (5/4)
    • He's in...
    • Comes in 2nd in Iowa, falls dramatically in New Hampshire
    • Flip flops
      • Abortion
        • No abortions even in cases of rape; one violence is enough. (Aug 2011)
        • Exception for rape & incest ok, even though they take a life. (Sep 2006)
      • 2008 bailouts - Supported
        • 2005: Fannie & Freddie should create housing affordability. (Jan 2012)
        • TARP was biggest government intrusion into private sector. (Oct 2011)
        • Tax credits to promote home ownership in distressed areas. (Apr 2003) 
      • Marriage
        • Supports Federal intervention into marriage. 
        • Marriage is a federal issue; we need one definition, not 50. (Jan 2012)
        • Marriage Protection Amendment is last resort, but needed. (Apr 2006) 
        • No-Fault Freedom: doing whatever we want damages society. (Apr 2006)
        • Leave marriage definition to state legislatures & the people. (Jul 2004)
  • Does not support the Constitution
  • Supports the War on Drugs
    • Voted YES on increasing penalties for drug offenses. (Nov 1999)
    • Voted YES on spending international development funds on drug control. (Jul 1996)
  • Is pro-life
  • Supports the Federal Reserve
  • Department of Homeland Security fixed an internal mess. (Sep 2011)
  • Supporter of Medicare Part D
  • Supporter of No Child Left Behind
  • Is pro-war
    • Terrorism is an asymmetric threat; we need worldwide bases. (Jun 2011)
    • Don't cut one penny out of defense spending. (Oct 2011)
    • Supported the invasion of Iraq
    • Want's to "confront" Iran
      • Giving money to Iran rebels is not enough. (Nov 2011)
      • No apologies for past American interventions in Iran. (Aug 2011)
      • Iran has been at war with us since 1979. (Aug 2011)
    • Voted YES on Strengthening of the trade embargo against Cuba. (Mar 1996) 
  • Supported Sen. Arlen Specter in 2004
  • Supports the IMF, NAFTA
  • His nephew supports Ron Paul 
  • Cut all corporate tax rates to zero. (Sep 2011) 
  • Pro amnesty
    • Welcome legal immigrants as part of made-in-America plan. (Nov 2011)
  • Economics
    • Pro National Sales Tax
      • 84% of Americans pay more tax if we have national sales tax. (Oct 2011)
    • Likes to spend when he agrees with it
      • Voted YES on $3.1B for emergency oil assistance for hurricane-hit areas. (Oct 2005)
      • $90M to study effects of media violence on kids. (Apr 2006)
      • Fund reverse-commuting for distressed suburbs. (Apr 2006)
      • Voted YES on restoring $550M in funding for Amtrak for 2007. (Mar 2006) 
      • Voted YES on targeting 100,000 hydrogen-powered vehicles by 2010. (Jun 2003)
      • Voted YES on more funding for forest roads and fish habitat. (Sep 1999)
    • Pro austerity
      • Means testing: reduce Social Security benefits for wealthy seniors. (Jan 2012)
      • 1994: Proposed raising retirement age, despite unpopularity. (Sep 2011)




  • Newt Gingrich (7/2)


    • Drop outs
    Other important players
    • Glenn Beck
      • Supports carbon taxes, VAT taxes
    • Donald Trump
    Potential Democrat Candidates for President (Run/Win)

    The Issues
    • The Debt (National, State)
    • Foreign policy (4 concurrent wars - Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, Libya)
    • Property Rights
    The Real Effect
    Week 12 - 8/12/2011 - Finally, some fireworks as we get the first Republican debate in Iowa. Not a whole lot to write home about but the results are somewhat encouraging. (Bachmann 4823, Paul 4671, Pawlenty 2293, Santorum 1657, Cain 1456, Romney 567, Gingrich 385, Huntsman 69, McCotter 35, (Perry got 718 write-in votes)) Yet Paul is treated as a media side-show by everyone under the sun.
     In relevant news, Perry finally got into the race.

    Week 9 - 7/22/2011 - The periphery is heating up as Obama is falling in the polls like a rock. The Republicans are hunting for a viable candidate even as they continue to give away the farm on the debt ceiling negotiations. 'Tanks in the streets' is the verbiage that is being used to bully the people into supporting even greater levels of debt. Look for more candidates to get involved as it becomes obvious that America is going down. Yet, the new candidates are just new window dressing on the same ideas that got us into this mess in the first place.

    Week 8 - 7/15/2011 - Wow, a month goes by fast. Not a lot has changed over the past few months. Thankfully the candidates positions are being fleshed out and this is allowing us to see just where everyone stands.

    Week 4 - 6/17/2011 - Ric Perry cashed in on the momentum of the previous week by giving what is being hailed as a 'Reaganesque' speech that all but solidified his entry into the field.

    Week 3 - 6/10/2011 - Rick Perry showed up in a big way when Newt's crew ditched him to hypothetically join Perry's non-campaign. Coincidentally, the Bilderberg meeting is occurring at the same time.

    Week 1 - 5/27/2011 - Up to now, we've seen quite a few dropouts in the fields with Donald Trump showing that he was nothing more then an establishment distraction, Schwarz being pushed aside because of his extra children, Daniels feeling the pinch of his state's Supreme court ruling effectively declaring war on his citizens and Huckabee falling out. Paul Ryan continues to obfuscate, but his off grasp/honesty on the Medicare issue going to remove him anyways. Herman Cain continues to draw in nominal Conservatives that aren't doing much research. At this point it's becoming obvious that the debt and property ethics are going to be THE campaign issues on the people's mind.

    Note: This is a resource and will be updated periodically. Originally published 5/6/2011.

    1/16/2012 - and now John Huntsman is out with South Carolina looming.
    1/4/2012 - ...and the first round in Iowa goes to Mitt Romney with second place going to Santorum? Michelle Bachman drops out with Perry eying the exit as well.

    1/3/2012 - And now Santorum is surging in an attempt to bleed evangelical votes from Ron Paul. It's the first Primary in Iowa and Paul is pulling ahead.
    12/19/2011 - I removed all the irrelevant candidates from the running list. Gingrich has enjoyed his 15 minutes of adoration and now everybody remembers just why they hated him so much. Paul is surging and looks certain to win in Iowa, possibly New Hampshire.
    11/10/11 - Between Perry's gaffes, Cain's women issues and Romney's liberalism it's a wonder the party still exists.
    10/5/2011 - Palin is out, Cain also shoots himself in the face with the OWS crowd.
    9/27/2011 - Rick Perry shoots himself in the face over immigration, Herman Cain wins the poll if Florida, Ron Paul continues to gain.
    8/22/2011 - Paul Ryan is out.
    8/14/2011 - Tim Pawlenty is out, Rick Perry is in, Michelle Bachmanm wins Iowa  straw poll.
    7/22/2011 - Jeb Bush throws his name into consideration, added Chris Christie
    6/21/2011 - Added John McCain, added Jon Huntsman, added Rick Perry announcement, added Gingrich data.
    6/14/2011 - Added Michelle Bachman announcement, Obama 1 term.
    6/9/2011 - Added Newt Gingrich campaign staff walkout and rating, Rick Perry potential, Hillary Clinton World Bank idea.
    6/8/2011 - Added Herman Cain issue (No Audit the Fed)
    5/27 - Added Michelle Bachman as Rep. candidate. Added Mitt Romney running. Ron Paul poll. Rick Perry, Rudy Giuliani potential run. Haley Barbour drop out. Added running analysis at the bottom. Added front runners section.
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        Friday, January 13, 2012

        Ron Paul Surges Past Santorum, Youth of America Pave the Way

        The establishment has to be getting worried -
        Ron Paul has surged past Rick Santorum into the top tier in South Carolina, gaining a staggering 11 per cent in the last week alone to climb to third with a total of 20 per cent, with Mitt Romney’s first place position at 29 per cent looking increasingly vulnerable.

        After being heralded as a favorite in South Carolina, Santorum has sunk to just 7 per cent. Having at one stage been as low at 8 per cent, Paul clearly has the greatest momentum going into next Saturday’s primary.
        The Real Effect
        The "conservative" talk show circuit has been a set of logic for decades that basically correctly concludes that the more liberty oriented a candidate is, the more likely they are to win. In general this is true. Candidates know this and have practiced it in politicking for decades as well. It has led to the rise of a general strategy in which one lies campaigns to the base in order to secure votes and then subsequently finds his governing 'style' by moving to the middle.

        Consider if you will how this would play out at your oil change place. The mechanic tells you that for $20 you can get an oil change and quick inspection. While your vehicle is being drained of its lifeblood, the mechanic looks at the books and gets pragmatic. 'I'm sorry,' he tells you 'but I also represent my boss' interests and he wants $100 for this oil change. In the name of partisanship, I am charging you $50. Normally, we charge $60, but I'll give you a deal at $50 so you're getting 20% off! Just think of your savings!'

        Most people would have one word for this. FRAUD.

        This is the political reality that these candidates find themselves in. The bait-and-switch tactic has worked admirably for so long why change it? Except there is a larger generational war brewing here. In fact in terms of sheer momentum, it's not a war, it's a potential massacre.
        Nearly half of all voters under 30 went for Paul in the first two states to vote, helping to propel him to a second-place finish in the New Hampshire primary and third place in Iowa’s leadoff caucuses.
        Chew on that for a few minutes. That's not a blip, that's a revolution that's just getting started. These youth realize that the Boomer generation has taken Carpe Diem to ridiculous new heights and have not prepared to take care of themselves. They rightly surmise and fear that the this historical voting populace will turn to the state gun to legally screw their generation over.

        To this extent, the Boomers are perplexed. The world is collapsing. Why are these randy youths making matters worse voting for uncle nutsy? Iran will get the bomb, the banks will collapse, Medicare will collapse! They must be stopped at all costs!


        It is in this last thought that the problem becomes all too clear. Call it what you will, the true problem here is not Democrat, or Iran, or patriotism, terrorists, the Depression or anything else.

        The true problem lie in personal responsibility.

        In most things, the Boomers want someone else to fix the problem. 'Talk to the police. Get insurance. Attend church and school board meetings. Vote for Medicare.' In all things, the Boomers believe in the efficacy of the System. We must move as a whole, not as individuals within a whole. Taken in this light, it becomes stunningly clear why the problem will never be resolved. They will continue to empower those who promise to 'make it better' and pay any cost to do it including sacrificing their own children.

        It is because of this that the children rightly wish to dismantle the parts of the system that are illegal and immoral. Many of them have a deep and biding respect for the law, they just choke on the concept of legalizing slavery again! Many  of them simply want to be left alone to fix their own problems. This is the definition of responsibility.

        The system must be pruned dramatically. Not abolished. To the extent that it recognizes personal responsibility and keeps the consequences for actions nearest the primary actors will be the extent that our country will recover. The edifices of archaic 'law' that seeks to enslave one party to cover another parties risk must be done away with completely if we are to survive.
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        Wednesday, January 11, 2012

        Iran Propaganda debunked in less than 6 minutes

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        Tuesday, January 10, 2012

        Iran - Current Situational Analysis - Poisoning the Asian Well

        I recently posted an update to the Iranian military action page (along with reordering it so that recent actions appear first). There is a world of maneuvering going on over the last few days -
        The Real Effect
        So what on earth is going on? Quite frankly, a large chess match. The US and Israel's goal, along with NATO, is to invade Iran. Russia and China, Syria and Iran oppose this. Let us take a quick look at the events leading up to this from Iran's perspective:
        It doesn't take a genius to figure out what the US wants to do to Iran. As a matter of fact, they keep screaming it from the pulpits. So where do you stand as a nation?
        • The revived Russian Federation says they have your back. (2) (As part of the larger strategy)
        • Countries are stating they will buy more oil in an attempt to bolster Iran
        • China might have your back. (I would think that would depend on how much they think the US will retaliate.)
        • Do you take a shot at the UK's 'advanced' but eminently pegable and juicy target HMS Daring?
          • Will NATO take the shot? And then claim you did it?
        • You move your cutting edge, highly expensive facilities to where the 'enemy' can't get them.
        • Eventually you push ahead with nuclear warheads because if you can get them, perhaps you'll be left alone or at a minimum, you'll take the other side with you.
        Overall, I believe all of this is designed to inflame two parties -  The Muslims in the Mideast and the Asian nations. If the US can get Iran, the focus on the war on terror shifts from the Muslims of the Mideast to the Muslims from such countries as Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan which just so happen to share a border wiiiiiith...........

        China and Russia.
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          Monday, January 09, 2012

          Round 2 - New Hampshire

          The media tries to correlate cook = Paul and turn his "I went" image into a joke -
          Describing the news media as mob-like, Ron Paul's campaign says the candidate was shaken up by what happened this morning.

          His wife was shoved by a reporter, and his stop at a diner was cut short when he was mobbed by reporters before making a clean getaway despite pleas to stay.
          The Real Effect
          With the Huntsman "Hate" fraud being exposed, Ron Paul is surging. Look for fraud galore as the system tries to bury Paul here. Here's a quick tool for tonight, the backstop of vote rigging is exposed -
          1. Removed safeguards for its same-day registration system.
          2. Ignores the law on ballot-stuffing safeguards
          3. Breaks the chain of custody
          4. Conceals vote-counting from the public, in violation of Article 32 of its own Constitution
          5. Removed candidate recount rights (2009)
          6. Made it illegal for public citizens or members of the press to examine the ballots after the election is over (2003)
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          2012 Terrorist Identification Chart

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          Thursday, January 05, 2012

          Constitutional Crisis Brewing?

          Be careful what you wish for, you just might get it -.
          But when Congress refuses to act, and as a result, hurts our economy and puts our people at risk, then I have an obligation as President to do what I can without them. (Applause.) I’ve got an obligation to act on behalf of the American people. And I’m not going to stand by while a minority in the Senate puts party ideology ahead of the people that we were elected to serve. (Applause.) Not with so much at stake, not at this make-or-break moment for middle-class Americans. We’re not going to let that happen. (Applause.)
          The Real Effect
          Well that didn't take long -
          In response a Constitutional Crisis emerges
          I will concede that I thought that the origin of this particular crisis would be economic in nature and not an overt power grab. Overall the result will be the same, but the rhetoric leads me to believe that time is not on our side.

          Look for the Republicans to object to this grab but to do nothing about it except bluster. After all, if challenging the guy's eligibility to be president, why would they care about what he does with the power when he gets it? Why?

          Because they want the power too.
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          Wednesday, January 04, 2012

          Iowa Post Caucus Analysis

          Well, the opening salvo for 2012 has been fired and what a doozy it has been.

          Observations so far:
          • All things considered, Ron Paul did amazing - When you factor in his complete lack of media coverage and backstabbing by the GOP, his results are all that much more encouraging.
          • Ron Paul won the most delegates. (Watch the Repubs change the rules)
            • From BI - Iowa's Republican caucuses are non-binding — they are technically just a straw poll, so once selected, delegates are free to vote for whichever presidential candidate they choose.
          • The "Iowa doesn't count" speech has disappeared. Convenient. 
          • Paul is polling 2nd in NH.
          • Santorum doesn't have the support structure or platform to make it much further. He is the flavor of the week.
          • Democrats support Ron Paul because they believe in him, not because they are messing in the elections.
          • There might be some statistical shifting (2, 3, 4) going on. Reports are that the entry and exit polls had Ron Paul at 30%. (Consistent with Drudge) If true, I don't believe it's enormous. Perhaps 2-3% was shifted from Paul to Santorum or Romney to create a "tie" there and make the story about those two and NOT about Paul's immense showing. Of course that "outside firm" would be the one fixing the results.


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          Tuesday, January 03, 2012

          Ron Paul Rockets Into the Lead In Iowa and History

          Not that the Powers That Be will let him keep it but the Drudge Report has Rep Ron Paul up 5% over Romney in online voting with 200,000 votes cast. In Iowa, the lead is even more stunning at 10%!

          Update 3: Shenanigans.

          The final Iowa vote count normally takes place at state party headquarters in Des Moines, but following dubious “security concerns” about Occupy protesters disrupting the tabulation process, the Republican Party of Iowa announced that it would be moving the final vote count to a secret undisclosed location.

          The move occurred despite Occupy protest leaders confirming there were no plans to disrupt the caucuses themselves.

          Update 2: "Unamed sources" and a variation on the race card again - Niiiice.
          As Iowa voters head to their caucuses tonight, some in the media are asking if Iowa is "too white, too evangelical, too rural" to accurately represent the political views of the country as a whole.
          Update: Who said the GOP were democratic? Rush floats the idea from Palin to force the nomination.
          ...and Sarah Palin said, it's time that we coalesce behind one conservative, have us all agree -- candidates and voters agree -- on one conservative to go up against Romney, after New Hampshire winning employing into South Carolina and be done with this.

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          Against All Odds...

          The man deemed 'unelectable' by the 'experts' among us -
          With the New Hampshire primary just one week away, two new polls have found Ron Paul is in a strong second place behind runaway leader Mitt Romney.

          Romney is practically a dead cert to take the primary, and has been for some time. Consequently Paul’s campaign and his supporters will undoubtedly be encouraged by such a strong showing with just seven days before voting begins.
          The Real Effect
          Let us remember in this new year who stood against Ron Paul.
          • The GOP - Influential members of the Republican establishment within the state are offering sweetheart deals to prominent voting blocks in key swing districts in order to “sway” the result and ensure Ron Paul doesn’t win. 
          • John Boehner
          • Rick Santorum - "Ron Paul is disgusting,"
          • Newt Gingrich
          • Michelle Bachman
          • Iowa Governor Terry Branstad - Denounced his own state's performance if Paul were to win.
          • Donald Trump 
          • Politico Strategist Roger Simon - “If Ron Paul wins Iowa, we just take it out,” 
          • Rush Limbaugh - “right now anybody other than Ron Paul could beat Obama if the election were tomorrow — easily.” "That audience goes nuts," Limbaugh said the next day. "I think, 'Oh, my gosh, what am I watching here?' "
          • Glenn Beck
          • Mark Levin - “I will do everything within my power, as limited as it is, to fight them every damn step of the way and if Ron Paul decides that he is going to go third party, which is detrimental to this nation and pulls a million votes, which is relatively insignificant in the big scheme of things, I will do everything within my power to defat his son in Kentucky,”  
          • Michael Savage - On December 29, Savage said on his popular radio show that Ron Paul is a racist “lunatic” who supports terrorist groups and hates Israel.  
          • Anne Coulter
          • Bill O’Reilly
          • Family Research Council President Tony Perkins 
          With all of the maneuvering behind the scenes, don't look to this year as beginning of ethics in politics.



          Note - This is a resource and will be updated as necessary.
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          Monday, January 02, 2012

          2012 Predictions



          Welcome to the 2012 Real Effect  predictions. What will 2012 hold in store for the world and the U.S. in particular? To answer this question is a daunting task and one that we strive to answer. For the last 6 months, concepts have been analyzed, positions questioned and rocks overturned to bring you the latest and greatest. Predictions are highlighted in bold. So, with that we're off to the predictions!

          New for 2012!
          Yearly Theme: Are we responsible for our own actions?
          This question becomes the fundamental litmus test for most every action and decision in the future.

          War - 2012
          The idea of a World War moves into the mainstream by becoming a probability instead of a possibility. People begin to realize that the only way presented to get out of this will be to fight. Let us pray that they realize who the correct people to fight are.


          War Starts With Civil War and a Resurgence of Nationalism
          Civil war leads the way as regional conflicts devolve into national wars.
           
          Nationalism takes center stage again as there is a temporary shift away from the "Union / Globalism" mentality in order to demonize and bury Nationalism once and for all. This can be observed in patriotic displays of loyalty to one's home country as the globalists demand fealty to their flag in an attempt to demonize it.

          The draft discussion becomes prevalent again. "Not enough boots to go around" combined with talks of "National Pride" and "Supporting one's country"

          Outright War 
          Start of the Asiatic war (Late Q3 - Q4) - With the US being over committed, it can't back up its positions in other countries, the East sees this and starts moving. Fires break out faster then they can be put out.  

          Theaters of war
          • Asia East - The riots and revolutions that the citizens have been participating in need an outlet. The rulers will direct this to local conflicts. Police crackdowns will be brutal, efficient and deadly.
            • Singapore - Led by an outright collapse in the market there.
            • China - Peace is easy to keep when you can throw money at it.
            • North/South Korea - Outright skirmishes, possibly full war. The new ruler of North Korea becomes convinced that he needs to demonstrate his and the country's resolve and the time is ripe.
          • Western Asia - especially deteriorate
            • Pakistan - Civil war OR expulsion of US troops starts in earnest. (Q2 - Q3)
            • Afghanistan - As the US moves into other regions, the MEK begins targeting remaining US troops.
          • Mideast
            • Syria  - It appears that the road to Iran lies through Syria. The US will try to draw in Hezbollah through "regime change". (Q1)
            • Iran - Time will tell on this one. Iran is a tough nut to crack as opinion is running contrary to Western interests here. IF the US gets Syria, Iran is next. There has been a lot of posturing in 2011, but no one has been able to capitalize. Look for the moral justification route being presented via Iranian "guerrilla forces" "destabilizing Syria and attacking US or NATO "peacekeepers".
            • Iraq - Destabilizes into sectarian violence with the north being especially unruly.
          • Africa
            • Uganda
          • North America
            •  US
              • Terror attacks - Like the 888 event, London's 2012 Olympics
            • Mexico - The War On Drugs steps up on the borders in Texas, Arizona, New Mexico and California 
              • This authorizes a FEMA reaction to stem the violence. We might get to see U.N. refugee action (This is already starting to an extent)
          • South America
            • Venezuela
          Economics
          The major economic focus shifts dramatically from Europe to Asia. The economic downturn moves to Asia, setting the stage for war with these countries later. Stagflation takes hold most everywhere
          • Asia
            • China/Taiwan/US - Chinese economy fails (Even now, the government is desperately trying to cover it up)
          • Russia, China
          • Europe
            • The European Union implodes completely.
              • Global TARP (EFSF) fails as firewall after firewall is breached
              • Ratings Agencies continue to downgrade countries and municipalities, not based on any metrics or logical sense, but rather out of a need to recognize the already obvious collapse that is in motion.
              • It may cease to exist nominally as the EU, but it's Phoenix Transformation still awaits.
          • North America
            • Canada staggers 
            •  The United States
              • Asset prices file in giant fits (20 - 40%) as positions are sold to protect themselves 
                  • Commodities
                    • Oil - Oil has solidified above $100. $130 - $150 is the next target with a Iran led upside of $200 - $250.
                    • Gold - Gold and silver have temporarily bottomed. Gold takes out $1700 easily and quickly closes in on $1800. After it breaches $1900, there is a sell off as the wild market fluctuations come into play. (Q1 +  Q2-) Target range is $2000 - $2300.
                    • Silver - Silver takes off like a lion again but also suffers just as badly. Initial stop is at $48 as it takes out the previous high. At this point speculators pile on and take it to $75. After this it gets destroyed back to the low $50 range.
                    • Copper - Decouples from industry and becomes a poor man's silver investment. (10 - 20% gains)
                    • Cotton
              •  US Dollar officially goes inflationary. Printing comes in one form or another
              • Posts first official negative GDP. (In response, the market tanks)
                • In response a Constitutional Crisis emerges (In truth it has existed for a long time)
                  • More "desperate" Keynesian solutions are floated as a dramatic attempt to "shock" the economy back to life. If enacted, it will ultimately fail. 
                  • Citizens favor giving less people more power to "fix" it (Note - This is one of the goals these bloodsuckers want) 
                  • Social programs are demanded in an attempt to 'restore America' but the economic argument now trumps 'societal values'. This leads to screeching about the inherit "injustice" present in the system as the freebies come to an end in austerity. 
                  • Things break down. As resources continue to dive, local alliances are formed to compete for these resources.
                •  Corporations now rule
                  • Repatriate the money - Corporations attempt to hide behind the Congress and demand a return of 'offshore funds'.
              • At least one state (Illinois?) seriously contemplates bankruptcy (In the end it ends up being bailed out by the Fed)
              • Food stamp use soars
              • The U.S. College bubble begins to pop as longstanding institutions begin to slash their budgets to remain solvent. Some even discuss closing outright. (Start of the "education crisis".) This will be a long recovery as the perception that "education" = "money and success" will be difficult to break.
                • Student loans start to slow (Rate) Teachers will lead the calls for more funding to be thrown at colleges in an attempt to "save education".
              • Existing home sales (SAAR) plummet by at least 10% with 15-20% being the more likely range. (4.5 million units to a bottom of 3.3 million units) Certain areas that were big on expansion before the crash, begin to resemble (Chinese) ghost towns. Eventually, gangs move into these areas abandoned by the local populace. 
              • Unemployment 
                • Unemployment Weekly Claims rise again (450,000 to 525,000) range. (2Q)
                • Unemployment Rate - Note: In 2011 I intentionally predicted a rise in the rate along with all of my other stunning positions for one reason. This is a non-lose scenario. If I predicted it would stay the same, it would obviously be correct. However, seeing my stunning clairvoyance on every other issue, why would I be so wrong on this one? Simple, because the government is fudging the numbers. By inaccurately predicting a rise, when one did not occur, it stands in sharp contrast to all the other prediction. One is left pondering - Just why is this number staying the same?

          Culture
          The mantra "The future is our hope" begins to become center to the recovery.  What is lost on everyone is that in order for this concept to work, you have to sacrifice now. You can't borrow from tomorrow at an inflated rate (interest) and expect tomorrow to be better when the underlying fundamentals have NOT changed.

          Men want to marry less due to the parasitical nature of women. This results in a "marriage/woman crisis" down the road. Churches begin to brow beat men into "growing up" and "accepting responsibility". (Already happening) This leads to a further schism in the churches as many churches become void of patriarchal leadership and shift aggressively to matriarchal influence. (This does not mean that men will not lead, but rather the male leadership will be massively influenced to the "injustices" being carried out on women. They will then accordingly enforce the desires of the female population.)

          Feminism takes one in the eye as mothers decide it's not economically worth it to work, but would rather stay home and raise their children.

          Metrosexual males start losing market value as they begin to be perceived as weak in the eyes of women everywhere as society stops valuing "fashion".


          Crime nationally rises dramatically. + 20 - 30 %(Theft skyrockets, homicides increase and assault is up. Suicides increase.)

          Police become a gang (Us vs. Them mentality intensifies) Small - medium riots emerge as the police overplay their authority. (Nationalize?) The cost of policing goes up substantially due to hazard pay, deaths and low enrollment. (Already starting to happen.) This leads to turf wars - (Black vs black, black vs Mexican, cop vs gang, cop vs Fed)


          Customers begin to get violent. The mantra has been get more for less these last 30 years, now individuals who have heard this their whole loves will run into the laws of supply and demand. (McDonald's raises their price of the $1 menu)


          Note: I reserve the right to edit these predictions until January 7, 2011.
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          Sunday, January 01, 2012

          2011 Predictions - Second Half Review

          As 2011 draws to a close and 2012 comes into view, we here at The Real Effect take stock of the predictions that have transpired over the last year.

          To be sure, this was a stunner of a year for us. Not only were the predictions even more specific, there were tons more of them. For instance, PIIGS had dominated the news in 2010, but the newly created EFSF wasn't even on anyone's radar, let alone the thought of most of Europe detonating.

          Of course we wasted little time in pimping ourselves out, noting the massive oil gains, silver gains, and a comprehensive look at all of them at the close of the first half.

          Time for review - (This is going to be a work in progress due to the enormity of the research required.)
          I redacted much of the filler material and left most of the "meat" in the post. August responses are in red.

          Total: (31/42 - 74%)

          Economy
          • Europe detonates, especially in the east - (Occurring now. +1)
            • Eastern Europe sinks to crisis level with reports of food shortages, rioting and widespread Depression. (+1)
            • Western Europe contracts massively, putting extraordinary pressure on the Euro. (+1) But the call out of Belgium isn't about revoking the Euro, rather about the preservation of the European Union and the need to 'pull together'. I would expect that we could begin to see propaganda calling for a United Europe in the face of "x" (economic crisis, terror, war). Ultimately in the endgame, foreign creditors feel the massive pinch as they try to protect their investments, but the lack of a favorable response by the people will lead to war with the far east, but not yet.
              • Bonds play an absolutely critical role with the European Financial Stability Facility taking center stage. (If that was any more accurate, I would be lethal. +1) The days of "free money" are coming to an end.
           
           Greek bank run....


          • United States
            • No recovery. The public is aware, but the media begins to be aware that all of the so-called recovery talk was nothing more than statistical nonsense.(No recovery and LOTS of crisis. +1 )
            • Consumer spending hits a wall and continues to decline moderately.(Reports are all falling.  +1)
            • The country faces the worst Christmas in at least 25 years. (I haven't found the numbers on this yet. +0/1)
              • As this plays out throughout the first quarter, this kills off many struggling chains or at a bare minimum, (barring "bailouts") sets the stage for later Corporate Death. (Even Wal-Mart is getting hit among other stores closing.)
            • Massive Unemployment U-3 goes to 11%, U-6 to 18.5%  (Yes, I know I'm asking for it) (The trend is finally moving back up to 9.2%, not 11% yet, but when the government bond bubble pops, it will get there in a hurry. +0/1)
            • The Employment rate continues to plunge (Yup, less people in the workforce. +1)
          • Actual Inflation is rampant and MASSIVE (+10-20%) (OFFICIAL inflation approached 4% repeatedly. +1)
            • Commodities - MASSIVE increases in cost. (+1)
              • Oil becomes a political issue again (Due to being dollar driven) It will easily top $100 a barrel and probably aim for $150 again. (Oil hit $114.18 in May,  hugged $100 for a few months, briefly collapsed to the support level $75 (Euro crisis) and is rapidly approaching $100 again. +1)
              • Gold - $1800 - $2000, Silver - $40 - 60 (Gold hit $1900 - Hold at $1700, silver $48 - Hold at $32. Right smack dab in the middle of both! +1)
                • Expect a massive rally in the first quarter of 2011, cooling off for the summer and then another strong rally at the back half of the year.(The first two happened, the rally appears to be being circumvented somehow. Detonating MF Global?)
                • Silver becomes especially difficult to physically source as the Comex cracks and demand goes up. (Perhaps hitting $40 in Q1, then cooling down until winter) It's been speculated that the MF Global default was to avert a Comex default.
              • Cotton - Clothing becomes expensive. This will eat away at many "cheap" clothing alternatives like Wal-Mart and Target. (Nymex saw a 30 - 40% jump in the 1st half of the year, to only fall hard on the second half. +.5/1)
              • Food becomes more expensive, shortages continue. (+1)
          • Local governments collapse
          • State governments stagger
            • Deficits swell as many budgets were predicated upon the "summer of recovery" which turns out to be less of a recovery and more of a flat-line. (We are learning now that many budgets were in fact based on growth scenarios in the range of 5-8% in some cases. Absurd. +1)
          • Federal government surges nominally. While appearing to die, the federal government starts consuming everything in a dire attempt to stay solvent. (Sink or swim mentality)
          • Foreclosure-gate rocks the world (It is entering the next phase, lawsuits. +1)
            • Housing prices decline nominally by at least 5% (As Vox Day points out this is the amount of the 2009 tax credit) more likely 10% and perhaps it gets as bad as 20%. (It's safe to say we got 5%, but there appears to be a dead cat bounce going on at the moment and with homes sales being revised down massively by the NAR, the contraction is coming. +1) (On a side note, "since the fourth quarter of 2007, C&D loans are down $374.3 billion or 59.5%.")
            • H.R. 3808 is resurrected by the Republicans and signed into law. (This will be seen as bipartisanship)(+0/1)
            • Individuals and companies attempt to protect their capitol by investing in anything that is inflation proof. (Silver and Gold are starting another bull run that will be eclipsed when QE3 is announced.)
          • Stocks sell off nominally, finally. (When priced to inflation, which is absolutely necessary, the markets are not only down nominally for the year, but tanking to the tune of 5%. While not a massive plunge, the S&P ended up down for the year. +1)
            •  Many of these institutions are holding a certain "value" on their books with regards to housing prices. If these values start plummeting, the banks will either be forced to seek another bailout or get crushed.
            • HFT (High Frequency Trading) becomes a mainstream term due to increasing exposure to the concept by the mainstream media. (Adobe)  (While increasing in discussion, it has hardly breached the mass consciousness. +0/1)
          War
          With much of the fallout from "The Currency War" devastating the global economies, the action leaves the banks and hits the courts eventually ending on the battlefield. (More towards 2012) (Starting already with 5 US wars. +1)
          • Worldwide, America is blamed for the global economic fallout.  (CDS, MBS securities) (Russia and China continue to point fingers. +1)
            • This stokes anti-American/liberty resentment which will find a place to mature later.
          • A world war by the end of 2012 (See the Religious War Series for details)  (+0/N/A)
          • North Korea/South Korea trade volleys, but do NOT go to war. (The North is flexing its nuclear muscles multiple times, the South is shooting at what it thinks are North Korean passenger planes. +1)
          Politics
          • The neoconservative version of the Tea Party takes its seats and promptly sells/blows out. (+1)
            • To be sure there will be plenty of grandstanding about "austerity", but sacred cows like defense spending, corporate welfare and education will be supported by the NeoTeas. (We saw this recently with the support for the debt ceiling increase. +1)
            • Critical legislation and opportunities (Like an End the Fed bill) are torpedoed by the appropriate sides.(+0/1)
            • I will go so far as to say that a major 'patriot' will betray the movement. (Here you go, Mitt Romney is our man. Haley endorses Mitt, Taxed Enough Already?, Romney. +1)
          • January - A lot of rhetoric, but not a lot of results. Talks by Republicans will resume of obstructionism and "dirty politics" by Obama. (+1)
          • Presidential Race heats up - May?
            • The third party "change" meme becomes more palatable, but not yet as frustrations lead to a party that will eventually become the Global Party
            • The cry will go out that 'In this hour, we cannot afford to be divided.' (+0/1)
          Religion
          After a massive downturn over the last 5 years, the remnants of much of the "religious right" get fed up with the left's "societal engineering".  This leads to the following -
          • Nationalistic denominationalism - The Christians return to the forefront with a vengeance as the Glenn Beck rally/Palin crowd embrace "Americana" nationalism and go after the infidels. (Look at that, there's Beck, whipping up the Christians and promoting war. Looks like Rick Perry is getting in on the act as well. +1)
            • The "founder's intent"/"What this country was founded on" ends up fueling a nationalistic religious fervor that seeks to incarcerate and make war anyone who doesn't see their light. (+0/1 Perhaps a bit early on that one.)
          But the rub lies in the fact that the left and the right are destined to destroy one another and lead to a new left/right party. (+0/1 - I don't know that we'll get this before 2012.)


          Culture
          • Worldly obsession with 'otherworldly' entities picks up steam but does not reach critical mass. Such items will include:
            • Aliens/Project Bluebeam (+0/1)
            • Angel/Demon gates (+0/1)
            • Of particular note is the relative juggernauts that the Denver Broncos and Green Bay Packers have become this season. Both teams are helmed by devout Christians.
          • In reaction to rampant criminality, virtues become fashionable/marketable again.
          • Crime increases - The desperate lower class sees the upper class as the reason for their suffering. Except the middle class will be their target, not the bankers. (Witness the riots in Wisconsin. #OWS in the second half.)
          Healthcare
          As Obamacare takes hold, in order to make the "system" solvent, the Government moves to do the following:
          • The licensing and eventual banning of vitamins and nutritional supplements. (Competition is a sin) (New FDA guidelines get us partway there. Banning of more supplements. +1/1)
          • Healthcare shortages are realized (Medicare is eyed up) as workers retire early en-masse in order to avoid being part of the system. Doctors especially become more scarce as new recruits refuse to enter the field. (And there is the evidence that doctors are leaving. +1/1)
            • A black market for health care becomes viable. (+0/1)
          Note: This post will be updated as information becomes available.
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          Friday, December 30, 2011

          An Indirect Metric of Paul's Popularity


          Notice how Kelly Clarkson, after praising candidate Ron Paul was rewarded in the market. From Amazon -

          The Real Effect 
          This is a very easy thing to understand. Ron Paul is a legitimate man that stands in stark contrast to most of the past and all of the current crop of presidential candidates. He is genuine, he is honest and most critically, he's consistent.

          Kelly Clarkson expressed genuine support for a genuine candidate. This in turn caused people to support her of their own accord! Not in some crazed PR manipulated set piece where you promise the world to people if they just go buy her album. This is genuine market growth in action and the type of organic response that is sorely needed if this country is going to rebuild itself. Do not underestimate your power or the combined power of others.

          Above all this proves that if you are true to truth, you will be rewarded by it in this life or the next.
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          Thursday, December 29, 2011

          U.S Poking Around Iranian Wargames, False Flag Imminent?

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          Wednesday, December 28, 2011

          Beware Misleading Articles

          An exercise in perception -
          Iran's navy chief warned Wednesday that his country can easily close the strategic Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, the passageway through which a sixth of the world's oil flows.

          It was the second such warning in two days. On Tuesday, Vice President Mohamed Reza Rahimi threatened to close the strait, cutting off oil exports, if the West imposes sanctions on Iran's oil shipments.

          In response, the Bahrain-based U.S. 5th Fleet's spokeswoman warned that any disruption "will not be tolerated." The spokeswoman, Lt. Rebecca Rebarich, said the U.S. Navy is "always ready to counter malevolent actions to ensure freedom of navigation."
          The Real Effect
          Let's examine this shall we?

          For starters, notice how the article and it's content is summarized for you? This is a convenient way of framing your comprehension of the facts being presented to you. (i.e. - Iran, the aggressor against the U.S.) This is designed to help you interpret the latter content in a different manner than what is actually being presented. (i.e. - U.S., the aggressor against Iran)

          But before we examine the front half of the article, let's examine the U.S. position presented
          Western nations are growing increasingly impatient with Iran over its nuclear program. The U.S. and its allies have accused Iran of using its civilian nuclear program as a cover to develop nuclear weapons.
          Note the word "accused". In the past, Iraq was accused of getting uranium yellowcake from Nigeria. This is the assessment that helped support the war which ultimately ended up being bogus. (Read as fraudulent) In this instance, if there was material proof that such a program was active, it would be waved from coast to coast at this point. It either doesn't exist or isn't strong enough to warrant a war.

          Given the lack of evidence thus far, how has the U.S. responded?
          The U.S. Congress has passed a bill banning dealings with the Iran Central Bank, and President Barack Obama has said he will sign it despite his misgivings.
          and
          The bill could impose penalties on foreign firms that do business with Iran's central bank. European and Asian nations import Iranian oil and use its central bank for the transactions
          Now, here is the critical portion of the article that gives us the proper context.
          Iran has adopted an aggressive military posture in recent months in response to increasing threats from the U.S. and Israel that they may take military action to stop Iran's nuclear program.
          Iran is being existentially threatened, therefore they are naturally responding with threats of their own.
          Iran's navy chief warned...
          More then likely the use of the word "warned" is to create the perception that there is an outright naked threat on behalf the Iranian nation. The use of this word could be called inflammatory because the proceeding does not follow the inclusion of that word. (At least in the manner that it is being presented.)
          ...that his country can easily close the strategic Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Persian Gulf...
          Saying something is possible is not tantamount to saying it is probable let alone a declaration of intent. In this instance, you have a sovereign country, Iran, that is already being targeted by destabilization efforts, sanctions, threats of war and a possible embargo on a necessary energy source (refined gas) and support for the nation. In this manner, Iran is acting consistently with a nation attempting to protect their "national interests".

          In short, be careful what you read and how.
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          Friday, December 23, 2011

          Ron Paul IS Winning




          Polls
          Nevada Primary Poll - 12/22/2011 (3rd Place)
          Mitt Romney 33.1%, Newt Gingrich 29.2%, Ron Paul 12.7%

          California Straw Poll - 9/18/2011 (1st Place)
          Ron Paul 44.9%, Rick Perry 29.3%, Mitt Romney 8.8%,

          MSNBC Reagan Debate Poll - 9/7/2011 (1st Place)
          Ron Paul 52.7%, Mitt Romney 16.3%, Rick Perry 13.6%

          Gallup Republican Poll - 8/25/2011 (3rd Place)
          Rick Perry 29%, Mitt Romney 17% (fell 6%), Ron Paul 13%, Michelle Bachmann 10% (fell 3%)

          Azimuth Research Group Texas Poll - 8/17/11 (1st place)
          Ron Paul 22%, Rick Perry 17%

          Ames Iowa Straw Poll - 8/13/11 (2nd place)
          Michele Bachmann 4,823, Ron Paul 4,671, Tim Pawlenty 2,293


          Rasmussen Pre-Poll - 8/9/11 (3rd place)
          Ron Paul placed third with 16%, following Mitt Romney at second with 21%, and Michele Bachmann in the lead at 22%.

          USA TODAY/Gallup Poll - 8/8/11 (3rd place)
          Ron Paul at third place among GOP contenders on a national level, with 14%. Second place was Texas Governor, Rick Perry with 17% and leading the field nationally is Mitt Romney with 24%. Michele Bachmann places a close fourth with 13%.

          CPAC Poll - 2/16/11 (1st Place)
          Ron Paul 30%, Mitt Romney 23%, Gary Johnson 6%

          CPAC Poll 2010 (1st Place)
          Ron Paul 31%, Mitt Romney 22%, Gary Johnson 6% , Sarah Palin 7%

          CPAC Poll 2009 (3rd Place)
          20% Mitt Romney, 14% Bobby Jindal, 13% Ron Paul

          Note: This is a resource and will be updated as necessary.
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          Thursday, December 22, 2011

          Merry Christmas Iran - It's On Like Donkey Kong

          Feliz navidad, uh...happy Bombmas and stuff cuz nothing celebrates the birth of the Lord better then taking out a countries fuel supplies -
          The Iranian news agency IRNA reported today that a U.S. missile hit an oil depot in the southwest village of Abadan on Wednesday. IRNA said British and American jets had entered Iranian airspace several times.

          In addition to the oil depot attack, two rockets reportedly hit the village of Manyuhi near the border of Iraq’s al-Faw Peninsula near the Persian Gulf and the Iraqi city of Basra.

          “In the border city of Arvand-Kenar, the invading American and British airplanes violated the airspace of the Islamic Republic of Iran three times,” a commander told the Islamic Republic News Agency.
          The Real Effect
          If this is in fact a legitimate story, look for the next set of chess pieces to start moving. I think it's going to be difficult to get Iran to react overtly at first because they know full well that the US will try and paint them as the aggressor. Therefore my assumption is that they may try and get the IAEA in the country sooner in an attempt to call NATO's hand.
          Iran also announced on Thursday its envoy to the Vienna-based United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency will meet with the agency’s top nuclear inspector in the first week of January to arrange a visit to Iran as soon as possible. “As far as we are concerned his team can come as soon as they are ready,” said Ali Asghar Soltanieh.

          If that's not possible or the hawks in Iran have their way, it's safe to assume that Iran will start directing their resources to take shots at US troops the world over in an attempt to start fires everywhere and destabilize the US military. Watch Syria, Lebanon, parts of Pakistan and specifically the Gulf as Iran stages new exercises.
          Iran on Thursday announced it will hold a military exercise beyond the Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Persian Gulf. The exercise may place Iranian navy vessels within proximity of U.S. warships in the area.

          According to the Associated Press, the announced Iranian exercise is Iran’s latest show of strength in the face of mounting international criticism over its controversial nuclear program.
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          Terrorism Charges Happening In the US

          The hyper-spastic reactions continue -
          An American citizen from Boston suburb was convicted on Tuesday on terrorism charges, but the charges were loosely defined and the verdict may represent a significant blow to free speech rights.

          Federal prosecutors claimed that Tarek Mehanna, 29, traveled to Yemen in 2004 with the hope of training as a terrorist and going on to fight American soldiers in Iraq. He failed to find any training camps, but returned home and allegedly promoted al Qaeda by writing about violent jihad against U.S. foreign policy on the Internet.

          Mehanna and his lawyers instead claimed that he traveled to Yemen to receive training to become an Islamic scholar and that his writings on the Internet amounted to free speech.
          The Real Effect
          Never mind the fact that we're ALL terrorists under Section 802 of the Patriot Act, this is further justification for case law that will be used in ever increasing definitions against the American populace during the coming Globalist Coup Civil War. Why would there be a war? Because they're going to take your goods of course.

          Update: You better not investigate a farm, you terr'ist, else we turn yer house into a glass parking lot!
          The FBI Joint Terrorism Task Force has kept files on activists who expose animal welfare abuses on factory farms and recommended prosecuting them as terrorists, according to a new document uncovered through the Freedom of Information Act.
          Something gives me this feel there's going to be a whole lot of these sorts of things coming out of the woodwork.
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          Wednesday, December 21, 2011

          U.S. Citizen Assasinations - Coming to a Town Near You

          Begining to understand where we are going yet or is it still tinfoil hat time -

          Turley said yesterday on C-Span (starting at 15:50):
          President Obama has just stated a policy that he can have any American citizen killed without any charge, without any review, except his own. If he’s satisfied that you are a terrorist, he says that he can kill you anywhere in the world including in the United States.
          Two of his aides just … reaffirmed they believe that American citizens can be killed on the order of the President anywhere including the United States.
          You’ve now got a president who says that he can kill you on his own discretion. He can jail you indefinitely on his own discretion
          The Real Effect
          Lest you think this is isolated, I cite the following so you can follow the rationale -
          Lawmakers in Louisiana are calling for National Guard troops to patrol the streets of New Orleans after a toddler was killed in a drive-by shooting. The last time troops were involved in domestic law enforcement in the state, they were used to confiscate legally owned firearms in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.
          Think of the military as sharks. They are really good at eating and if you have an abundance of something that needs to be eaten, well, you're in luck. Do you really want to open a swimming pool with sharks?

          "But wait!" you say "Think of it, there will be no fish in the pool because the sharks will eat them all."
          True. But there will also be no swimmers because they will either leave or get eaten.

          Such is the case with all military, if you have a need to bust heads and blow things up, they're your man and they will perform admirably. But the military, especially today's military, is not a peace keeping force. They are occupiers and that is what they will do, occupy, disarm and blow things up.

          Is this a good response to a shooting??? It is if you want to kill people. History indicates that these actions will escalate the violence, not end it.
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